Sunday, June 26, 2016

Negotiating Brexit - the basics

Firstly, some health advice.  Everyone just calm down.  We have had a referendum. We, as the people of the United Kingdom, made a choice and we will live with it.

Also, let's be very clear.  The United Kingdom is still a full and functioning member of the European Union.  We are still subject to all of the rules that membership imposes.  All those people who are accusing the Leave campaign of not fulfilling campaign promises need to understand that no substantive changes can occur while we remain a member of the EU.  Politicians and media commentators already know this and should think very carefully before they, for presumably personal gain, push and publish statements to the contrary.

And think back to last Friday.  Did the sun come up?  Did you go to work and do the same things that you did on Thursday and Wednesday? Was the price to fill-up you car or shopping trolley, the same as the previous time? Has the government suddenly declared we are on a war-footing?  Did Germany stop exporting cars to us and the French, wine?

Wasn't there an old WW2 poster about Keep Calm and Carry On ?

OK, so may as well address the elephant in the room, at the outset.

Nigel Farage should almost certainly take no public part in the negotiation with our (still current) EU partners.  None.  He is far too divisive and incapable of not gloating.

These negotiations are the responsibility of the UK government.  That government is formed by the Conservative Party and currently led by David Cameron.  Cameron has made it clear that he wants someone else to lead his party and the negotiations and so any team-forming must await the outcome of the Tory leadership campaign.  That might frustrate the likes of Jean-Claude Juncker but that's just tough.

I said, at the outset, that Farage should take no part.  Of course that is down to the new Conservative leader but I see no reason for Farage to be a member of the team.  The Conservative Party have a large number of very capable MPs who could participate and anyway, the bulk of the work needs to be carried out by the Civil Service, once they have been given their very clear, marching orders.   The latter point is critical, the Civil Service need to be told, in no uncertain terms that they are to broker a deal that is in the UK's interest and that matches the democratic decision of the people of the UK - a departure (Leave if you will) from all of the institutions of the European Union.

Fundamentally though, it is the Conservative Party that must shoulder the bulk of the work.  They may bring in and take advice from non-Conservative Party advisers but it is the role of the Conservative government to lead and get the job done.

As regular readers would expect, I have a few opinions on the whole process.  Here goes.

Assuming that he isn't chosen as the leader of the Conservative Party, I would propose David Davis, the MP for Haltemprice and Howden, as the leader of these negotiations.  Davis has been a long-time Euro-sceptic but is not so hide-bound that he cannot build bridges across the political spectrum - he was elevated in many people's opinion with his principled opposition to increased detention periods.  He also has a good 'back-story' and has repeatedly shown that he is 'no one's fool' and is not easily brow-beaten.  I would certainly trust him to represent Britain's interests but to do so in a British manner - not rubbing the EU's nose in it.

I believe that the negotiating team would benefit from cross-party participation - Kate Hoey and especially Gisela Stuart were very impressive during the campaign.  Jim Sellars from Scotland and Arlene Foster from Northern Ireland would also be great contributors.  As would Dan Hannan, who could bring his considerable inside knowledge to bear.  Douglas Carswell would also be a sound contributor as would be Suzanne Evans.

As you will note, all are Brexiteers.  It makes little to no sense to have people that passionately believed in Remain, sitting in the team and possibly thwarting the wishes and aims of the people of the UK.

The issues on which we need resolution are clear, and given the febrile atmosphere, now and here isn't the place. to discuss them.

That said, one thing needs to be made crystal clear.  EU migrants, that are now in the UK, should be immediately reassured that there residence is not in jeopardy.  They must be allowed the comfort of knowing we welcomed them before and welcome them now.  This is something that David Cameron can and must state, immediately.

More to follow but for now, let us all remain calm and a British sense of perspective.

Saturday, June 25, 2016

We chose, we choose

This post is mainly aimed at the people of the UK and the leaders of EU countries.

Firstly though, I have to say wow, just wow!  A referendum result that has made me very, very happy.  Even more happier than the result of the Scottish Independence Referendum.  Of course there will be  some challenges ahead but we are British, we have overcome challenges before and will do so again.

David Cameron, before he resigned (quit?) said that we are not a nation of quitters and we aren't.  We stick with the right path rather than just taking the easy one.


The people of the UK chose to leave the European Union.  More than 33.5 million of us registered a vote and chose, by a margin of 52:48 to leave.  The majority chose to ignore the merchants of fear and chose to decouple us from the failed European Union project.  We never chose to sign-up to ever political union, we originally chose to join a Common Market but the corporatists and socialists of certain European countries want to become submerged in a political union.  That's their choice - though in typical EU fashion,  their people aren't being asked - but we have chosen a different course.  We wish them well.

Go back to the start of the last paragraph.  The people of the UK chose to leave the European Union.  This was a question put to the whole of the UK and a decision reached by the whole of the UK.  The talk of a second Scottish Independence Referendum, coming from Nicola Sturgeon is anti-democratic and is pure mischief making from her.  I really believe that if she was in a party of three or more enjoying a dinner out and one of the party said 'red or white wine'  and she was in the minority, she would immediately call for her democratic rights be respected and for a new Scottish Independence Referendum to be called.  Opportunist doesn't even come close.

Sturgeon is mischief making.  She knows full well that Foreign Affairs is not a devolved responsibility.  This is a power reserved to the Westminster parliament.  All this talk about asking Brussels to consider an application, from a constituent part of the UK, to join the EU is absolute rubbish.  Typical froth from Bute House.  Sturgeon and her minority devolved government should do what they were elected to do - manage the devolved affairs of Scotland.  They have done a very poor job of that so far - hence why they are now a minority government - but that is what they are there for.  Now is the time for Nicola to shut-up and do her job.

She also knows that the EU will have its hands full in the coming time, trying to make sure that the departure of the UK is achieved in a manner that is mutually acceptable and, perhaps much or most of their focus will be on making sure that no other member country dares to let their population make a choice.  Can't let the democratic will of the people get in the way of the EU project!  

Does anyone seriously think that Spain would let the EU consider, for even a single nano-second, allowing a constituent part of a member country to negotiate its own terms of membership of the EU, while it is still part of its home country?

So we in the UK chose to leave the European Union.  The leaders of the other members states now need to realise that we will also choose, when we leave.  We will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (never voted for by the British people, by the way), when we choose to do so.  We will act in the interests of the British people (all of them, Nicola).  That may not sound very communitaire but there you are.  We chose to regain our long-held freedoms and we will choose the timing for when we get these back.

Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission can huff and puff all he wants.  One of the first things he needs to learn, post June 23, 2016, is that we chose to no longer pay any heed to his demands.  We will choose, we will not be ordered to do anything by an unelected foreigner.  We had the choice and we chose, freedom from such tyranny.  Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Co. please take note.

David Cameron was elected as a member of the mother of parliaments and the Conservative Party chose him to lead it and therefore to be our  Prime Minister.  His first act, after the June 23 result, was to decide that on behalf of the people of the UK, he chose to delay invoking Article 50, until after his successor has been elected, because he believes that this is the best course of action he can choose for our country.

Some of my fellow-countrymen and women are now complaining about the result of the referendum. They say that younger people voted predominately for Remain while older people voted in similar numbers for Leave.  The argument seems to be that somehow the votes of these younger people should count for me because they will have to live with the consequences longer.  The latter point is true.  Though since they will enjoy the benefits of our regained freedom, I don't really see their point. Anyway a decision was requested and an answer was given.  As a nation (listening Nicola??) we chose to Leave. That's it.  No need for further referendums - I know that this is how the EU has solved its inconvenient referendum results, in the past but we are British and we understand democracy.  We have been at it longer than any other nation and so perhaps that's why we know how it works.

To all those that chose to Leave and to put their well-founded faith in the British people, I say a heart-felt thanks.   We have chosen freedom and our path will now diverge from our European friends.  We wish them bonne chance and gutes reise but we are off somewhere else.

Monday, June 20, 2016

It's about being positive and taking control

Regular readers will not be surprised that I am voting to Leave the European Union in Thursday's referendum, however I wanted to share why and maybe persuade any waverers and undecided.

I am afraid I must start off in a negative frame of mind.  I have to look at the Remain Project Fear and ask everyone to consider if they have ever heard anything that is more negative and consistently so.  Threats for extra taxes, swingeing public expenditure cuts, slashed pensions, isolation, economic recession, World War 3, plagues of boils, etc., etc.

OK, I made up the plagues of boils but you get the picture.  Doom and gloom will descend on Friday, if the British people dare to Brexit.

What the Remain camp don't say though is what the future will look like if Britain does the wrong thing and votes to Remain.  What will a future Britain look like, locked within the ever failing European Union? I don't know.  It seems though that neither do the Remainers.  They cannot tell you and throughout this campaign have not even tried to.

Many Remainers seem to think that voting Remain means voting for the status quo - it doesn't.

Voting Remain means a green light for the ever closer union that David Cameron thinks he has an opt-out, from.  Make no mistake, a vote to Remain means that Cameron will have shot his bolt.  When he next meets his 27 counter-parts they will know he can do nothing if they renege on the feeble deal he brought back to the UK.  They know they can pass any deal to bail-out the Euro-crippled countries like Greece (and soon Italy and Spain) and require the prosperous UK to stump-up the money and there is nothing, nada, null, zero that Cameron can do, other than pay-up.  They know that Cameron simply could not do anything.  He couldn't go back to the people of Britain.  He couldn't with tears in his eyes and a tremulous voice, say ' but they cheated, they are not honouring the agreement'.  He will be what he is today - a dead man walking.  He will have no credibility in Brussels nor in Westminster.

Worried about Turkey gaining entry? Tough! If they want in, there is nothing that can be done about it.  Don't believe me?  Look how Turkey have been given billions of Euros and visa-less travel just by threatening to allow the flood of refugees to continue.  They can do this, again and again and Britain will be told to toe the line and pay up. That's the EU way.

But enough negativity.

The Leave campaign have been pushing a positive policy.

  • One that is based on faith in the ability of Britain's people 
  • One that sees Britain in a global marketplace and not tied into a protectionist customs union 
  • One that says the nation that gave democracy to the world is best placed to continue this more than 1,000 year long tradition, if its people are in control of Britain rather than unelected Eurocrats
  • One that sees its security continues to be best served by alliances with nations both in and outside the European Union
  • One that looks out into the world and sees huge global markets in China and India
  • One that recognizes that self-interest will mean that the EU will agree a positive trade deal with the UK, when we Leave.
  • One that helps David Cameron fulfill his manifesto pledge by getting net immigration down to the tens of thousands
  • One that opens its doors, as it has always done so, to people who can contribute to the needs of the UK
  • One that sees a nation can only call itself that if it controls its own borders
  • One that recognizes a sovereign nation cannot allow its military to be subsumed into a trans-national defence force and maybe dragged into conflicts against its national interest
  • One that, at its core, trusts the people of the UK

On Thursday, if you are currently undecided, you have to make a clear choice - Vote  for the positive Leave position or vote for the doom and gloom fear camp and Remain.  Remember, the leap into the dark is to Vote Remain, Vote Leave is a leap into a brighter, freer future where we, the people, are in control.

Be positive, take control and Vote Leave.

Thursday, June 2, 2016

After the referendum?

This post is mainly addressed to elected MPs of the Conservative persuasion.

Whatever the outcome of the EU Referendum, I really think that David Cameron is peddling pure fantasy if he thinks that things can go back to 'normal'.

The party line is that after the vote, Conservatives will come together , sing a couple of verses of Kumbaya and return to governing the country.  That those people who have been peddling lies, half-truths and highly selective use of statistics will gather around the Cabinet room table, with their colleagues from the Brexit camp, and just 'get along'.

Further that the 150+ Conservative MPs, who support Brexit will become quiescent and follow the Tory party whip.  That these MPs will ignore the distrust that Cameron and Osborne have sewn with their attempts to fix the outcome of the EU referendum.

As said above, I think this is pure fantasy and I think that David Cameron and George Osborne know this.

I posit that Cameron and Osborne are actually planning an exit strategy that has them, and 'their' Remain MPs joining with those Labour Remainers, that are disaffected with the ineffectual and frankly disastrous  Jeremy Corbyn leadership, and forming a new political organisation.

Some will say it is unlikely that Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham would be prepared to break bread with Cameron and Osborne.  I am not one of them.  Consider, Labour has made lots of noise about 'austerity' and what they call swingeing cuts but they know the reality is that Osborne continues to spend and borrow like the 'reddest' of Labour Chancellors.  Austerity has been a stick to beat each other with but this has been a feebly deployed weapon by both sides.  Don't believe me?  Then explain how the Tories have been 'savagely cutting public expenditure' for the last 6 years and yet the National Debt has more than doubled to £1.6 Trillion.

This all may sound far-fetched but the Tories have a small majority, 12 , I believe and if Cameron cannot govern with an 'unruly' bunch of Brexiteers, then maybe he and Osborne would consider it best to break things up.  Of course it would be dressed-up as them 'not leaving the Conservative Party but the Conservative Party having left them' but the result would be a split.

And frankly,  I can see this happening, whatever the outcome of the vote.

That is, if (hopefully, when) a vote for Brexit is achieved, they and the Remainers would seek to frustrate the negotiations surrounding the Brexit so as to, in some perverted way, bring about the fulfillment of some of their wild referendum campaign claims and to seek a new referendum, where the environment/argument would then be 'we told you so'.

If, heaven forbid, there is a vote to 'remain' then Cameron can expect a leadership challenge and clearly Osborne's chance of succeeding him have evaporated so, why wouldn't they want to get ahead of the field and leave?  For the Labour 'deserters' they will point to the next-to-non-existent referendum campaigning  from Corbyn and his less than whole-hearted support for a clear Labour policy.  They might even call it a National Coalition Party and a coming together to 'heal the wounds and deep divisions that the referendum has created', etc..  With the huge amounts of money that the government spends on 'Special Advisers' (SPADs) you can expect these to come up with all sorts of rational-sounding reasons why it is the 'extremist right wing' of the Conservatives and other 'swivel-eyed loonies' that are at fault and so on.  These people will be called racists, 'little Englanders' etc..

So my advice to the Brexiteers is to get your retaliation in, first.  Disturb the 'peace' of the Conservative Party by initiating a vote of confidence  and a leadership challenge, now - don't wait for the outcome of the referendum.  Distract Cameron and Osborne from their lie-peddling and give them a new focus - their own survival.  Throw them off-balance and change the battleground.

In my view, the future of the Conservative Party, and indeed, Conservative policies, is at stake and the time for a pre-emptive challenge is now.

From Osborne, we have repeatedly seen how when someone pushes back, he folds - look at his tax credit policy, as a prime example.  Same really applies to Cameron - child refugees, anyone?.  Use these weaknesses and, in the process, save Britain.  Cameron and Osborne have adopted the bully boy tactics favoured by the Eurocrats and anti-democrats in Brussels but like all bullies they only attack those who do not defend themselves.  Like all liars and half-truth peddlers, they change the subject when faced with facts or the demand for evidence of their claims.

If Remain wins, it will only be because Cameron has repeatedly lied and stacked the deck against Brexit and has gotten into bed with Socialists and terrorist sympathisers and has called in favours from around the world from members of the 'Elite Club' who see democracy as something to be overcome and cheated against, rather than complied with

Business as usual , after June 23rd?  I don't think so.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Cameron's dodgy dossier

Fed-up with all of the contradictory forecasts and statements about the referendum on Britain's continued membership of the European Union?  You probably should look away.

I would like to see another forecast - I know, that suggests either some kind of a weird fantasy obsession or that maybe I am just sad but let me explain.

The UK Treasury have been burning the midnight oil and going into 'spreadsheet frenzy' to produce forecast after forecast that shows how much the UK economy would suffer if the UK electorate had the nerve/courage to vote for Brexit.  So I am not alone in wanting forecasts!  Maybe not even sad.

The latest forecasts suggests a 12% decline in the value of Sterling, an increase in unemployment of up to 820,000, house price declines of 10-18% and a deep recession as a result of the shock to the economy, from a Brexit.

Now, these Treasury economists are supposed to be smart and I suppose that the reason that they are getting the same 'results' as other forecasting bodies is because they are all using the same economic model.   So rather than being independent verification, as is being touted, we instead have a reiteration of the same result because the 'domesday' data input and the model used is largely the same.  The surprise would be if they came out with a different result.

I would like to see a forecast that looks at the impact of a Brexit, not on the UK economy but rather on the economy of the remaining EU countries.

The doomsayers include in their forecasts projections that immediately a Brexit vote is achieved the four horsemen of the apocalypse will descend.  We will have Pestilence, Famine, Death and of course War.  Additionally, overnight or close to it, the strongest growing economy in the EU will dive into recession.


What about the effect on Germany?  Or on France or the Netherlands?

In 2015, the Germans exported US $100 billion of their excellent cars and other goods and services to the UK.  They then imported just US $46.5 billion from the UK and so enjoyed a surplus of US$ 53.5 billion.

In the same year, France exported US$41.5 billion and imported $27 billion, so having a US$ 14.5 billion trade surplus.  The position for the Netherlands was exports to the UK of US$50.7 billion and imports of $34.2 billion, so a trade surplus of $34.2 billion.  I am not sure if that Netherlands import figure includes items that are 'imported' as part of a trans-shipment process through the Rotterdam super-port but you get the drift.

Now - still with me?- If the Sterling exchange rate did fall by 12% (why not 10% or 15%?) then this would make UK exports cheaper and if proper WTO duty rates, of around 4%,  were used, rather than the extremely high rates used in the Treasury model, then the falling exchange rate would completely eliminate the effect of any duties and would still provide an export boost.

Problem is though, that this 12% fall is one-sided.  It supposes that the other global economies would be okay and stable and only the UK would suffer from a Brexit.  Consider though the effect of the UK retaliating against Germany, France and the Netherlands, if they and the rest of the EU imposed  onerous customs duties on the UK.  If the UK did exactly the same and applied the same rates of customs duties, the economies of these countries would undoubtedly suffer and this would ripple on and impact the Euro exchange rate.   So maybe that 12% decline in Sterling's value is incorrect.

Let's suppose that the USA also followed the EU lead and imposed similar level duties.  Then the US economy and the US $ exchange rate would also suffer as they have a small trade surplus with the UK. Albeit not too much but the impact would not be benign.

We all know D'Israeli's saying about 'lies, damn lies and statistics' however, what we are being presented with are one-sided forecasts that simply serve the UK government's position.  In none of these 'forecasts' do we hear the impact of Britain's reduced contribution to the EU.  This is variously estimated at £55 million per day! Again, this would positively impact Britain and negatively impact the EU.  Those particular coins, unsurprisingly have two sides.  Nor is any of the positive effect of reducing the mountains of 'red tape' that strangle UK and EU business, shown.

Also consider that a fall in house prices would be a boon for all those young people trying to get on the housing ladder.  Yes it would negatively impact those people who speculate in the housing market - foreign flight capital, members of Parliament, etc., but overall, the effect would be positive.

In the past, UK Prime Minister, David Cameron spoke of presenting the case around the referendum to the British people and letting them decide.  Instead of doing this, he and his Chancellor, George Osborne are becoming ever more outrageous in the claims and use of data.  Indeed, they are starting to make Tony Blair's 'dodgy dossier' look like a respectable, sober and credible document!

George Osborne, speaking when he established the Office of Budget Responsibility, said that the need for this organisation, independent of the the government, was because in the past, HM Treasury forecasts were found to be biased and dubious because of the political interference.  So when we see the drivel now emanating from Osborne's Treasury we know that we need to filter any forecasts through the prism of number manipulation so as to achieve a pre-determined outcome.  In other words, don't trust or set any store by what they say - they say what their master - George Osborne - wants them to say.

To close, another forecast.

David Cameron has said today, that the cost of Brexit could add £230 to the cost of a holiday in Europe, for a family of 4.  Of this is a 'could' rather than a 'would' and of course this figure is 'supported' by the usual dodgy statistics and calculations from the widely discredited forecasts publishers.  However, let's say that this time, the number is right, does £57.50 a head sound a high price to pay for the restoration of Britain's long-held democratic traditions?  Britain has paid a far, far higher price to defend its democracy, in the past.  A price in blood and lives, not in £ sterling.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the unelected 'President' of the European Commission, who hails from Luxembourg, has threatened the UK by saying that 'deserters' can expect no assistance from the EU.   Well Mr Juncker, I suggest that you hit the history books.  Go back to the history of the second World War.  In 1940, after the fall of EU members France, Belgium and Netherlands, at the hands of the Nazi hordes, Britain, aided by its colonies and Commonwealth allies, stood alone against the Nazis.  Britain didn't desert Europe's people in 1940 and we won't desert them now or in the future.  Brexit will provide a liberating example for those Europeans now trapped within an anti-democratic EU.  Brexit will allow those countries that suffered under post-war Soviet domination, to experience true freedom and democracy, when the inevitable collapse of the EU occurs.

£57.50 a head for freedom - bargain of the century - where do I send my money?

Vote Brexit, shake off the yoke of anti-democracy which is weighing us down and restore Britain's freedom

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

The Referendum contradiction

What do you make of all the scare-mongering, AKA Project Fear,  that is coming out of the Remain camp, relating to the European Referendum?

I ask because there seems to be something of a contradiction in the whole thing.

On the one hand, we have David Cameron and his government fulfilling a manifesto commitment and organising a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU, following a 'renegotiation' of the terms of membership with other EU members.

On the other hand, David Cameron and his acolytes in the Cabinet and the Remain camp, including some members of the security services and some members of the military, are telling us that if the UK does indeed Brexit, then we will experience:

  • Economic dislocation and a contraction in the UK economy
  • Immediately depreciating value for the Pound Sterling.  
  • The shock effect could lead to serious conflict in Europe - war and such - indeed some have mentioned Brexit being a potential cause for World War 3 starting.  
  • The UK would also become immediately more vulnerable to a terrorist attack as the European partners, with which we currently share intelligence, would cut-off cooperation. 

The economic consequences have been batted back and forth and the outcome depends upon the individual's overall view on Brexit.  However, surely a depreciation in Sterling would be expected to make the UK's exports cheaper and so would be a boost for the UK economy.

In terms of the intelligence sharing.  The most effective and important partnership that the UK participates in, is the Five Eyes programme.  This intelligence sharing agreement is between, Australia, Canada, New Zealand , USA and the UK.  You will note the lack of any other EU member.  You will understand that this mutually beneficial cooperation programme will continue whatever the outcome of the EU referendum.  Indeed, you will have heard from Cameron and Co. how the UK's GCHQ intelligence centre is one of, or maybe is the foremost of such centres, in the world.  Indeed, possibly equal to or only just surpassed by the USA's capabilities. A former head of the CIA essentially discounted other European intelligence service capabilities and posited that the EU sometimes get in the way of intelligence gathering and sharing.

In terms of war and peace in Europe (including in the EU countries),  it is NATO that has ensured the peace, for the last 67 years.  Certainly not the EU.  I have posted  on this earlier blog regarding the EU's contribution to the situation in Ukraine.  If this is what EU membership saving us from war is about, then the UK is better-off out rather than running the risk of getting pulled into a European conflict because of the  EU's naive and dangerous meddling.

But back to the contradiction.

If we, for just a single moment, accept the clap-trap that is spewing forth from Cameron and the Remainians, then why on earth is Cameron holding this referendum?  If the risks are so great - don't know about you but WW3 and Armageddon are up there for me - why hasn't the vote been canceled? Indeed, why were none of these arguments put forward by Cameron and Co., before legislation on the EU referendum was put before Parliament?  Or at the very least during those debates on this?.

Call me cynical but I suspect that these 'fears and risks' don't actually exist.  They are just being dreamt-up now.  There will no doubt be more in the days and weeks to come.  I ask you to apply the contradiction test to them.  If Brexit is so dangerous, why are we having the vote?

I suppose we should at least be grateful that the Remainiacs haven't (yet) invoked biblical plagues being inflicted on the UK.  Fire, pestilence, bugs, boils, etc.  There's still time though.

As before, the solution is - Vote Brexit!

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

EU and Elephants

Don't worry, this isn't about circuses or zoos.  Though, before I move on, and given just as something that 'tickled' me. I came across a lovely Polish saying, on Twitter.  Not my circus, not my monkeys - so not my problem.

Anyway, back to the European Union and Elephants.  Or rather, the Brexit vote and Immigration.

There. I said it.  I used the immigration word.  Naughty me!

Immigration though is a key, maybe the key factor affecting Britain's relationship with the EU.   Ronald Reagan is famously quoted as saying 'a nation that cannot control its borders is not a nation'. Within the European Union, that is the position in which the UK finds itself.

I have posted on this blog before about all of the fallacious and specious economic arguments put forward by those that want Britain to remain in the EU.  Simply put, they are wrong, they are based on unfounded fears that the EU will, as a result of a vote to Brexit, punish its largest single export market. Isn't going to happen, so let's move on.  

We can also discount the somewhat deranged comments from David Cameron, who seeks to suggest that a vote for Brexit could lead to World War 3.  Suppose for just a second that this was true.  Why then would he risk such a situation by holding a referendum that might produce a Brexit vote?   Oh I know he only offered the vote to scupper UKIP but still, if he actually believes what he said, then it is madness to continue with a vote.  Truth is, just as Cameron said earlier, as recently as February 2016, the UK can survive outside of the EU.

So let's look at immigration.

The numbers of people that are immigrating to the UK, from within the EU seem to be incredibly difficult to obtain.  Then when they are published they don't add up - more on that in a moment.  

According to the most recent numbers of immigrants, in the year to September 2015, the numbers were

55,000 from the EU 2 - Bulgaria and Romania, up from just 5,000 in 2007.

69,000 from the EU 8 - Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. This is up from 53,000 in 2004.

130,000 from the rest of the EU countries , up from 53,000 in 1991.

These total to 257,000 when rounding is taken account of.

One issue with these numbers, is that the number of new National Insurance (Social Security) numbers that were issued in the same period was 630,000.  The UK government has so far failed to explain who received the 'missing' National Insurance numbers.

We need to consider, why these people are coming to the UK.  I doubt it is the weather.

The strong suspicion is that people are coming to the UK because of the strength of the UK economy and the economic benefits that are available.  Add to this the disparity in the UK minimum wage and that prevailing in the 'sending' countries as well as 'in work benefits' and we have a cocktail mix that guarantees the attractiveness of the UK as an immigration destination and, most importantly, one that will continue.  

But I am getting ahead of myself.

Based on recent data, from 2015, the minimum monthly wage in the UK is Euro €1,378.

In countries that are suffering IMF/EU and World Bank restrictions, countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal, the rates are €684, €757 and €589 respectively.

In Bulgaria and Romania the rates are €194 and €235 respectively.

In the so called EU 8, Czech Republic €335,, Estonia €390, Hungary €345, Latvia €360, Lithuania ¢325, Poland €410, Slovakia €380 and Slovenia €791

The minimum wage in the UK acts as a magnet for economic migrants from EU countries.  For some of these people, they can come to the UK, take-up a low-paid job and be far, far better-off than they would be in their home country.

Then add to this 'in work benefits'.  These are things like Working Tax Credits.  This is an invention of the fiscally incontinent former Chancellor, Gordon Brown.  These effectively subsidise companies by providing workers with taxpayer-funded handouts which supplement the low wage they are receiving.   For those migrants from low minimum wage countries, this just makes the UK look like a better and better choice.   Add in child benefit - another taxpayer-funded handout and a migrant would be crazy to go anywhere else.

Note I am clear, in my mind and media comment supports this, that migrants do not typically come to the UK to be 'benefits scroungers' who will 'sponge' off of the welfare state.  Rather they come to the UK to work.  Many of them end-up doing the work that work-shy, benefit dependent simply won't do.
David Cameron's much vaunted 'victory' at the EU summit, on the UK having the ability to apply some kind of 'emergency brake' on benefits to EU immigrants is essentially worthless.  These people do not come here for the benefits, they come here for jobs.

The problem for the UK though is more about available resources.

The NHS is straining under its current load.  In reality, it cannot cope, today.  On any reasonable metric, the NHS is failing.  It isn't even a question of money - the NHS gets flooded with taxpayer money.  The problem is human and infrastructure resources.  Not enough doctors, nurses and hospitals. The requirement for these resources cannot keep up with ever increasing demand.  The existing population is living longer and that is a challenge so you can imagine what kind of a burden an extra 257,000 people  places on the system.

The problems facing the NHS are replicated in schooling and housing.  It has been estimated that more than 50% of all new homes that are being built (and there's nowhere near enough of them, for 'locals') will be needed for immigrants.  It has been estimated that a new house would need to be built, every 6 minutes, just to keep pace with the housing of EU migrants.  That's 240 a day, every day.
Classroom sizes in certain areas are approaching 3rd World levels.  Oh and not all of the children , or their parents, speak English, which places a further burden on an already over-loaded system.

So immigration on this scale is simply not sustainable.  London is said to have an immigrant population of greater than 50% and there are parts elsewhere in the UK, where the indigenous population are feeling swamped.

Oh, and on top of the 257,000 people from the EU, there was a further 273,000 immigrants from outside the EU.

And then, just around the corner is Turkey.  Germany, suffering under Merkel's madness has agreed to 'energise' the ascension of Turkey, with its 79 million population, into the EU.  Consider that Turkey has a monthly minimum wage of €425.  How many of them might want to upscale their earning capacity and move to the UK?  Turkey being a predominantly Muslim nation then layers religious and cultural differences on top of the immigration problem.

The only realistic solution for the UK is for the country to take control of its borders and to restrict the number of people that can come to the UK.  In reality this would mean very dramatically reduce the number coming in.  It would mean ending working tax credits for immigrants and child benefit, unless the child accompanied the immigrant - many currently don't but stay in their home country.

Saying the above, it is therefore crystal clear that the UK must vote leave - Brexit - on June 23rd.  Not doing so, will simply lead to further and ever increasing deterioration in public services as well as a sense of alienation and non-belonging for the native population.

So, consider, then do your duty and vote Brexit.