Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Cameron's dodgy dossier

Fed-up with all of the contradictory forecasts and statements about the referendum on Britain's continued membership of the European Union?  You probably should look away.

I would like to see another forecast - I know, that suggests either some kind of a weird fantasy obsession or that maybe I am just sad but let me explain.

The UK Treasury have been burning the midnight oil and going into 'spreadsheet frenzy' to produce forecast after forecast that shows how much the UK economy would suffer if the UK electorate had the nerve/courage to vote for Brexit.  So I am not alone in wanting forecasts!  Maybe not even sad.

The latest forecasts suggests a 12% decline in the value of Sterling, an increase in unemployment of up to 820,000, house price declines of 10-18% and a deep recession as a result of the shock to the economy, from a Brexit.

Now, these Treasury economists are supposed to be smart and I suppose that the reason that they are getting the same 'results' as other forecasting bodies is because they are all using the same economic model.   So rather than being independent verification, as is being touted, we instead have a reiteration of the same result because the 'domesday' data input and the model used is largely the same.  The surprise would be if they came out with a different result.

I would like to see a forecast that looks at the impact of a Brexit, not on the UK economy but rather on the economy of the remaining EU countries.

The doomsayers include in their forecasts projections that immediately a Brexit vote is achieved the four horsemen of the apocalypse will descend.  We will have Pestilence, Famine, Death and of course War.  Additionally, overnight or close to it, the strongest growing economy in the EU will dive into recession.


What about the effect on Germany?  Or on France or the Netherlands?

In 2015, the Germans exported US $100 billion of their excellent cars and other goods and services to the UK.  They then imported just US $46.5 billion from the UK and so enjoyed a surplus of US$ 53.5 billion.

In the same year, France exported US$41.5 billion and imported $27 billion, so having a US$ 14.5 billion trade surplus.  The position for the Netherlands was exports to the UK of US$50.7 billion and imports of $34.2 billion, so a trade surplus of $34.2 billion.  I am not sure if that Netherlands import figure includes items that are 'imported' as part of a trans-shipment process through the Rotterdam super-port but you get the drift.

Now - still with me?- If the Sterling exchange rate did fall by 12% (why not 10% or 15%?) then this would make UK exports cheaper and if proper WTO duty rates, of around 4%,  were used, rather than the extremely high rates used in the Treasury model, then the falling exchange rate would completely eliminate the effect of any duties and would still provide an export boost.

Problem is though, that this 12% fall is one-sided.  It supposes that the other global economies would be okay and stable and only the UK would suffer from a Brexit.  Consider though the effect of the UK retaliating against Germany, France and the Netherlands, if they and the rest of the EU imposed  onerous customs duties on the UK.  If the UK did exactly the same and applied the same rates of customs duties, the economies of these countries would undoubtedly suffer and this would ripple on and impact the Euro exchange rate.   So maybe that 12% decline in Sterling's value is incorrect.

Let's suppose that the USA also followed the EU lead and imposed similar level duties.  Then the US economy and the US $ exchange rate would also suffer as they have a small trade surplus with the UK. Albeit not too much but the impact would not be benign.

We all know D'Israeli's saying about 'lies, damn lies and statistics' however, what we are being presented with are one-sided forecasts that simply serve the UK government's position.  In none of these 'forecasts' do we hear the impact of Britain's reduced contribution to the EU.  This is variously estimated at £55 million per day! Again, this would positively impact Britain and negatively impact the EU.  Those particular coins, unsurprisingly have two sides.  Nor is any of the positive effect of reducing the mountains of 'red tape' that strangle UK and EU business, shown.

Also consider that a fall in house prices would be a boon for all those young people trying to get on the housing ladder.  Yes it would negatively impact those people who speculate in the housing market - foreign flight capital, members of Parliament, etc., but overall, the effect would be positive.

In the past, UK Prime Minister, David Cameron spoke of presenting the case around the referendum to the British people and letting them decide.  Instead of doing this, he and his Chancellor, George Osborne are becoming ever more outrageous in the claims and use of data.  Indeed, they are starting to make Tony Blair's 'dodgy dossier' look like a respectable, sober and credible document!

George Osborne, speaking when he established the Office of Budget Responsibility, said that the need for this organisation, independent of the the government, was because in the past, HM Treasury forecasts were found to be biased and dubious because of the political interference.  So when we see the drivel now emanating from Osborne's Treasury we know that we need to filter any forecasts through the prism of number manipulation so as to achieve a pre-determined outcome.  In other words, don't trust or set any store by what they say - they say what their master - George Osborne - wants them to say.

To close, another forecast.

David Cameron has said today, that the cost of Brexit could add £230 to the cost of a holiday in Europe, for a family of 4.  Of this is a 'could' rather than a 'would' and of course this figure is 'supported' by the usual dodgy statistics and calculations from the widely discredited forecasts publishers.  However, let's say that this time, the number is right, does £57.50 a head sound a high price to pay for the restoration of Britain's long-held democratic traditions?  Britain has paid a far, far higher price to defend its democracy, in the past.  A price in blood and lives, not in £ sterling.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the unelected 'President' of the European Commission, who hails from Luxembourg, has threatened the UK by saying that 'deserters' can expect no assistance from the EU.   Well Mr Juncker, I suggest that you hit the history books.  Go back to the history of the second World War.  In 1940, after the fall of EU members France, Belgium and Netherlands, at the hands of the Nazi hordes, Britain, aided by its colonies and Commonwealth allies, stood alone against the Nazis.  Britain didn't desert Europe's people in 1940 and we won't desert them now or in the future.  Brexit will provide a liberating example for those Europeans now trapped within an anti-democratic EU.  Brexit will allow those countries that suffered under post-war Soviet domination, to experience true freedom and democracy, when the inevitable collapse of the EU occurs.

£57.50 a head for freedom - bargain of the century - where do I send my money?

Vote Brexit, shake off the yoke of anti-democracy which is weighing us down and restore Britain's freedom

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

The Referendum contradiction

What do you make of all the scare-mongering, AKA Project Fear,  that is coming out of the Remain camp, relating to the European Referendum?

I ask because there seems to be something of a contradiction in the whole thing.

On the one hand, we have David Cameron and his government fulfilling a manifesto commitment and organising a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU, following a 'renegotiation' of the terms of membership with other EU members.

On the other hand, David Cameron and his acolytes in the Cabinet and the Remain camp, including some members of the security services and some members of the military, are telling us that if the UK does indeed Brexit, then we will experience:

  • Economic dislocation and a contraction in the UK economy
  • Immediately depreciating value for the Pound Sterling.  
  • The shock effect could lead to serious conflict in Europe - war and such - indeed some have mentioned Brexit being a potential cause for World War 3 starting.  
  • The UK would also become immediately more vulnerable to a terrorist attack as the European partners, with which we currently share intelligence, would cut-off cooperation. 

The economic consequences have been batted back and forth and the outcome depends upon the individual's overall view on Brexit.  However, surely a depreciation in Sterling would be expected to make the UK's exports cheaper and so would be a boost for the UK economy.

In terms of the intelligence sharing.  The most effective and important partnership that the UK participates in, is the Five Eyes programme.  This intelligence sharing agreement is between, Australia, Canada, New Zealand , USA and the UK.  You will note the lack of any other EU member.  You will understand that this mutually beneficial cooperation programme will continue whatever the outcome of the EU referendum.  Indeed, you will have heard from Cameron and Co. how the UK's GCHQ intelligence centre is one of, or maybe is the foremost of such centres, in the world.  Indeed, possibly equal to or only just surpassed by the USA's capabilities. A former head of the CIA essentially discounted other European intelligence service capabilities and posited that the EU sometimes get in the way of intelligence gathering and sharing.

In terms of war and peace in Europe (including in the EU countries),  it is NATO that has ensured the peace, for the last 67 years.  Certainly not the EU.  I have posted  on this earlier blog regarding the EU's contribution to the situation in Ukraine.  If this is what EU membership saving us from war is about, then the UK is better-off out rather than running the risk of getting pulled into a European conflict because of the  EU's naive and dangerous meddling.

But back to the contradiction.

If we, for just a single moment, accept the clap-trap that is spewing forth from Cameron and the Remainians, then why on earth is Cameron holding this referendum?  If the risks are so great - don't know about you but WW3 and Armageddon are up there for me - why hasn't the vote been canceled? Indeed, why were none of these arguments put forward by Cameron and Co., before legislation on the EU referendum was put before Parliament?  Or at the very least during those debates on this?.

Call me cynical but I suspect that these 'fears and risks' don't actually exist.  They are just being dreamt-up now.  There will no doubt be more in the days and weeks to come.  I ask you to apply the contradiction test to them.  If Brexit is so dangerous, why are we having the vote?

I suppose we should at least be grateful that the Remainiacs haven't (yet) invoked biblical plagues being inflicted on the UK.  Fire, pestilence, bugs, boils, etc.  There's still time though.

As before, the solution is - Vote Brexit!

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

EU and Elephants

Don't worry, this isn't about circuses or zoos.  Though, before I move on, and given just as something that 'tickled' me. I came across a lovely Polish saying, on Twitter.  Not my circus, not my monkeys - so not my problem.

Anyway, back to the European Union and Elephants.  Or rather, the Brexit vote and Immigration.

There. I said it.  I used the immigration word.  Naughty me!

Immigration though is a key, maybe the key factor affecting Britain's relationship with the EU.   Ronald Reagan is famously quoted as saying 'a nation that cannot control its borders is not a nation'. Within the European Union, that is the position in which the UK finds itself.

I have posted on this blog before about all of the fallacious and specious economic arguments put forward by those that want Britain to remain in the EU.  Simply put, they are wrong, they are based on unfounded fears that the EU will, as a result of a vote to Brexit, punish its largest single export market. Isn't going to happen, so let's move on.  

We can also discount the somewhat deranged comments from David Cameron, who seeks to suggest that a vote for Brexit could lead to World War 3.  Suppose for just a second that this was true.  Why then would he risk such a situation by holding a referendum that might produce a Brexit vote?   Oh I know he only offered the vote to scupper UKIP but still, if he actually believes what he said, then it is madness to continue with a vote.  Truth is, just as Cameron said earlier, as recently as February 2016, the UK can survive outside of the EU.

So let's look at immigration.

The numbers of people that are immigrating to the UK, from within the EU seem to be incredibly difficult to obtain.  Then when they are published they don't add up - more on that in a moment.  

According to the most recent numbers of immigrants, in the year to September 2015, the numbers were

55,000 from the EU 2 - Bulgaria and Romania, up from just 5,000 in 2007.

69,000 from the EU 8 - Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. This is up from 53,000 in 2004.

130,000 from the rest of the EU countries , up from 53,000 in 1991.

These total to 257,000 when rounding is taken account of.

One issue with these numbers, is that the number of new National Insurance (Social Security) numbers that were issued in the same period was 630,000.  The UK government has so far failed to explain who received the 'missing' National Insurance numbers.

We need to consider, why these people are coming to the UK.  I doubt it is the weather.

The strong suspicion is that people are coming to the UK because of the strength of the UK economy and the economic benefits that are available.  Add to this the disparity in the UK minimum wage and that prevailing in the 'sending' countries as well as 'in work benefits' and we have a cocktail mix that guarantees the attractiveness of the UK as an immigration destination and, most importantly, one that will continue.  

But I am getting ahead of myself.

Based on recent data, from 2015, the minimum monthly wage in the UK is Euro €1,378.

In countries that are suffering IMF/EU and World Bank restrictions, countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal, the rates are €684, €757 and €589 respectively.

In Bulgaria and Romania the rates are €194 and €235 respectively.

In the so called EU 8, Czech Republic €335,, Estonia €390, Hungary €345, Latvia €360, Lithuania ¢325, Poland €410, Slovakia €380 and Slovenia €791

The minimum wage in the UK acts as a magnet for economic migrants from EU countries.  For some of these people, they can come to the UK, take-up a low-paid job and be far, far better-off than they would be in their home country.

Then add to this 'in work benefits'.  These are things like Working Tax Credits.  This is an invention of the fiscally incontinent former Chancellor, Gordon Brown.  These effectively subsidise companies by providing workers with taxpayer-funded handouts which supplement the low wage they are receiving.   For those migrants from low minimum wage countries, this just makes the UK look like a better and better choice.   Add in child benefit - another taxpayer-funded handout and a migrant would be crazy to go anywhere else.

Note I am clear, in my mind and media comment supports this, that migrants do not typically come to the UK to be 'benefits scroungers' who will 'sponge' off of the welfare state.  Rather they come to the UK to work.  Many of them end-up doing the work that work-shy, benefit dependent simply won't do.
David Cameron's much vaunted 'victory' at the EU summit, on the UK having the ability to apply some kind of 'emergency brake' on benefits to EU immigrants is essentially worthless.  These people do not come here for the benefits, they come here for jobs.

The problem for the UK though is more about available resources.

The NHS is straining under its current load.  In reality, it cannot cope, today.  On any reasonable metric, the NHS is failing.  It isn't even a question of money - the NHS gets flooded with taxpayer money.  The problem is human and infrastructure resources.  Not enough doctors, nurses and hospitals. The requirement for these resources cannot keep up with ever increasing demand.  The existing population is living longer and that is a challenge so you can imagine what kind of a burden an extra 257,000 people  places on the system.

The problems facing the NHS are replicated in schooling and housing.  It has been estimated that more than 50% of all new homes that are being built (and there's nowhere near enough of them, for 'locals') will be needed for immigrants.  It has been estimated that a new house would need to be built, every 6 minutes, just to keep pace with the housing of EU migrants.  That's 240 a day, every day.
Classroom sizes in certain areas are approaching 3rd World levels.  Oh and not all of the children , or their parents, speak English, which places a further burden on an already over-loaded system.

So immigration on this scale is simply not sustainable.  London is said to have an immigrant population of greater than 50% and there are parts elsewhere in the UK, where the indigenous population are feeling swamped.

Oh, and on top of the 257,000 people from the EU, there was a further 273,000 immigrants from outside the EU.

And then, just around the corner is Turkey.  Germany, suffering under Merkel's madness has agreed to 'energise' the ascension of Turkey, with its 79 million population, into the EU.  Consider that Turkey has a monthly minimum wage of €425.  How many of them might want to upscale their earning capacity and move to the UK?  Turkey being a predominantly Muslim nation then layers religious and cultural differences on top of the immigration problem.

The only realistic solution for the UK is for the country to take control of its borders and to restrict the number of people that can come to the UK.  In reality this would mean very dramatically reduce the number coming in.  It would mean ending working tax credits for immigrants and child benefit, unless the child accompanied the immigrant - many currently don't but stay in their home country.

Saying the above, it is therefore crystal clear that the UK must vote leave - Brexit - on June 23rd.  Not doing so, will simply lead to further and ever increasing deterioration in public services as well as a sense of alienation and non-belonging for the native population.

So, consider, then do your duty and vote Brexit.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Treachery from No. 10

Some might say that treachery is too harsh a word but I use this with intent.  The dictionary definitions all talk about betrayal of trust, deception, disloyalty and bad faith.  That seems to be a clear description of what has just transpired in London.

Charitably, we might say that the treachery came from over-zealous Number 10 speechwriters though I am minded to think that the words were all pre-approved by David Cameron, himself.

From Barack Obama, I didn’t expect anything positive.  Nothing to represent the wishes of the people of Britain.  After all, he is a strong proponent of the elite running the world rather than the voice of the people being heard.  Consider how he ignores the wishes of the American people and tries to rule by ‘Executive Order’ like a latter-day emperor.  I have long suspected Obama of being anti-British and his latest statements support my belief. 

I suppose he was influenced by his Kenyan father.  An awful lot of Africans raised in the colonial era, turned to the left for their political teaching and sought to blame their previous colonial  for the ills that befell their country, especially, post-independence.  It never occurs, to these people that having now enjoyed independence for 50+ years the mess that their countries are in, can be traced back to the imposition of left-wing ideologies that were not suited to Africa and, being left-wing, were always doomed to failure. 

But I digress.

Obama’s words and particularly the use of the British word ‘queue’, instead of the American ‘line’  are redolent of Cameron’s Project Fear team.  Number 10’s fingerprints are all over Obama’s threat to put a UK trade deal at the back of the line.  This man talks of a ‘special relationship’ and then threatens?  That is not the tone that Americans use, when talking to friends.  Obama’s words shame Americans. 

That won’t come as a surprise to many right-thinking Americans.  The Nobel Peace prize winner has a highly vindictive streak which he has displayed on many occasions, though mostly to his domestic ‘enemies’ (those who dare to disagree with the sainted Barack).

So back to Project Fear.

As has been said before, without a trade deal, UK exports to, and imports from, the US would be subject, under World Trade Organisation tariffs, to rates of 0-4%.  Hardly significant.  Indeed, one might wonder why we would even bother with a trade agreement.  But think of this another way, too.  The UK is the 5th largest export market for the USA.  Exports total $56.4 billion or 3.8% of total US exports.  Germany represents a $49.9 billion market for American goods or 3.3% of total.  However, the UK exports $58.8 billion to the USA or 2.5% of US imports.  Germany, on the other hand exports $126.5 billion to the USA.  So the UK has a miniscule trade surplus with the USA of $2.4 billion while Germany has a surplus of $76.6 billion.  Put another way, British and American workers benefit, just about equally from the trade between the two countries, however, American workers are severely disadvantaged by the heavy trade imbalance it has with Germany.

Many people who voted Conservative in the May 2015 General Election, will have done so because they trusted the Tories.  They trusted their economic competence, probably above all else.  However,  I am sure that many didn’t migrate in droves to UKIP because they saw that only the Conservatives could actually deliver a referendum on EU membership.  At the same time, they would have expected that when the choice was presented to the British people, then something approaching fair play, would be deployed. 

Instead, we are seeing more and more dirty tricks being used.  Obama’s threat is just the latest in a long line of statements and half truths and out-right lies that are being pedalled by the Remain campaign. 

So let’s be clear, since we are talking about trade and I apologise to regular readers, for having to repeat it. 

Without a formal trade treaty , WTO tariffs apply and these range from 0-4%.

Remainians need to explain why, Germany and France, indeed the  whole EU would not seek to swiftly conclude a trade deal with an independent-again UK.  The UK represents a very large existing export market  for both of those countries.  Who, in their right mind (so that caveat probably excludes the In crowd) would throw away such an advantage?  You will have seen French farmers protesting, in the past and seen how disruptive they are.  Imagine the protests when a major market becomes shut to them, because of a fit of pique from the Eurocrats in Brussels.

The big issue with trade isn’t that a treaty couldn’t be concluded, within the self-imposed 2 year time-frame.  The big issue is why, no preliminary steps are being taken on this matter.  I know that some might say ‘well if we vote to remain, then we will have wasted money’ but please – suddenly we are worried about government waste?  What about flipping that on its head and saying that any prudent government has a duty to consider and plan for all possible outcomes. Instead of Cameron stacking the deck against a Leave vote and seconding civil servants to the In campaign, resources should be assigned to the ‘what if’ camp.  As in ‘what if the UK votes to regain its independence, what are the implications and what do we do’?

Obama has failed in the USA – he has spent the best part of eight years, creating division in America.  Destroying the US economy, politicising appointments and public discourse, like no other President before him.  That is the ‘legacy’ for which he will be remembered.  Fortunately, his term of office has less than a year to run.  You will have noted though, his presumption that even out of office, he can dictate that any UK treaty request will be ‘back of the queue’.  At least he thinks he can.  The problem with jumped-up emperors is that they start to believe their own narrative – there is no delusion like self-delusion.

So Obama’s threat is anyway empty.  It is unbecoming America but there you go.

The treachery from Number 10 is far worse though.  Many Conservatives will struggle to forgive the badly-advised Cameron.  He has said he will resign as PM before the next election – no doubt in time (if he delivers an In vote) to take-up his reward as the next EU President!.  The prospects for George Osborne to succeed him are fading fast.  Theresa May and Philip Hammond too.   Maybe Boris Johnson will get the nod from the Conservative Party, though I wouldn’t discount Michael Gove’s chances.

My advice to Conservative voters, in the upcoming local elections is don’t vote or vote UKIP.  Cameron and his clique do not represent Conservative values and, just as importantly, don’t listen to those that do.  Their actions, since before the launch of the official EU Referendum campaigns has been all about doing what is right for themselves and not doing what is right for the country.  The negotiations were a farce, from start to finish.  The end result? A worthless document that was being rubbished before the press release was even wet off the presses.  And has continued to be down-played by the EU elite, ever since.  You would know this if the UK media hadn’t already bought into Cameron’s lies and deceit, from day one.

The treachery of Cameron and Co. cannot go unpunished.  Patriots who have faith in the UK to stand as an independent nation, as we have done so for so much of our history, only have their vote with which to punish Cameron.  Use it wisely and vote Brexit.  And it wouldn’t be a bad thing to give them a hammering at the local elections, either!

Sunday, April 17, 2016

EU half-truths

Have you received the propaganda leaflet from the UK government yet?  What did you do with it?  Straight in the bin? Read it?  I tore mine up and sent it back to the Conservative party at their FreePost address.  That way, Cameron’s party can pay 70p for the privilege of getting my response to their one-sided  and factually dubious document.

If you do bother to read this, you will immediately notice the innuendo and half-truths that run throughout.

The document states that 3 million jobs depend on the EU.  That is simply not true.  It has been estimated that 3 million jobs are dependent upon trade with the EU.  The fear that this so called ‘fact’ seeks to generate is that these jobs will disappear if Britons vote to leave the EU.  This is complete poppycock, utter rubbish, totally false – choose your own understanding.  As stated, these jobs are based on trade with the EU.  They are not dependent on membership of the EU.  The EU nations who trade with the UK do so on the basis of merit not charity.  They buy goods and services from the UK because those goods and services are offered at an acceptable level of quality and price.  If you read this leaflet you won’t find that in there.  You will just find the hint that these jobs will suddenly disappear if you vote leave.  This is shoddy and unbecoming a UK government.

The UK has attracted £540 billion of foreign direct investment over the last 10 years.  This  investment came about because of the UK’s pro-business policies not because of the EU. Policies that encourage businesses and allow for things like ‘zero hour’ contracts.  Policies that have led to a diminishing of union power, such that strikes are now a rarity, most obviously within the private sector.  Policies that allow for a reasonable relationship between employer and employee.  In certain EU countries, an employer doesn’t so much employ a worker as adopt them – it can be next to impossible to terminate employees when times get hard.   The UK is also moving towards a low company tax position, which also helps investment, though, meddling with other ‘taxes’ might erode this plus point.

The leaflet suggests that on balance and on the judgment of the UK government, the UK gets a good deal from the EU.  Consider, the UK contributes £350 million each week to the EU budget.  Of this, something less than half returns as grants and subsidies.  That means that around £175 million stays in the EU.  This pays for the fat cat tax free salaries and very generous pensions of the Eurocrats in Brussels.  It also subsidises certain EU industries, particularly otherwise inefficient ones, such as agriculture.  Irony alert.  The EU subsidises EU agriculture and puts trade barriers in the way of imports from developing countries.  Then because these countries, in Africa, for example, cannot export to the EU, their farmers suffer and so the EU then gives them aid.  Lewis Carroll couldn’t have dreamt up such idiocy!

Suppose that this £175 million was instead spent in the UK.  Or rather used to pay down the UK National Debt.  This currently stands at £1.6 trillion.  In a year, the UK could reduce this by £9.1 billion – not a huge amount but a start.  Further reductions could be made, because NHS spending and spending on schools and housing and welfare, would not need to be an increasing spiral to meet the demands of a rapidly rising immigrant influx.  This surely is the best way to secure the future for our children and grand children.  Far, far better a solution than shackling our country to the EU where, in countries such as Spain and Greece, youth unemployment is in excess of 50% - is that the future we want?  The EU is failing the old, failing the taxpayers and failing the youth and future generations.

Much is made by the UK government and various international organisations and of course the world’s former darling, President Obama, of the risk to the world economy from a ‘leave’ vote.  Inflation in the UK is threatened because of the instability.  At other times and when not discussing the EU vote, inflation is being positively encouraged by economists and world leaders as a cure to the stagflation that is facing world economies.  Go figure!

As per the leaflet, supposedly losing the UK’s full access to the EU’s Single Market would make exports to Europe ‘harder and would increase costs’.  Note the conflation of Europe and the EU.  The EU is not Europe it just contains a number of European countries, not all of them.  Note also the certainty.  Not might make exports hard but definitely would.   How on earth can anyone say that?  No discussions on a post-Brexit settlement have been undertaken so how can anyone say with such certainty that this would be the case?  Pure and simple, scare-mongering.

Then the leaflet claims that the rise of budget airlines and cheaper flights is down to the EU.  Even if it were true (and I seem to recall that the USA and Asia have such low-cost carriers without the aid of the EU), does anyone really believe that post-Brexit, airfares throughout Europe will suddenly increase and we would be back to the highly inefficient state-run monopoly airlines, of the past?

Now look at the benefits of the renegotiation that Cameron’s government ‘achieved’.

The UK now has a ‘special status’ in a reformed EU.  This special status means that we will not have to join the Euro.  We will not be part of further political integration, we will be able to impose ‘tough (their words, not mine) restrictions on welfare immigrants who have not contributed to the UK social security system and there is a commitment to reduce ‘red tape’.

When I read of the victories and major concessions I seethe.  That we have come to this.  The UK is allowed to not join the Euro or follow further political integration.  The UK is an independent sovereign nation.  The UK has been such an entity for hundreds of years before many of these countries existed!  But now we are to be allowed.  Excuse me if I sound less than grateful.  The UK doesn’t need to be allowed such concessions.  We have them by right.  They have been hard-won and paid for in blood through wars and struggle.  I hate to hark back to the second world war but the UK then stood alone in Europe, against the Nazis.  Without the UK and its allies from its colonies and dominions, Europe would have been under the Nazi boot, for ever.  No bureaucrat in Brussels or newly established democracy can give us these rights.  Nor can they take them away.

This document has cost something like £9.3 million to publish and distribute.  Cameron’s government spuriously claim that it is not unfair to publish this at taxpayer expense, because the ‘government has a view’ and wants to push that view.  Can you imagine the outcry there would be if, going into a General Election, which is a referendum on the governing party, the government of the day, published, at taxpayer expense, a defence of its policies and its future political programme?  Everyone would see it for what it is.  Government propaganda more usually associated with tin-pot dictators in banana republics.

This leaflet shames British democracy.   In a recent poll by YouGov, 53% of those people that expressed a definite opinion, said that the government’s actions were unfair.  Much is made of Cameron’s public school education (Eton) – well he doesn’t seem to have picked-up the sense of fair play that is supposed to epitomise such institutions.

I suppose, as an ever more committed ‘Brexiteer’, I should be happy.  This document and the secondment of government officials to bolster the ‘In’ campaign speak to the desperation of that campaign.  Lies aren’t working, unfair play isn’t working.  No matter how they bend the rules to try and achieve an ‘In’ vote, the people are stubbornly sticking to their guns.  At the moment, Brexit and In are neck and neck.  More immigration stories and such and the argument swings more and more in favour of the UK regaining control of our country, once more.

The only choice now, is Brexit.  Use your vote and use it correctly.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Brussels follow-up

What do you make of what is happening in Brussels and Paris? 

Terrorists, acting in the name of the religion of peace exploded two bombs at the airport and another one on an underground train and killed more than 30 people and injured, many very seriously, more than 270 souls.

Since these callous attacks, Belgium’s police and intelligence services have finally sprung to life.

A long held belief was that the Belgian authorities turned a blind eye to radical Islamists and in return these terrorists didn’t ‘misbehave’ in Belgium.  That ‘compact’ has been well and truly broken. 

Brussels, or Jihadi Central, as it has sometimes been called, has come to realise that when you keep a poisonous snake, you must keep it properly caged, otherwise it will attack its hosts. Or you must remove the cause of the venomous nature.

You can’t blame the snake – that’s its nature.  It’s all it knows.  It’s what it is taught, day in and day out.  It starts at it’s mother’s breast, carries on through a schooling that is  dominated by a warped and murderous  religion and then is fed daily by local communities who are constantly told, by their liberal hosts that they are entitled and special and don’t need to assimilate into their host society;-

·      that it’s okay to mistreat women – because that’s your culture
·      that it’s okay to practice ritual slaughter – because that’s your religion
·      that it’s okay to mutilate women - because they are inferior
·      that it’s okay to ignore host country law – because you have Shariah law
·      that it’s okay to impose your Shariah law on non-believers -  because their dress or following entirely legal activities, such as drinking alcohol or eating pork, offends you.

Finally, Brussels authorities are now starting to make arrests.  In the course of the last few days we have learned that many of these terrorists were ‘known’ to the authorities.  One of the bombers was deported by Turkey, who advised the Belgians that he was a dangerous militant, and yet received no punishment or surveillance upon his return to Belgium.  Another is on the USA’s terror watch list but is allowed to roam free in Brussels.

Some of this Belgian activity is spilling over into France.  Arrests have been made their, seemingly made on the basis of information that they have received from the Belgians.  This does though, call into question all of those platitudes that were mouthed after the Paris attacks in November 2015.  It also calls into question all of the prattling we hear about close cooperation between the intelligence services of European Union members.  The EU Home Affairs Commissioner, Dimitris Avramopoulos, told the BBC ‘the ‘deep state’ resists and we must change this attitude.  I know it is not easy to start thinking more European, but it is a must’.   This despite the assertions by Rob Wainwright, head of Europol, that British membership of the EU was so critical to Britain’s security!

A former director of America’s CIA has said that ‘the European Union, in some ways gets in the way of security services’.  He went on to say that that the EU was ‘not a natural contributor to national security’.

Speaking of Americans, can President Obama ever become any more crass? People are killed – people including Americans – and Obama then spares a minute or two, to criticise the killers, using his trademark absence of mentioning the religion of the killers.  Then it is straight on to a baseball game, sitting alongside the totalitarian Castro and indeed, indulging in a ‘Mexican wave’ and generally enjoying himself.  Then, just in case he hadn’t offended enough, he heads off to Argentina and goes for a tango photo-op. 

American Presidents are always concerned about their ‘legacy’.  For me, the photographs of Obama doing a Mexican wave or dancing a tango will rank alongside other completely inappropriate ‘photo-ops’ to serve as his legacy – that and the racial and social division that he has promoted in America and the abandonment of America’s leading global role.

I hope that the openness we have seen and heard, in recent days continues.  That we will continue to learn of the failings of these security services.  This openness is the only way that they will learn and improve.

It is not just the security services that need to learn, though.  European societies need to learn the fundamental lesson that multi-culturalism doesn’t work.  Migrants must assimilate into their host societies.  These host societies cannot tolerate parallel communities to exist alongside their native born citizens.  They cannot allow alternative legal systems to operate – there can only be one body of law and that must be the national one.

Have a Blessed Easter and celebrate the Risen Christ