Scotland's choice

I have written extensively on the subject of Scottish independence.

For the masochists and 'anoraks'  among you read here , here, here,, here on currency, and again here on currency , here on Shetlands and Oil here on Scotland and debt , also here on debt, and again, here.  There have been other posts as well which, if you are so minded you can seek out.

Why so many posts?  Something like 18 by my count.

Well, as an Englishman, of Irish parents, with a son and a grandson born in Scotland, Scotland is personally important to me.  It is an integral part of a great nation - the United Kingdom.  A country that I love.  A country that has a Scottish part, a Welsh part, and Irish part and an English part.  I will be very saddened if the people of Scotland  were to take the irrevocable step of voting for 'independence' from the rest of the UK.

Why 'independence' and not independence?  Well frankly, it is a funny kind of independence that is currently proposed.  An independence that cedes economic policy power to the rest of the UK and, given the ever creeping federalising of the European Union, other powers to Brussels.  Exactly what will Scotland be independent of?  It seems to me that what is really happening is that Alex Salmond and the Scottish Nationalists resent, maybe even hate, the English and this is why they want independence.

Anyway, on Thursday 18 September 2014, a referendum will be held and Scotland's choice will be made.  At the moment it looks like a narrow majority in favour of the  No vote will be the answer.

In some ways that bothers me most.  Non-Scottish politicians have been falling over themselves to offer to grant more powers to the devolved parliament for Scotland.  This is wrong!  Scotland has more than enough power already.  It has had minor tax raising power since devolution was granted and has chosen not to use it.

Have a care !  You politicians may offer Scotland more power but what then of the English?  In the House of Commons, today, we have MPs elected for constituencies in Scotland and in Wales that can vote on matters that solely affect England's constituencies and yet MPs representing English constituencies cannot vote on devolved issues relating to Scotland or Wales.  Mind you, neither can those Scottish and Welsh MPs!

The argument runs that the Westminster parliament is not representative of Scottish opinion because the UK has had the temerity to elect Conservative governments.  Well, bear in mind that Labour relies on the support of 55 Scottish based MPs as part of its power base and this is an overwhelming boost to Labour's electoral chances - absent these seats, Labour would struggle to be the major party in Westminster, as England typically leans toward the Conservative Party.

Since this will be my last blog post before the referendum, I also wanted to mention the tactics of the Yes campaign.  These seem to fall into the following categories.  If faced with a question that is uncomfortable and for which you have no answer, accuse the questioner of 'scare-mongering'.  When your lack of a policy, e.g. on post-independence currency, is challenged, insist that the Westminster parties - all three of the major parties - are bluffing.  When the governor of the Bank of England and numerous other economists chip in with the same questions, repeat the 'they're bluffing ' response.

Then there is the really  nasty side to the debate.  This is exemplified by Jim Sillars, the former leader of the SNP.  He has basically threatened vengeance upon all of those companies that have the temerity to stand-up and be counted and voice their opinion that  a Yes vote is the wrong vote.  There is even talk of nationalising the likes of BP.  Is it any wonder that companies like Standard Life and Royal Bank of Scotland are saying that if there a Yes vote, they will re-domicile their headquarters outside of Scotland.  Obviously the currency uncertainty will play a part but they surely also have a fiduciary duty, in the light of Sillars' comments, to protect their shareholder's interests by avoiding nationalisation.

To the Scots reading this, I say vote No on Thursday and stay in the family of nations that is the greatest on earth.

To the other nationalities that are reading this, get in touch with your Scottish friends and implore them to vote No.

To the politicians I say, stop pandering.  Scotland already has more than enough power.  devolve no more.

Remember VOTE NO!

What is Scotland worth?

I ask this question because it seems to me that the Scottish Nationalist argument all boils down to money.  'It's Scotland's oil' they scream and then prattle on about how Scotland's economy will flourish after they gain independence. 

On the revenue side, Scotland will gain complete access to oil revenues however, all indications on the cost side indicate that Scotland will be close to, or in deficit due to current and future expenditure plans.  Scotland is sitting on a demographic time-bomb relative to an aging pension-requiring population.   For argument's sake, let's say the economic picture is neutral - maybe positive in the short to medium term and moving to negative in the longer term as oil and gas production declines and welfare costs continue to climb.

If you listen to some SNP supporters, you will be told that Scotland was 'sold' to the English for £400,000 (£40 million in today's money).  That amount is the debt that Scotland's then ruling elite faced, because of their failed Darien Scheme, back at the turn of the 18th century.  The argument is that this debt forced Scotland to go 'cap in hand' to the English and union was the price that England demanded. 

So is that what Scotland is 'worth'?  I would strongly say no. 

However, I measure Scotland's worth not in monetary terms but in what the Scottish people, in union with those of England Wales and Ireland, have achieved, together, over the years. 

Created the largest empire that the world has ever seen and brought democracy and legal systems that continue to be used for the benefit of great swathes of mankind.  Topically, consider India just now holding parliamentary elections using the British-inspired democratic model.  We Brits did that! Together!  Contrast that with other countries where power is obtained by the gun and maintained by the gun and by fear! 

Some, including myself, have harped on about government spending and have used that as a measure of Scotland's 'worth'.  The argument is that Scotland receives a higher per capita share of government spending than does England and so relies on English money/largess.  Factually that is so but that doesn't mean that Scotland is somehow 'worth' less than other parts of the United Kingdom!  Statistics show that in 2009, Scotland had a Gross Value Added/per capita result of £19,744.  This compared with £20,442 for England.  However, The North East of England results shows £15,621 but no one suggests that the 'geordies' are somehow not British or should have independence or are 'worth' any less than any other Briton!  Given some of the well-documented social deprivation in the North East and above average levels of unemployment, the per capita spend there is likely higher than in other parts of England and indeed, maybe also Scotland but there is no clamour for Free Newcastle - Free Newcastle Brown Ale, maybe- but no shouts for an independent GeordieLand.

What has prompted my questions on the 'worth' of Scotland is that there seems to be far too few non-Scots and UK MPs speaking on the issue of the independence referendum.  I said here ( http://bit.ly/1kaSHzb) that the United Kingdom seems to have no Plan B if the Scots do vote for independence, but equally I am saddened by the lack of passion coming from Westminster politicians.  They should be making speeches extolling the virtues of the Union and daily banging on about the risks that an independent Scotland face:

Risks like uncertainty over its currency - can't be the pound, might have to be the Euro.

Risks like the very clear steer from the EU, that a newly independent Scotland would have to apply for membership of the EU - membership that would require border controls with England (because Scotland would not have the Schengen opt-outs that the UK enjoys). 

Risks like Scotland having to adopt the Euro as its currency - risks that, if the Scottish Nationalists are right about the strength of an independent Scotland's economy, then that means Scotland contributing to the bail-out of the next Euro-crisis victim (there will be more!).

David Cameron is currently in Scotland and making speeches in favour of a No vote but when I hear him speak, I don't hear any passion.  The deafening silence from Labour's Ed Miliband and the Lib Dems, Nick Clegg is especially concerning, given that Scotland provides a large number of UK parliamentary MPs for those parties.

So my message today, is to all those concerned for the Union, SPEAK UP!  Get on social media and show your pride in being British , whether you are Scottish, English, Welsh or Irish.  Tell the world how Great is Britain and what we, as a united nation have contributed to the world. For example, how a Scot, Sir Alexander Fleming, discovered penicillin, while working in England.  How the Brits brought democracy to the world!  The Greeks only 'invented' the word!