Labour's mess calls for early Brexit

 I feel quite conflicted about the omnishambles that is the British Labour Party.  Not sure if I like this, or not.

On the one hand, the mess in which they find themselves augurs well for the Conservative party.  It would seem that the Labourites are in danger of splitting between the Jeremy Corbyn and his allies in the ‘entryist’ Momentum movement, and the remainder of the party, including the overwhelming majority of the party in Parliament. 

As said, a split or further internecine fighting distracts them from performing the role of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition (though I suppose that Corbyn and the those MPs that do sit in the depleted Shadow Cabinet, do take the extra money that comes with the role).  This itself isn’t good – democracy needs an opposition that can actually oppose and challenge and we all lose out, when we don’t have one. So the ‘brothers’ fighting gives the Conservatives an easy ride to implement policies.  For me, and of course I believe the country, I think it is good that we can get Conservative policies implemented but would prefer that such policies are tested – in the parliamentary sense.

I suppose I can live with that risk, if I had to.  I sense that there is a kind of opposition within the Conservative Party, anyway and maybe they will do the job that Labour are too internally focused to do.

On the other hand, and this really worries me, what happens if new PM, Theresa May, drags her feet on Brexit?  Apart from angering ‘Leavers’ in parliament, this will surely harden opinion in the country, against any Remainers. 

For all those that go on about a second referendum and such, the assumption I believe is that having seen the result, many people who voted Leave will suddenly change and vote Remain.  I know it is moot – we are not having another referendum – but my sense is that Remainers will look at how so many people and organizations are ‘rowing back’ from the Project Fear threats, that they will feel that they were lied to and only voted Remain because of the fear generated and now they see the emptiness of those threats and would vote Leave, if they were given a second chance.

So supposing the PM does drag her feet or has a Brexit outcome that basically puts the country in the same position as it was before the referendum – not being in control of our destiny, having to accept free movement, and so on.  Then the ‘Leavers’ in Parliament might force an election and Theresa May would have to go to the country with a divided Conservative Party and a platform that doesn’t command acceptance with the party’s supporters, in the country.  We would no doubt see Conservative losses, perhaps enough to leave them lacking a parliamentary majority and then we could expect to see UKIP making significant gains in North of England seats, at the expense of a broken Labour Party . 

The upshot? No party with an overall majority and Parliament as divided as the referendum result suggests.  This is not, I would suggest, in our national interest.  One of the things that the Remainers didn’t lie about is that international markets and companies, require stability.  The ‘markets’ know that certainty is elusive but they do look for a platform of one sort or another, around which they can develop their investment strategies.   A divided parliament, as could arise, would be very destabilizing. And, bear in mind, this instability could endure for an extended period of time.  Can you really see Conservative Theresa May sitting down to discuss a coalition with UKIP or with the anti-Corbyn wing of the Labour Party?  Or UKIP sitting down with the Corbynistas or the Anti-Corbyn wing. 

Before Nicola and her stooges jump up and say what about the SNP.  Well at best, you represent less than 10% of the total number of MPs – so hardly meaningful.

I believe that the solution to head-off this catastrophic situation is for Theresa May to fire the starting gun on Brexit, in the very near future – no later than Janury 31, 2017 – she could even commit to the date, as early as the coming days. 

Yes I know that we then have to reach a deal within two years but it’s two years, for heavens sake.  Not two weeks or two months but two years!  And, critically, the duration could be extended, if required (and if approved by all 28 nations) and at the outset we know that in a worst case situation we could utilise World Trade Organization, trade terms if need be. These WTO terms don’t include free movement of people, which takes a lot of the wind out of the sails of the Brexiteer’s opposition.  All those who voted Leave would have their fears of betrayal, assuaged and the internal Conservative opposition would be ‘de-fanged’. 

This would do nothing to resolve Labour’s mess.  I am fast coming to the conclusion that only a split will give those who believe in democratic socialism (the majority of Labour voters) a home, going forward.  The effect of entryism in the Labour Party means that for so very many Labour Party supporters and voters, the only way forward is to breakaway and leave the social justice warriors and Corbynistas to their fate in the political netherworld rather than them dragging the party into the political oblivion that their adherence to the ‘purity of socialism’ will certainly cause.

So over to Theresa!  Save the party, save the country, save the pound and save the economy.

May's cabinet and In Tray

Prior to the coronation of Theresa May, as Britain’s new Prime Minister, I thought I would share a couple of comments and advice on her Cabinet appointments.

Firstly, we can ignore the clamour from Labour and the Liberal Democrats for a snap General Election.  Labour’s call is perfunctory – they would be very, very negatively impacted by such an election.  UKIP would severely damage them in the North of England. As for the LibDems,  well, enough said.

Secondly, in order to demonstrate that the country can trust Theresa May and her government, we should take immediate steps to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.  There is a suspicion that this step is being delayed and that after April 2017 we would require the approval of 14 EU nations.  Let’s get rid of all of that buy firing the starting pistol, now.  An added benefit of imposing this eminently achievable deadline, is that this would clarify the future somewhat and cause minds to be concentrated rather than us drifting, as we are currently.

Thirdly, announce the immediate abandonment of the HS2 project – this is a project that is a major embarrassment and produces little real benefits – a few meaningless minutes off journey times.  The cost is also likely to balloon above the £50 Billion current level and will damage the physical environment and maybe Conservative election prospects.

Now to the Cabinet. 

Chancellor of the Exchequer – Pundits point to Philip Hammond – Although a Remainer, no problem with his appointment.

Home Secretary – Re-combine this department with Justice and appoint Michael Gove.  If not combining, then leave Gove at Justice, move Michael Fallon to Home Office and appoint Liam Fox as Defence Secretary.

Foreign Secretary – Chris Grayling – a Brexiteer but solid performer

Defence, Education, Transport, Wales, Northern Ireland, Leader of the Lords, Work & Pensions, Scotland – stay with incumbents Michael Fallon, Nicky Morgan, Patrick McLoughlin, Alun Cairns, Theresa Villiers, Baroness Stowell, Stephen Crabb  and David Mundell, respectively

Merge Communities and Local Government ministry and Energy and Climate Change ministry together with Environment, Food and Rural Affairs ministry and appoint Andrea Leadsom. 

Create a new department for England and appoint Jeremy Hunt as minister with Cabinet seat.

Culture, Media & Sport – Add responsibilities for London – Boris Johnson

Business, Innovation and Skills and Minister for Women & Equalities – Priti Patel - She would bring energy and common sense to this brief.

Health – Liz Truss - A very solid media performer who would be able to take-on the doctor's union - the BMA and the other self-serving provider unions, within the NHS

Leader of the House – Greg Clark

International Development – Sajid Javid

Secretary of State for Brexit – David Davis – He is a solid performer, confirmed Brexiteer who commands respect on both sides of the argument.  A man of principle, with a very good ‘back-story’.

So nothing for George Osborne – like Cameron he must suffer the consequences of his Project Fear – not just because it failed but because he so mis-read the electorate.

If Theresa May wanted to be mischievous, she could do worse than appoint Boris Johnson as Secretary of State for Scotland.  He would have no hesitation in slapping down the ‘gobby’ Sturgeon every time she popped-up with another stupid IndyRef2 claim.

The time has come for England to have its own minister and that is why I suggest to appoint someone of the calibre of Jeremy Hunt.  Health is a poisoned chalice and especially so, for a Conservative.  Hunt has made a good fist of his time at that department.

British common sense

What has become of common sense in Britain?  Did it all depart at 04.40 on June 24, 2016, when the BBC’s David Dimbleby announced that Leave had won the European Referendum?

I guess maybe Voltaire was right ‘Common sense is not so common’.

I won’t go into all of the different promises and fears and such that were generated, by both sides, during the campaign, other than to say that Project Fear seem to be very conflicted, post-Brexit.  On the one-hand Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England keeps banging on about the negative monetary impact of Brexit - though one must question the credibility of his statements with barely two weeks of economic data to support them.  On the other hand we have George Osborne, currently still the Chancellor of the Exchequer, now saying that we will ‘thrive”, since we have voted to leave the EU.

Today, Chuka Umunna, a Labour MP, with a voice dripping with disdain for the common man and woman and their democratic rights and exercise thereof, has launched a so called watch-dog  to monitor performance of the Brexit campaign in the implementation of the claims and ‘promises’ that were made by the Leave campaign, during the referendum.

If you know Chuka or any of the other Remainiacs, could you maybe pass on the following?

Leave said that the UK contributed a gross £350 Million a week to the EU.  They went on to say that some of the money, which post-Brexit would no longer be sent to feed the EU  monster, should be spent, instead on the NHS.   Chuka and co. are now saying, “well why aren’t you spending it on the NHS then?”  (I hope that sounded as petulant and foot-stomping as I intended because that is how the Remainiacs sound, to me!)

Let’s consider that. 

Firstly, the United Kingdom is still a full member of the European Union.  Not surprisingly, this means that the EU still requires us to make that weekly contribution.

Secondly, Leave are not the government.  They cannot decide on the spending priorities of the government.

Personally, I am a long way from convinced that throwing ever larger amounts of money into the NHS represents a sensible use of taxpayer funds. I don’t think that the NHS’ problems are monetary but rather they are deep and structural.  Of course Chuka and co. think the solution to every problem is simply to throw someone else’s money – the taxpayer’s – at it.

I started by suggesting that common sense seems to have left the UK.  Perhaps it has just gone on a well-earned rest.  As a Leaver, I certainly think that common sense and decency was displayed in abundance when people voted in the EU referendum.  The people of the UK heard the arguments and decided that, on balance, the UK would, as George Osborne now agrees, prosper outside the EU.  They knew, because they used common sense, that there would be a period, after the vote, when the country would still be in the EU and that the UK  becoming free of the EU and regaining control of its own destiny, would take time.  Chukka and all of the Remaniacs also know this.  They are just trying to make cheap political capital by claiming otherwise and, because they believe that the average voter made the ‘wrong vote’, seeking to overturn the results of the democratic process.  The premise is two fold – Leave won the referendum on false promises and lies and therefore we need a re-run.   

As said the ‘promise’ about the gross £350 million weekly contribution was not false.  The underlying promise was not so much about the money as about who decided how that money was spent – the unelected EU or the democratically elected Westminster government?  That hasn’t changed. When Britain leaves the EU, the British parliament will decide how we spend our national income – all of it.  We won’t be in a position where we have to send a gross £350 million to Brussels, every, single week.  We won’t be in a position where we have to accept the EU deciding where the returned money – something less than 50% of our contribution - is spent. The elected representatives of the British people – the ones that we can kick-out or fire, at an election – will decide.  I appreciate that this doesn’t fit with Chuka and the Remainiacs idea of democracy but there you go. 

Call me a cynic but re-running an election or a referendum because a politician lied or over-promised would leave all democracies in a state of perpetual elections.  Come election-time, voters use common sense and sift through the promises, half-truths and down-right lies and then reach a decision of who they most believe or who is most believable.  Those voters know, absolutely know, that some or much of what they are told by politicians, is simply self-serving and has to be taken with a mountain of salt.

I said earlier on this blog-site that what we now need is a period of calm.  That still stands.  Britain’s political leaders and leading business people need to just quieten down.  They don’t need to be on the air waves saying that the referendum vote should be ignored or somehow re-run until the ‘right’ result is achieved.  Most critically, they need to stop talking down the UK.  I get a strong sense that the Remainiacs are relishing any negative economic news that surfaces and are seeking the fulfilment of their pre-vote prophesies of doom.  This has to stop.  This is impacting not only the UK but also other economies.  I am not talking about the breaking Italian banking crisis, though I am sure that Brexit doesn’t help that situation.  

During the referendum campaign, many Leavers accused Remainiacs of not loving their country and instead preferring the anti-democratic EU, now is the time for Remainiacs to prove them wrong and either accept that Britain can survive outside of the EU, or at least just shut-up.

One particular person who should maintain a period of silence is Mark Carney.  Every time he speaks, the international value of the pound declines.  While that is good for our exporters and those companies with overseas earnings, it runs the risk of stoking inflation in the UK.  So Mr Carney – go on vacation, get a rest but most importantly, shut up.