Do you think that the Conservatives, or more accurately David Cameron and George Osborne have some kind of death wish?
I ask because I find it incomprehensible to understand the politics and policies of the Conservatives towards the Scottish, the English and the British.
On September 18, 2014, the voters in Scotland, in a high turn-out, voted No to Scottish independence by a margin of 55%:45%. Not a resounding victory for the No campaign but enough to show a clear position.
The Conservative Party are poorly represented, in terms of MPs elected to the Westminster parliament, by Scotland. Only one Tory MP being elected in the last three elections. In the Scottish Parliament, the Conservatives have just over 10% of the seats and most of these coming arising from the proportional representation system, deployed in those elections.
Why therefore should the Conservatives be so concerned with Scotland? I will come back to this in a moment but for now, think of it in cold electoral terms. Scotland brings next to no electoral benefits to the Conservatives. On the contrary, it elects a huge swathe of Labour opposition MPs. Though this seems likely to change to Scottish Nationalist MPs at upcoming General Election, there is a very strong socialist and redistributive streak that runs through SNP policies, so there isn't that much difference between them.
So why are the Conservatives pushing for the devolution of further powers to Scotland's parliament?
Powers that will maybe allow Scotland to have all of the essential facets of nationhood, such as full tax raising and spending power, without the responsibilities that go with them. The UK will still be the lender of last resort for Scotland and will be the backstop for its profligate spending plans.
As a brief aside, do you notice how quiet the Scottish Nationalists have become on the subject of oil revenues? They were loud and proud when oil was north of $100 a barrel but we here nary a peep now that oil is south of $80 a barrel. Is there any brave economist out there who could run the numbers and see what difference a >20% drop in the oil price would do to the SNP's already fanciful accounting? I keep wondering if the Scots have learned from Darien, that it is always better to have someone to run to when the economic tides turn against you while the English are being led by fools who will allow such an imbalance of responsibilities.
These powers still will not address the fundamental 'West Lothian question'. Scottish MPs will continue to be elected to Westminster, where they can vote on tax measures related to England, Northern Ireland and Wales and yet they will not be able to vote on matters relating to Scottish taxation. If a minority Tory government, with a strong and overall English-seat majority wanted to propose tax reductions for middle and higher earners, such measures could be defeated by a coalition of English Labour MPs and their Scottish counter-parts and the SNP. So the Scots have freedom but not the English.
In what world does this make any sense for the English or represent any notion of fair play?
I know that Conservatives will say that we are a United Kingdom and this is a legitimate response to widely-held Scottish opinion but when will they stop to ask the English? The Scottish 'tail' is well and truly 'wagging' the English dog!
Then we come to Europe. Here the Tories are losing ground to UKIP. Here the Conservatives claim that they are unable to put a referendum before the British people until sometime within 2 1/2 years of the next election.
Think about that. The Conservatives can push through parliament, in the space of a few months, legislation that fundamentally changes the fabric and constitutional settlement of the United Kingdom and yet legislation related to the EU must wait. Consider also, that there is no mandate from the British people, nor even the people of Scotland to push through the proposed changes. Nothing was mentioned, about giving sweeping or indeed, any extra powers to Scotland, in any of the party manifestos, for the 2010 election.
In their haste, the Conservatives are supported by the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. Both of these parties are pro-Europe and hope to reap some electoral rewards in Scotland as a result of this unjust settlement (though all opinion poll predictions are that both of these parties will go the way of the Tories in Scotland)
I believe that the British public know that all of the main parties want to stay in the European Union. That all will campaign on that basis in any eventual referendum. I also believe that the British people want to have a say in the matter. It is perhaps a sign of the times that the people of Scotland can get a vote on issues like independence but the English cannot. That Scotland can get local tax raising powers but the English cannot. Perhaps it is a realisation that given the real powers that actually rest with the European Union, any such local powers, pale into insignificance. What does it matter what taxes are raised in Scotland, England or the United Kingdom, if un-elected Eurocrats can simply decide that the UK must pay more funds to feed the EU beast? And that there is nothing that can be done by the Scots, the English or the British to counter the position (and please do not try to use George Osborne's decidedly dodgy accounting tricks concerning the £1.7Bn, that was recently demanded).
Only UKIP is offering an immediate referendum on EU membership and yet the likelihood of a UKIP parliamentary majority is very slim. They can damage Conservatives and Labour but are highly unlikely to be the majority party nor to hold the balance of power. My sense is that UKIP will damage the Tories on Europe and immigration and will damage Labour on immigration. Labour's (pro) policy on the EU is not something that they really push, though I think that this will be under deeper scrutiny, in the coming months.
So a system of an united governance, for the United Kingdom, that took more than 300 years to develop, can be fundamentally changed in the space of a few months, without the say-so of the people of all of the United Kingdom and yet an alien system, and make no mistake, the EU's definition of democracy - deals done behind the scenes by un-elected Eurocrats - is alien to British ideas of democracy, cannot be even discussed let alone changed until after years of wrangling.
Forget all the talk about fighting for Britain in Europe, that comes from the mouths of politicians. That is at best just a soundbite and at worst an outright lie. Britons fighting in Europe ended in 1945 and since then our democratic freedoms have continuously been whittled away with a rapid acceleration after 1975.
If David Cameron and George Osborne cared a fig for the United Kingdom or even just the Conservative Party, they would put legislation for an EU Referendum, before Parliament immediately. This would take the wind out of the sails of UKIP and would force Labour and the Lib Dems to show their true colours. Most importantly, it would give the people of Britain a voice on an issue of truly fundamental importance.
We don't need any fancy propositions or crazy and undemocratic notions - as for example spouted by Nicola Sturgeon, here - a simple Yes or No to continued membership will suffice. If the result is a Yes, then the strength of the majority will settle things. If a very strong Yes, then nothing more to be said, Britain succumbs to the EU Superstate. If the Yes majority is more narrow - say 10% or less, then Britain seeks a re-negotiation of the terms of membership. If the majority is for No, then we leave the EU, within 12-18 months.
I am not usually one to give out health tips but if you are hoping for a referendum on the EU, don't hold your breath. Unless UKIP do really break the mould of British politics and achieve a significant breakthrough in 2015, we will see no change in British/EU relations until after the 2020 election and by then it may be too late.
Very depressing that we have come to this and especially so that it is at the hands of the Conservatives.
I ask because I find it incomprehensible to understand the politics and policies of the Conservatives towards the Scottish, the English and the British.
On September 18, 2014, the voters in Scotland, in a high turn-out, voted No to Scottish independence by a margin of 55%:45%. Not a resounding victory for the No campaign but enough to show a clear position.
The Conservative Party are poorly represented, in terms of MPs elected to the Westminster parliament, by Scotland. Only one Tory MP being elected in the last three elections. In the Scottish Parliament, the Conservatives have just over 10% of the seats and most of these coming arising from the proportional representation system, deployed in those elections.
Why therefore should the Conservatives be so concerned with Scotland? I will come back to this in a moment but for now, think of it in cold electoral terms. Scotland brings next to no electoral benefits to the Conservatives. On the contrary, it elects a huge swathe of Labour opposition MPs. Though this seems likely to change to Scottish Nationalist MPs at upcoming General Election, there is a very strong socialist and redistributive streak that runs through SNP policies, so there isn't that much difference between them.
So why are the Conservatives pushing for the devolution of further powers to Scotland's parliament?
Powers that will maybe allow Scotland to have all of the essential facets of nationhood, such as full tax raising and spending power, without the responsibilities that go with them. The UK will still be the lender of last resort for Scotland and will be the backstop for its profligate spending plans.
As a brief aside, do you notice how quiet the Scottish Nationalists have become on the subject of oil revenues? They were loud and proud when oil was north of $100 a barrel but we here nary a peep now that oil is south of $80 a barrel. Is there any brave economist out there who could run the numbers and see what difference a >20% drop in the oil price would do to the SNP's already fanciful accounting? I keep wondering if the Scots have learned from Darien, that it is always better to have someone to run to when the economic tides turn against you while the English are being led by fools who will allow such an imbalance of responsibilities.
These powers still will not address the fundamental 'West Lothian question'. Scottish MPs will continue to be elected to Westminster, where they can vote on tax measures related to England, Northern Ireland and Wales and yet they will not be able to vote on matters relating to Scottish taxation. If a minority Tory government, with a strong and overall English-seat majority wanted to propose tax reductions for middle and higher earners, such measures could be defeated by a coalition of English Labour MPs and their Scottish counter-parts and the SNP. So the Scots have freedom but not the English.
In what world does this make any sense for the English or represent any notion of fair play?
I know that Conservatives will say that we are a United Kingdom and this is a legitimate response to widely-held Scottish opinion but when will they stop to ask the English? The Scottish 'tail' is well and truly 'wagging' the English dog!
Then we come to Europe. Here the Tories are losing ground to UKIP. Here the Conservatives claim that they are unable to put a referendum before the British people until sometime within 2 1/2 years of the next election.
Think about that. The Conservatives can push through parliament, in the space of a few months, legislation that fundamentally changes the fabric and constitutional settlement of the United Kingdom and yet legislation related to the EU must wait. Consider also, that there is no mandate from the British people, nor even the people of Scotland to push through the proposed changes. Nothing was mentioned, about giving sweeping or indeed, any extra powers to Scotland, in any of the party manifestos, for the 2010 election.
In their haste, the Conservatives are supported by the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. Both of these parties are pro-Europe and hope to reap some electoral rewards in Scotland as a result of this unjust settlement (though all opinion poll predictions are that both of these parties will go the way of the Tories in Scotland)
I believe that the British public know that all of the main parties want to stay in the European Union. That all will campaign on that basis in any eventual referendum. I also believe that the British people want to have a say in the matter. It is perhaps a sign of the times that the people of Scotland can get a vote on issues like independence but the English cannot. That Scotland can get local tax raising powers but the English cannot. Perhaps it is a realisation that given the real powers that actually rest with the European Union, any such local powers, pale into insignificance. What does it matter what taxes are raised in Scotland, England or the United Kingdom, if un-elected Eurocrats can simply decide that the UK must pay more funds to feed the EU beast? And that there is nothing that can be done by the Scots, the English or the British to counter the position (and please do not try to use George Osborne's decidedly dodgy accounting tricks concerning the £1.7Bn, that was recently demanded).
Only UKIP is offering an immediate referendum on EU membership and yet the likelihood of a UKIP parliamentary majority is very slim. They can damage Conservatives and Labour but are highly unlikely to be the majority party nor to hold the balance of power. My sense is that UKIP will damage the Tories on Europe and immigration and will damage Labour on immigration. Labour's (pro) policy on the EU is not something that they really push, though I think that this will be under deeper scrutiny, in the coming months.
So a system of an united governance, for the United Kingdom, that took more than 300 years to develop, can be fundamentally changed in the space of a few months, without the say-so of the people of all of the United Kingdom and yet an alien system, and make no mistake, the EU's definition of democracy - deals done behind the scenes by un-elected Eurocrats - is alien to British ideas of democracy, cannot be even discussed let alone changed until after years of wrangling.
Forget all the talk about fighting for Britain in Europe, that comes from the mouths of politicians. That is at best just a soundbite and at worst an outright lie. Britons fighting in Europe ended in 1945 and since then our democratic freedoms have continuously been whittled away with a rapid acceleration after 1975.
If David Cameron and George Osborne cared a fig for the United Kingdom or even just the Conservative Party, they would put legislation for an EU Referendum, before Parliament immediately. This would take the wind out of the sails of UKIP and would force Labour and the Lib Dems to show their true colours. Most importantly, it would give the people of Britain a voice on an issue of truly fundamental importance.
We don't need any fancy propositions or crazy and undemocratic notions - as for example spouted by Nicola Sturgeon, here - a simple Yes or No to continued membership will suffice. If the result is a Yes, then the strength of the majority will settle things. If a very strong Yes, then nothing more to be said, Britain succumbs to the EU Superstate. If the Yes majority is more narrow - say 10% or less, then Britain seeks a re-negotiation of the terms of membership. If the majority is for No, then we leave the EU, within 12-18 months.
I am not usually one to give out health tips but if you are hoping for a referendum on the EU, don't hold your breath. Unless UKIP do really break the mould of British politics and achieve a significant breakthrough in 2015, we will see no change in British/EU relations until after the 2020 election and by then it may be too late.
Very depressing that we have come to this and especially so that it is at the hands of the Conservatives.
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