Negotiating Brexit - the basics

Firstly, some health advice.  Everyone just calm down.  We have had a referendum. We, as the people of the United Kingdom, made a choice and we will live with it.

Also, let's be very clear.  The United Kingdom is still a full and functioning member of the European Union.  We are still subject to all of the rules that membership imposes.  All those people who are accusing the Leave campaign of not fulfilling campaign promises need to understand that no substantive changes can occur while we remain a member of the EU.  Politicians and media commentators already know this and should think very carefully before they, for presumably personal gain, push and publish statements to the contrary.

And think back to last Friday.  Did the sun come up?  Did you go to work and do the same things that you did on Thursday and Wednesday? Was the price to fill-up you car or shopping trolley, the same as the previous time? Has the government suddenly declared we are on a war-footing?  Did Germany stop exporting cars to us and the French, wine?

Wasn't there an old WW2 poster about Keep Calm and Carry On ?

OK, so may as well address the elephant in the room, at the outset.

Nigel Farage should almost certainly take no public part in the negotiation with our (still current) EU partners.  None.  He is far too divisive and incapable of not gloating.

These negotiations are the responsibility of the UK government.  That government is formed by the Conservative Party and currently led by David Cameron.  Cameron has made it clear that he wants someone else to lead his party and the negotiations and so any team-forming must await the outcome of the Tory leadership campaign.  That might frustrate the likes of Jean-Claude Juncker but that's just tough.

I said, at the outset, that Farage should take no part.  Of course that is down to the new Conservative leader but I see no reason for Farage to be a member of the team.  The Conservative Party have a large number of very capable MPs who could participate and anyway, the bulk of the work needs to be carried out by the Civil Service, once they have been given their very clear, marching orders.   The latter point is critical, the Civil Service need to be told, in no uncertain terms that they are to broker a deal that is in the UK's interest and that matches the democratic decision of the people of the UK - a departure (Leave if you will) from all of the institutions of the European Union.

Fundamentally though, it is the Conservative Party that must shoulder the bulk of the work.  They may bring in and take advice from non-Conservative Party advisers but it is the role of the Conservative government to lead and get the job done.

As regular readers would expect, I have a few opinions on the whole process.  Here goes.

Assuming that he isn't chosen as the leader of the Conservative Party, I would propose David Davis, the MP for Haltemprice and Howden, as the leader of these negotiations.  Davis has been a long-time Euro-sceptic but is not so hide-bound that he cannot build bridges across the political spectrum - he was elevated in many people's opinion with his principled opposition to increased detention periods.  He also has a good 'back-story' and has repeatedly shown that he is 'no one's fool' and is not easily brow-beaten.  I would certainly trust him to represent Britain's interests but to do so in a British manner - not rubbing the EU's nose in it.

I believe that the negotiating team would benefit from cross-party participation - Kate Hoey and especially Gisela Stuart were very impressive during the campaign.  Jim Sellars from Scotland and Arlene Foster from Northern Ireland would also be great contributors.  As would Dan Hannan, who could bring his considerable inside knowledge to bear.  Douglas Carswell would also be a sound contributor as would be Suzanne Evans.

As you will note, all are Brexiteers.  It makes little to no sense to have people that passionately believed in Remain, sitting in the team and possibly thwarting the wishes and aims of the people of the UK.

The issues on which we need resolution are clear, and given the febrile atmosphere, now and here isn't the place. to discuss them.

That said, one thing needs to be made crystal clear.  EU migrants, that are now in the UK, should be immediately reassured that there residence is not in jeopardy.  They must be allowed the comfort of knowing we welcomed them before and welcome them now.  This is something that David Cameron can and must state, immediately.

More to follow but for now, let us all remain calm and a British sense of perspective.

We chose, we choose

This post is mainly aimed at the people of the UK and the leaders of EU countries.

Firstly though, I have to say wow, just wow!  A referendum result that has made me very, very happy.  Even more happier than the result of the Scottish Independence Referendum.  Of course there will be  some challenges ahead but we are British, we have overcome challenges before and will do so again.

David Cameron, before he resigned (quit?) said that we are not a nation of quitters and we aren't.  We stick with the right path rather than just taking the easy one.

Anyway...

The people of the UK chose to leave the European Union.  More than 33.5 million of us registered a vote and chose, by a margin of 52:48 to leave.  The majority chose to ignore the merchants of fear and chose to decouple us from the failed European Union project.  We never chose to sign-up to ever political union, we originally chose to join a Common Market but the corporatists and socialists of certain European countries want to become submerged in a political union.  That's their choice - though in typical EU fashion,  their people aren't being asked - but we have chosen a different course.  We wish them well.

Go back to the start of the last paragraph.  The people of the UK chose to leave the European Union.  This was a question put to the whole of the UK and a decision reached by the whole of the UK.  The talk of a second Scottish Independence Referendum, coming from Nicola Sturgeon is anti-democratic and is pure mischief making from her.  I really believe that if she was in a party of three or more enjoying a dinner out and one of the party said 'red or white wine'  and she was in the minority, she would immediately call for her democratic rights be respected and for a new Scottish Independence Referendum to be called.  Opportunist doesn't even come close.

Sturgeon is mischief making.  She knows full well that Foreign Affairs is not a devolved responsibility.  This is a power reserved to the Westminster parliament.  All this talk about asking Brussels to consider an application, from a constituent part of the UK, to join the EU is absolute rubbish.  Typical froth from Bute House.  Sturgeon and her minority devolved government should do what they were elected to do - manage the devolved affairs of Scotland.  They have done a very poor job of that so far - hence why they are now a minority government - but that is what they are there for.  Now is the time for Nicola to shut-up and do her job.

She also knows that the EU will have its hands full in the coming time, trying to make sure that the departure of the UK is achieved in a manner that is mutually acceptable and, perhaps much or most of their focus will be on making sure that no other member country dares to let their population make a choice.  Can't let the democratic will of the people get in the way of the EU project!  

Does anyone seriously think that Spain would let the EU consider, for even a single nano-second, allowing a constituent part of a member country to negotiate its own terms of membership of the EU, while it is still part of its home country?

So we in the UK chose to leave the European Union.  The leaders of the other members states now need to realise that we will also choose, when we leave.  We will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (never voted for by the British people, by the way), when we choose to do so.  We will act in the interests of the British people (all of them, Nicola).  That may not sound very communitaire but there you are.  We chose to regain our long-held freedoms and we will choose the timing for when we get these back.

Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission can huff and puff all he wants.  One of the first things he needs to learn, post June 23, 2016, is that we chose to no longer pay any heed to his demands.  We will choose, we will not be ordered to do anything by an unelected foreigner.  We had the choice and we chose, freedom from such tyranny.  Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Co. please take note.

David Cameron was elected as a member of the mother of parliaments and the Conservative Party chose him to lead it and therefore to be our  Prime Minister.  His first act, after the June 23 result, was to decide that on behalf of the people of the UK, he chose to delay invoking Article 50, until after his successor has been elected, because he believes that this is the best course of action he can choose for our country.

Some of my fellow-countrymen and women are now complaining about the result of the referendum. They say that younger people voted predominately for Remain while older people voted in similar numbers for Leave.  The argument seems to be that somehow the votes of these younger people should count for me because they will have to live with the consequences longer.  The latter point is true.  Though since they will enjoy the benefits of our regained freedom, I don't really see their point. Anyway a decision was requested and an answer was given.  As a nation (listening Nicola??) we chose to Leave. That's it.  No need for further referendums - I know that this is how the EU has solved its inconvenient referendum results, in the past but we are British and we understand democracy.  We have been at it longer than any other nation and so perhaps that's why we know how it works.

To all those that chose to Leave and to put their well-founded faith in the British people, I say a heart-felt thanks.   We have chosen freedom and our path will now diverge from our European friends.  We wish them bonne chance and gutes reise but we are off somewhere else.

It's about being positive and taking control

Regular readers will not be surprised that I am voting to Leave the European Union in Thursday's referendum, however I wanted to share why and maybe persuade any waverers and undecided.

I am afraid I must start off in a negative frame of mind.  I have to look at the Remain Project Fear and ask everyone to consider if they have ever heard anything that is more negative and consistently so.  Threats for extra taxes, swingeing public expenditure cuts, slashed pensions, isolation, economic recession, World War 3, plagues of boils, etc., etc.

OK, I made up the plagues of boils but you get the picture.  Doom and gloom will descend on Friday, if the British people dare to Brexit.

What the Remain camp don't say though is what the future will look like if Britain does the wrong thing and votes to Remain.  What will a future Britain look like, locked within the ever failing European Union? I don't know.  It seems though that neither do the Remainers.  They cannot tell you and throughout this campaign have not even tried to.

Many Remainers seem to think that voting Remain means voting for the status quo - it doesn't.

Voting Remain means a green light for the ever closer union that David Cameron thinks he has an opt-out, from.  Make no mistake, a vote to Remain means that Cameron will have shot his bolt.  When he next meets his 27 counter-parts they will know he can do nothing if they renege on the feeble deal he brought back to the UK.  They know they can pass any deal to bail-out the Euro-crippled countries like Greece (and soon Italy and Spain) and require the prosperous UK to stump-up the money and there is nothing, nada, null, zero that Cameron can do, other than pay-up.  They know that Cameron simply could not do anything.  He couldn't go back to the people of Britain.  He couldn't with tears in his eyes and a tremulous voice, say ' but they cheated, they are not honouring the agreement'.  He will be what he is today - a dead man walking.  He will have no credibility in Brussels nor in Westminster.

Worried about Turkey gaining entry? Tough! If they want in, there is nothing that can be done about it.  Don't believe me?  Look how Turkey have been given billions of Euros and visa-less travel just by threatening to allow the flood of refugees to continue.  They can do this, again and again and Britain will be told to toe the line and pay up. That's the EU way.

But enough negativity.

The Leave campaign have been pushing a positive policy.

• One that is based on faith in the ability of Britain's people 
• One that sees Britain in a global marketplace and not tied into a protectionist customs union 
• One that says the nation that gave democracy to the world is best placed to continue this more than 1,000 year long tradition, if its people are in control of Britain rather than unelected Eurocrats
• One that sees its security continues to be best served by alliances with nations both in and outside the European Union
• One that looks out into the world and sees huge global markets in China and India
• One that recognizes that self-interest will mean that the EU will agree a positive trade deal with the UK, when we Leave.
• One that helps David Cameron fulfill his manifesto pledge by getting net immigration down to the tens of thousands
• One that opens its doors, as it has always done so, to people who can contribute to the needs of the UK
• One that sees a nation can only call itself that if it controls its own borders
• One that recognizes a sovereign nation cannot allow its military to be subsumed into a trans-national defence force and maybe dragged into conflicts against its national interest
• One that, at its core, trusts the people of the UK

On Thursday, if you are currently undecided, you have to make a clear choice - Vote  for the positive Leave position or vote for the doom and gloom fear camp and Remain.  Remember, the leap into the dark is to Vote Remain, Vote Leave is a leap into a brighter, freer future where we, the people, are in control.

Be positive, take control and Vote Leave.

After the referendum?

This post is mainly addressed to elected MPs of the Conservative persuasion.

Whatever the outcome of the EU Referendum, I really think that David Cameron is peddling pure fantasy if he thinks that things can go back to 'normal'.

The party line is that after the vote, Conservatives will come together , sing a couple of verses of Kumbaya and return to governing the country.  That those people who have been peddling lies, half-truths and highly selective use of statistics will gather around the Cabinet room table, with their colleagues from the Brexit camp, and just 'get along'.

Further that the 150+ Conservative MPs, who support Brexit will become quiescent and follow the Tory party whip.  That these MPs will ignore the distrust that Cameron and Osborne have sewn with their attempts to fix the outcome of the EU referendum.

As said above, I think this is pure fantasy and I think that David Cameron and George Osborne know this.

I posit that Cameron and Osborne are actually planning an exit strategy that has them, and 'their' Remain MPs joining with those Labour Remainers, that are disaffected with the ineffectual and frankly disastrous  Jeremy Corbyn leadership, and forming a new political organisation.

Some will say it is unlikely that Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham would be prepared to break bread with Cameron and Osborne.  I am not one of them.  Consider, Labour has made lots of noise about 'austerity' and what they call swingeing cuts but they know the reality is that Osborne continues to spend and borrow like the 'reddest' of Labour Chancellors.  Austerity has been a stick to beat each other with but this has been a feebly deployed weapon by both sides.  Don't believe me?  Then explain how the Tories have been 'savagely cutting public expenditure' for the last 6 years and yet the National Debt has more than doubled to £1.6 Trillion.

This all may sound far-fetched but the Tories have a small majority, 12 , I believe and if Cameron cannot govern with an 'unruly' bunch of Brexiteers, then maybe he and Osborne would consider it best to break things up.  Of course it would be dressed-up as them 'not leaving the Conservative Party but the Conservative Party having left them' but the result would be a split.

And frankly,  I can see this happening, whatever the outcome of the vote.

That is, if (hopefully, when) a vote for Brexit is achieved, they and the Remainers would seek to frustrate the negotiations surrounding the Brexit so as to, in some perverted way, bring about the fulfillment of some of their wild referendum campaign claims and to seek a new referendum, where the environment/argument would then be 'we told you so'.

If, heaven forbid, there is a vote to 'remain' then Cameron can expect a leadership challenge and clearly Osborne's chance of succeeding him have evaporated so, why wouldn't they want to get ahead of the field and leave?  For the Labour 'deserters' they will point to the next-to-non-existent referendum campaigning  from Corbyn and his less than whole-hearted support for a clear Labour policy.  They might even call it a National Coalition Party and a coming together to 'heal the wounds and deep divisions that the referendum has created', etc..  With the huge amounts of money that the government spends on 'Special Advisers' (SPADs) you can expect these to come up with all sorts of rational-sounding reasons why it is the 'extremist right wing' of the Conservatives and other 'swivel-eyed loonies' that are at fault and so on.  These people will be called racists, 'little Englanders' etc..

So my advice to the Brexiteers is to get your retaliation in, first.  Disturb the 'peace' of the Conservative Party by initiating a vote of confidence  and a leadership challenge, now - don't wait for the outcome of the referendum.  Distract Cameron and Osborne from their lie-peddling and give them a new focus - their own survival.  Throw them off-balance and change the battleground.

In my view, the future of the Conservative Party, and indeed, Conservative policies, is at stake and the time for a pre-emptive challenge is now.

From Osborne, we have repeatedly seen how when someone pushes back, he folds - look at his tax credit policy, as a prime example.  Same really applies to Cameron - child refugees, anyone?.  Use these weaknesses and, in the process, save Britain.  Cameron and Osborne have adopted the bully boy tactics favoured by the Eurocrats and anti-democrats in Brussels but like all bullies they only attack those who do not defend themselves.  Like all liars and half-truth peddlers, they change the subject when faced with facts or the demand for evidence of their claims.

If Remain wins, it will only be because Cameron has repeatedly lied and stacked the deck against Brexit and has gotten into bed with Socialists and terrorist sympathisers and has called in favours from around the world from members of the 'Elite Club' who see democracy as something to be overcome and cheated against, rather than complied with

Business as usual , after June 23rd?  I don't think so.