SNP - Wind your neck in!

The SNP aided by the BBC seem to have got above themselves.  They both seem to forget that in September 2014, in a turnout significantly in excess of the 2015 General Election turnout (85% versus 71%) Scottish Independence was soundly rejected by Scottish voters.  The  55% No campaign  beating the the 45% for Yes.

Both also seem to have lost sight of the fact that, while the SNP captured a total of 56 of the 59 seats available within Scotland, they actually gained less than 50% of the votes cast.

Now we have the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, who is not even a member of the UK Parliament, thinking that she can rule the Westminster roost.  Truth is, she is most likely to have trouble controlling her own newly elected Westminster MPs who are acting like an uncouth rabble and are being egged on by Ms Sturgeon's, predecessor Alex Salmond and one will soon have to question if the dual role - Scottish First Minister and SNP Leader are compatible.

Time for some perspective.

Scotland represents less than 10% of the population of the UK, less than 10% of the UK economy and less than 10% of the seats at Westminster.  The SNP popular vote of 1.454 million was dwarfed by UKIP's 3.88 million and even by the Lib Dems 2.41 million - so when it comes to 'speaking for the people' a sense of proportion wouldn't be out of place.  Yes, the SNP gained 56 seats while UKIP only gained 1 and the Lib Dems just 8 and yes that is a reflection of the 'first past the post' system but that is the system that the UK chose to retain, when given a choice. However, as said, the SNP are always a minority party.

Out of courtesy, and, I hope,  only for that reason, David Cameron trooped up to Edinburgh, post election and held talks with Ms Sturgeon about fulfilling the Conservative plans on implementing the Smith Commission.  This is something which, while it represents even greater power for the Holyrood parliament, is actually opposed by Sturgeon - supposedly on the grounds that it doesn't go far enough.  Leave aside that the policy, called Full Fiscal Autonomy, was developed by Scottish politicians, Sturgeon fears FFA.  She fears this (and that is why Cameron must rigorously pursue it), because Sturgeon and the SNP will then be found wanting.  The Scottish economy simply cannot fund the lavish policies that the SNP push, based on its own economy.  It absolutely needs funding from the UK Exchequer.  The loonies that thuggishly follow the SNP  will spout on about Scotland's oil and so on, though they have been (mercifully) quite since the significant post IndyRef  decline in oil prices, but the simple fact is that Scotland needs funding from the UK, indeed, let's not be coy, they need funding from England.

She is also fearful because the SNP are being found out, in their own back-yard.   The SNP controlled parliament at Holyrood has presided over a frightening decline in educational attainment and standards, coupled with a significant reduction in the number of students from poor families, attending university.  We might expect a re-branded and hopefully suitably chastened Scottish Labour Party, along with the Conservatives and Lib Dems, will focus on these and other failings on the already existing devolved powers, when the next Holyrood elections are held, in 2016.

To hear the newly elected SNP Westminster MPs you would think that they have a mandate for governing the UK.  Simple truth is that they don't.  They don't even have a Scottish mandate!  They need to wind in their necks and get down to the real business of representing all of their constituents - those that voted for them and those that, in equal proportion, didn't vote for them.

And while we are on the subject of people losing their sense of proportion, let's be clear.  Scotland had its Independence Referendum and everyone agreed, including Salmond, Sturgeon and the SNP, that this was a once in a generation event.  Now the UK Government is planning to hold a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union.  This will be a countrywide referendum and will apply to the whole country and the results will be for the whole country.  If a majority of people in Scotland, Wales, Yorkshire or even 35 Acacia Avenue, Solihull vote to remain in the EU while the majority vote to exit, then we all exit.  Ms Sturgeon has put forward a warped sense of democracy, as discussed here.

I am sure that the SNP and Yes voters retain a sour taste in their mouth after the IndyRef vote loss but now the SNP need to shut-up and get on with the job that they were elected to do!

Labour's defeat

I don't wish to take anything away from the, frankly stunning, victory of David Cameron's Conservatives but the UK GE2015 election results are almost as much about the defeat of Labour as about the Conservatives.

The opinion pollsters will now conduct a post mortem into their abject failure to predict the outcome of the election.  Whatever, they now say, the polls that they published understated support for Conservatives and overstated that for Labour.  I like to think that they got it so wrong because the people that they asked consistently chose to fool the pollsters - otherwise known as lie to them, rather than give them straight, honest answers.   I am no psephologist but I always wonder how polling around a 1,000 people can give any kind of reasonable view or cross-section of the polling intentions of 46 million voters.

Anyway, no doubt the pollsters will enquire and conclude that it was the voters that were wrong and not them.  I can't see many people having much faith in their polls until they have re-built credibility.

So to Labour.

Ed Miliband resigned the leadership of Labour, once it became clear that they had soundly lost the election.  There are some, me included, that think his resignation was about four years too late but......

Now Labour does what it does best.  It will have a leadership election that will solve nothing.  Much as I didn't like Ed Miliband - he just didn't come across as sincere or honest - the biggest problem with Labour was their policies and over-riding that fatal flaw was their absolute unwillingness to accept any responsibility for the financial crisis that the UK faced, at the time of the 2010 General Election.  If I was a Conservative strategist, I would replay to the British public, time and time again, the part of the so called 'Leaders Question Time' where Miliband is asked if Labour overspent and he says no.  The audience reaction of utter disbelief, was surely reflective of the country at large.

Unless and until Labour say sorry for the financial mess, they will always lose on the economy, always.  They spoke, time and again, as did the odious SNP, about cuts and austerity and, did I mention savage cuts?  Yet people understand that while some of these did impact heavily upon some people, overall, these were essential and were handled sensitively.   Labour bang on about the NHS in some sort of proprietorial way but for me, people don't distrust the Conservatives anywhere near as much as Labour think they do or should.  I think that on the NHS, the discussion is moving more towards the Conservative side than Labour understand.  

The reason I mention some of the Labour election platform is that the current candidates for Ed Miliband's position seem destined to repeat the errors of his leadership,

The candidates are

Andy Burnham - I can state categorically that it isn't the whiny voice and his sense of  only he being able to 'really, really' understand and 'really, really' feel the pain of people, that bothers me about the 'emote at the drop of a hat' Burnham.  It his failure to take any responsibility for the 1,300+ unnecessary deaths which occurred in his beloved NHS, at Mid Staffs and elsewhere, when he was in-charge of the NHS.  Read the horror of Mid Staffs here  Simply put, Burnham has displayed very serious character flaws.  That and his allegiance to old-style Labour re-distributionist policies show him to be out of touch with the aspirations of people. Some other posts on the NHS are here  and here

Yvette Cooper - Can sound a little shrill at times but her most serious flaw, aside from being tied to out-dated policies, is that she is the wife of Ed Balls.  I can't speak to what attracted her to Balls nor what keeps her there but surely, at some recent point in their relationship she should have been able to convince Balls that he and Miliband needed to apologise for the financial mess and to take responsibility for it.  If she cannot persuade the man who shares a bed with her, of the massive errors of the party platform, then what faith can anyone have in her ability to negotiate on behalf of the UK or firmly deal with her union paymasters?  Every time I see Yvette Cooper, I think Ed Balls and I immediately think financial mess.  Maybe that's not fair, but that is my reality, and I would suspect that of many others.

Chuka Umana - Should narcissism be a qualifying condition for the leadership?  Every time I see Chuka, I see someone that seems more interested in how he looks and if his tie matches his suit and shirt etc.  Editor in Chief of GQ magazine  - maybe but far too lightweight to lead the Labour Party.  Imagine if you will, horror that it might be, that Labour is in power and Chuka has to face down Len McCluskey  of Unite regarding a series of public sector strikes and also to contend with aggressive moves from Putin's Russia and, at the same time, Daesh attacks in the UK.  Can you see that and see Chuka with any kind of the required knowledge and experience or gravitas?  Umana has been described (by himself?) as the UK's Obama.  Seeing how the former Community Organiser, Obama, has created great divisions within the US and promoted failed policy after failed policy, and destroyed America's standing in the world.  Should Labour elect someone with such aspirations?

The other declared candidates.  
Liz Kendall  I know little about, which maybe is a good thing because she maybe isn't painted into that 'we didn't overspend' corner and without such baggage may be able to provide Labour with a policy platform that focuses on the needs and aspirations of real people rather than a metropolitan elite.
Tristram Hunt - His opposition to Michael Gove's education reforms should automatically disqualify him - again, his adherence to party and union dogma seeks to override the aspirations of people.


Like many people, I find that Labour has nothing to offer me or my children.  Fundamentally, that is their problem.  The leadership is much less relevant.  Miliband's ineptitude with a bacon sandwich didn't help.  His inability to say sorry was a key factor - a clear character flaw. At the end of the day though, it always come down to policy and Labour had nothing to offer today's voters.  Until they get that right, it doesn't matter who they chose as leader!

GE2015 Part Four - Don't delay

Wow!, I mean Wow!

The Conservatives are on course to achieve an overall, though slim, majority.

Hats off to David Cameron, George Osborne, Lynton Crosby and all of the candidates and hard-working constituency workers.

As was predicted in the opinion polls (something that they did get right!), the Scottish National Party scooped-up almost all of the seats in Scotland, gaining 56 of 59.

The Lib Dems, until recently the Conservative's partners in Coalition,  have been severely reduced - they will likely end with 8 seats down from their 54 seats won in 2010.

Labour were all but wiped-out in their Scottish strong-hold and now have just one seat, there and have been hit by the Conseravtives and indeed, UKIP, in the North of England..

There have been some notable casualties along the way.  Obviously those Scottish Labour MPs that were Shadow Cabinet members but also Ed Balls the Shadow Chancellor.  Balls was a member of former Labour leader Gordon Brown's inner circle and intimately involved with Labour's profligacy and.  Throughout the 5 years of the Coalition and this campaign he, and Labour leader Ed Miliband, have steadfastly refused to either apologise for ruining Britain's economy nor for admitting that they overspent.

Also gone is Danny Alexander who spitefully leaked a welfare position paper and suggested it was a policy that the Lib Dems stopped.   The ever awkward Vince Cable has also gone and the promoter of foolish Green policies, Ed Davey has also left the House!

It is looking like Miliband and the Lib Dems leader, Nick Clegg, will resign.  Nigel Farage, of UKIP has already said he will resign as leader, if not elected, and that outcome is looking likely. Natalie Bennett of the Green Party was not elected and so other than the Ulster parties, David Cameron looks to be on course to be the only Westminster leader that survives this election.  Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, didn't contest a Westminster seat.

Now it is time to get back to work.

I know that there is a manifesto that lists out the policy programme but let's cut to the chase and start the ball rolling with the following:

• Implement the Smith Commission proposals and give Full Fiscal Authority to Scotland.  In doing so, the much discredited Barnett Formula falls away and the money saved, can be used in England and Wales.

• Implement the Boundary Changes that were put forward, by the independent Boundary Commission, a couple of years ago.

• Deliver on the promise of a referendum on membership of the European Union by enshrining this in law - to the effect that it must occur on a date before the end of 2017

• Set out a timetable for the re-negotiation of the terms of Britain's membership of the European Union.

• Introduce legislation, that means that on devolved matters, MPs from non-English constituencies, cannot vote at Westminster.

• Vote into law the Budget, that was presented, just before the last Parliament was dissolved.  Consider adding to that to include the changes on inheritance tax, with immediate effect.

These actions need to be put into place now.  With such a slim majority, there is every need to get these underway and while the opposition are focused on internal struggles, recrimination and power-plays, what better opportunity?

GE2015 Part Three

The one about Tactical Voting!  This was written before the latest TV Question Time

Before I get into the subject of voting tactically at this election, I need to pause so that I can summon up the courage to push that line.

In the meantime........, while the Conservatives continue to maintain a very slender lead over Labour, it is a cause of serious concern.  Labour appears to be heading for annihilation in Scotland and so if they are running an extremely close second (sometimes even in front) to the Tories, nationally, then this suggests that in the rest of the UK, they are doing reasonably well!  It can't be down to Welsh Labour dominance - there just aren't enough of the total electorate.

As said here , the current opinion poll position seems to defy logic given the major advances made by the country, under the Tories and their Lib Dem coalition partners, in the recent past.  Especially, when one considers the parlous state of the country's finances bequeathed by the last Labour government.

And so........Tactical voting.

I think that it is time, for the sake of the country to suck-it-up and vote tactically.

There is a wheel circulating (no pun intended) that shows which party to vote for in many constituencies, in Scotland.  This means Labour and Lib Dems putting their X against a Conservative candidate and Conservatives and Labour doing the same for Lib Dems.  The 'wheel' then advises for the non-specified seats to divert votes to Labour.   The 'wheel' looks at around 17 seats so if it was successful it would break the current Labour hegemony in Scotland but would leave them with a sizable 'rump' and, critically, would keep the SNP away from being a Westminster 'power-broker'




This addresses what is needed in Scotland and I encourage any readers to strongly consider this and to work on other right-minded people to do likewise, for that country.

In England, the picture is somewhat more mixed and less straightforward.  I don't have a 'wheel' but here is my advice:

For the following constituencies, vote UKIP - Yes, Conservatives and Lib Dems and anyone else,, Vote UKIP in these constituencies.

Burnley

Cannock Chase

Clacton

Doncaster N

Dudley N

Great Grimsby

Heywood & Middleton

Plymouth Moor View

Redcar

Rother Valley

Rotherham

Thurrock

Walsall N

For the following constituencies, vote Lib Dems - Yes, Conservatives and UKIP and anyone else, Vote Lib Dems in these constituencies.

Bermondsey & Old Southwark

Birmingham Yardley

Bradford E

Brent Central

Bristol W

Cambridge

Cardiff Central

Carshalton & Wallington

Cheltenham

Colchester

Cornwall N

Eastbourne

Hornsey & Wood Green

Lewes

Manchester Withington

Sheffield Hallam

Sutton & Cheam

Thornbury and Yate

For the following constituencies, vote Conservative  - Yes, UKIPpers and Lib Dems and anyone else, Vote Conservative.  UKIPpers - If you want an EU referendum, you know it makes sense!

Amber Valley

Basildon S & Thurrock E

Bedford

Berwick upon Tweed

Birmingham Edgbaston

Blackpool N & Cleveleys

Boston and Skegness

Brecon and Radnorshire

Brentford & Isleworth

Brighton Kemptown

Brighton Pavilion

Bristol NW

Broxtowe

Bury North

Camborne & Redruth

Canmbridgeshire NE

Cardiff N

Carlisle

Carmarthen W and Pembroke S

Castle Point

Cheadle

Chester

Chippenham

Cleethorpes

Colne Valley

Corby

Crewe & Nantwich

Croydon Central

Derby N

Devon N

Dewsbury

Dorset Mid & Poole N

Dover

Dudley S

Ealing Central & Acton

Eastleigh

Elmet & Rothwell

Enfield N

Erewash

Finchley & Golders Green

Folkestone & Hythe

Gloucester

Great Yarmouth

Halesowen & Rowley Regis

Halifax

Hampstead & Kilburn

Harlow

Harrogate & Knaresborough

Harrow E

Hastings & Rye

Hazel Grove

Hendon

High Peak

Hove

Ipswich

Kingston & Surbiton

Kingswood

Lancaster & Fleetwood

Lincoln

Loughborough

Milton Keynes South

Morecambe and Lunesdale

Morley and Outwood

Newark

Newton Abbot

Northampton N

Norwich North

Norwich South

Nuneaton

Oxford W & Abingdon

Pendle

Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

Portsmouth S

Pudsey

Rochester & Strood

Rossendale and Darwen

Sherwood

Solihull

Somerset North East

Somerton & Frome

South Ribble

southampton Itchen

Southport

St Austell & Newquay

St Ives

Stevenage

Stroud

Surrey SW

Swindon S

Taunton Deane

Telford

Thanet N

Thanet S

Torbay

Truro & Falmouth

Twickenham

Uxbridge and Ruislip S

Vale of Glamorgan

Warrington South

Warwick & Leamington

Warwickshire N

Watford

Waveney

Weaver Vale

Wells

Wirral S

Wirral W

Witney

Wolverhampton SW

Worcester

Wyre Forest

Indeed, if in any doubt and if your constituency isn't mentioned, Vote Conservative.