Cameron leaves Brussels 'empty-handed'

Dateline:  Brussels 02.40 am February 20, 2016

David Cameron has left the Brussels EU summit, empty-handed.  His attempts to reach agreement, with other EU leaders, on what many have described as a seriously weak deal, have failed.

The  main stumbling blocks were the attempt to limit benefits for migrants and the British exclusion from so called ever closer union.

The Eastern European countries of Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Czech Republic formed a bloc to oppose the imposition of the so called Emergency Brake.  While the opposition was not unexpected, that the countries stuck to their position was.  These countries could have easily given in on this because any application of the ‘brake’ would require their subsequent approval and so, just as the so called Brexit people claim, these countries could have applied their opposition at some point in the future. 

They chose not to do so and there is speculation that this was because Germany has been talking of ‘punishment’ for these countries because of their refusal to take in more and more migrants/refugees. Chancellor Angela Merkel is in a bind – she can’t go back on her ‘the party’s at mine’ post on FaceBook, which opened Germany’s doors to a flood of refugees – and after the escalating evidence of sexual violence being committed by the, mostly male, refugees, she is facing a growing backlash, at home and so needs to ‘spread the load’.  Trouble is, most other European countries are putting up barriers to taking in more refugees.  Merkel’s big hope is that Greece fails to meet the recently issued edict on border controls and so Schengen gets suspended, which is a useful stop-gap for Merkel.

So, Merkel’s bluff has been called by the East Europeans and Cameron’s ‘big consensus negotiating success’ evaporated.

Merkel also wasn’t even able to keep France ‘onside’.  President Hollande couldn’t really conceal his anger at the number of French people who have migrated to London and the South East, since his election.  These folks mainly work in the City and the special privileges that he believes will accrue to the City, by the UK avoiding ever closer integration provide a stark contrast between a growing and successful Finance sector, in London, and an increasingly irrelevant French finance market.  

To be fair, Hollande also has to pay attention to the Front National.  Marine Le Pen has made the FN electable and threatens to be a serious contender in the next Presidential election.  The FN is much less enamoured with the EU than either Hollande’s socialists or Sakozy’s Republicans and so he needs to keep a foot, or at least a toe, in the anti-EU camp>  Also, it never does any French politician any harm to have a poke at les Rosbifs. 

So, what now for David Cameron?

The deal was always a weak one and many in his own party were against it.   This failure leaves him severely weakened.   He has staked much on his personal diplomacy and has twisted the arms of his Cabinet colleagues to get behind his deal.  Now he has failed on this, his ‘colleagues’ will be expected to run for cover.

Indeed, it has been suggested, that in order to remain in power, Cameron may just proceed with a June referendum and campaign for a ‘Leave’ result so that his hand is strengthened and he can go back to the EU and now say ‘either you give us this or we will leave’. 

Of course, the above is fiction or maybe, more accurately ‘wishful thinking’. 

Chances are though, Cameron will return and, like Neville Chamberlain before him, will have a 21^st century equivalent to ‘the peace in our time’, piece of paper, which he will then try to sell to the British. 

How though will Tory ministers react? 

George Osborne is said to be the most political of Chancellors.  He probably considers the political implications of what tie or underwear he wears, before leaving the house, each day.  So  will he dare to be bold?  He is the heir-apparent to Cameron, will he make the judgement that now is the time for him to step out of Cameron’s shadow and be his ‘own man’?  Will he judge that the surest way to kill off UKIP is to take the EU away from them and that an EU-less UKIP will not be anywhere near as potent a force?  We can but hope. 

No doubt he will weigh the risk of backing the ‘Stay’ camp but must be concerned at the continuing refugee/migrant crisis and its impact on Conservative fortunes.  He won’t want to be ‘tarred’ with the accusation that by supporting ‘Stay’ he is jeopardising Britain’s economic future, by tying the UK to the floundering EU one, or that he has done a ‘Merkel’ and left Britain’s doors open to masses (can I say swarms) of migrants from the EU and from outside the EU.

We will see.  

Boris Johnson, Osborne’s main rival, remains sitting on the fence.  He needs to get off it and state his position.  No more being coy.

I struggle to say this but it needs to be said.  I hope that Cameron fails, over the next few days.  This might lead to the referendum being delayed but that’s okay.  The EU is a failed project.  This failure will become more apparent over time.  A later vote, maybe preceded by a further migration crisis, can only help  the Brexit side.

Remember, as I have said  here , Vote Leave even if you want to stay in.   Cameron’s deal is very, very weak.

Twitter's wrong response to trolls

Ever been ‘trolled’ on Twitter?  I guess I was last week. 

I replied to something that was retweeted to me and then boooom!  Within minutes my inbox started filling with messages from supporters of Donald Trump - my response, to a tweet about Trump’s economic competence, spoke to his experience with bankruptcies – kicked-off the process. 

The trolls themselves were not very imaginative.  One confidently stated that I obviously don’t earn more than $12 an hour and another that I have never held a senior position.  Those that know me, will be better aware of whether the work I have had in more than 20 countries, is senior or not.  For myself though, I find it illustrative that these Trump supporters think that only those in ‘senior’ employment and those on higher than minimum wage have views that are worthy of consideration.  I suppose that the whole attraction with Trump is his money.   It is his money that allows him the arrogance to push his shallow and ill-thought statements onto an increasingly polarised America and GOP.

It is this money and arrogance that gets him the media attention.  That, and in my view, the fact that the media see Trump as being the preferred GOP candidate.  My belief is that the MSM see Trump as being overwhelmingly unelectable among the general population.  He will turn-off conservatives and independents in great numbers.  The former because of his previous heavy support for Democrats, his close association with the Clintons and his flip-flopping support for all sorts of Democrat policies abortion and gun control.  The latter because his crass statements shame America.

But I digress.

AsI was being trolled, Twitter announced the formation of something called the Twitter Trust and Safety Council.  This seems to be something that has been set-up to protect people on Twitter, to stop ‘trolling’.

Apart from the Orwellian sounding name, this ‘safety council’ comprises a lot of organisations that seem to have associations with ‘Leftist’ and ultimately anti-free speech people.  It is well known that the Left invents all sorts of 'isms' to stifle debate.  Try to discuss immigration and you are accused of racism, try to criticise a female's politics and you are anti-feminism, etc., etc..  It is my view that this stifling of debate is actually fuelling the rise of extremism.

I don’t know about you but this 'safety council' seems to be completely against what Twitter was all about.  As said earlier, I was trolled and didn’t particularly enjoy the experience however, I didn’t need to resort to a ‘safety council’.  I used the tools that Twitter already provide.  I blocked the principal trolls!  Having done so, the trolling ceased.   The ‘block’ option worked entirely as intended.  No censorious ‘safety council’ was required.  No committee of ‘leftists’ were needed to review the matter and pass judgement.  I used common sense and made the decision, that I no longer wanted these trolls on my timeline, myself. 

Whatever the decision of the Twitter Trust and Safety Council would have been, I doubt I would have brought the matter before them.  They simply sound like a censor, the latest edition of the ‘thought police’. 

Business TV suggests that Twitter Inc is facing tough times.  The share price is being hammered and they had to bring back, Jack Dorsey, one of their founders, as CEO, to rescue the business.  It seems to me that the last thing Twitter should be doing is to introduce censorship, in any form.  Twitter needs to stay true to its principles of freedom – Twitter will be lost if it starts down the road of censorship.  It’s current differentiation comes from its openness – that is now in danger.

So Jack, if you read this, abandon this sinister Trust and Safety Council and keep Twitter true to its origins.  We’re grown-ups and can choose to Block or leave.  We can protect ourselves, trust us.