GE17 - And we're off!

Britain’s Prime Minister has fired the gun on a General Election.  The vote will occur on June 8^th and presents the electorate with a stark choice – competence and clarity or chaos and calamity.

Let’s see if we can analyse some of the issues facing the UK, at this juncture.

The ‘elephant in the room’ of course is Brexit.  It speaks volumes that Labour want to make the election about taxing and taxing the ‘rich’ and borrowing and borrowing so that they can spend and spend money we don’t have, however, intelligent people know that Brexit is key.

And that key is all about trust.  Does Britain trust Theresa May to deliver a Brexit that is good for the UK or do they trust a makeshift coalition of Labour, the Lib-Dems, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens? 

Going into these critical Brexit negotiations, Britain needs a strong government with a clear mandate and Brexit policy.  Only the Conservatives offer this.

Consider, Labour doesn’t really know what its policy on Europe or Brexit is.  Prior to starting this article I tried to find out, where they stood.  I am still looking.  They are the party of mass immigration and failed multi-culturalism policies and so one can assume that they support ‘freedom of movement’ (FOM) and yet their position isn’t clearly stated but, simply supporting FOM without also accepting the other three ‘freedoms’, would not be acceptable to the EU. 

The Lib-Dems are rabidly pro-EU.  The media have continually allowed them to lie and lie, since the referendum.  They have repeatedly claimed that the British people weren’t told that voting Leave meant leaving the Single Market.  That’s simply not true.  We were told repeatedly – Cameron, Osborne et al – spoke on all media channels and made this crystal clear.  We knew and we voted the way we did, even though we knew.  Simply put, the UK doesn’t need the Single Market.  We will flourish outside of it.

The SNP are probably the most conflicted.  They are obsessed with Scottish independence.  Even to the extent that they want independence from the UK so that they can be subsumed into the EU super-state.  They have never explained how that equates in any way with a sane person’s concept of independence.  For the SNP, Brexit like Holyrood politics is all part of a game. They are serial mis-managers of the devolved powers for Scotland and now are very worried that Brexit will put a million watt spotlight on their ineptitude.

The Greens?  Well they look at countries like Germany where, through proportional representation (PR), Greens have differing degrees of parliamentary representation and sense that the EU offers them the best hope of the same in the UK.   Of course PR was rejected by the UK electorate, in a referendum but we all know that the Greens, and indeed the Lib-Dems are no respecters of referendum results.

Theresa May has laid out her twelve key Brexit issues in January’s Lancaster House speech. 

The first of these was Certainty and in some way, underpins her going to the country in spite of repeated assurances that she would not call a snap election.  I am often cynical about politicians – age and experience will do that to you – but I do believe that she has to go to the country and gain a mandate rather than be constantly sniped at and sabotaged by ‘Remainers’ and political opportunists from all sides.  I sincerely hope she is re-elected in June and has a sizable parliamentary majority with which to govern. 

To return for a moment to political gamers.  Theresa May has had to contend, on a constant basis with opposition politicians saying she had no ‘mandate’ with which to run the country or Britain’s Brexit negotiations.  They say that she ‘wasn’t elected’.  In part that’s true but then no Prime Minister is ‘elected’.  They are selected to lead the party with the largest parliamentary presence and then invited, by HM The Queen, to form a government.  All of them, exactly the same way.  Now though, that she is seeking such a clear mandate, she is castigated by these very same politicians, as being ‘opportunistic’.  See why I am sometimes cynical?

Inextricably linked with Brexit is the subject of immigration.  May, in her Lancaster House speech was clear on the need to control immigration.  And that is the nub – control of immigration.  Post-Brexit control of immigration will rest with the UK.  We will not be instructed, as some other EU partners have been, that there is a quota which we must take in.  The UK will allow immigration to meet our needs not to fulfil some lunacy that comes from the mind of a deranged German Chancellor or the fools in the EU headquarters.  The UK will control immigration.

Labour have always portrayed themselves as the protectors of the NHS and as being very pro-education.  Yet it is precisely Labour’s policy of uncontrolled immigration which has put such strains on the NHS. Leave aside for a moment, so called health tourism.  The numbers of immigrants that came in during Labour’s reign cannot be absorbed into a strained NHS – there simply are not enough hospitals, nurses and doctors.  Nor could we afford to have sufficient.  The same applies to schools – we cannot afford to build enough nor to train and employ sufficient teachers.  It is typically appropriate of Labour that their policies are never thought through.  They import millions of immigrants but fail to provide services like housing, health and schooling for them. 

And who suffers most?  Not the well-off or ‘middle-class’.  They don’t live in inner-cities.  They can send their children to private schools rather than over-crowded State ones. They can avail of private medicine rather than wait weeks or months for a GP or hospital appointment. No it is the traditional Labour voter that suffers – the White working class.  These voters see access to medical services as just about impossible, see their children crammed into classrooms alongside immigrant children who cannot even speak English and see their educational opportunities suffer as resources are diverted and they see scarce housing resources given to and funded for, immigrants rather than for native born people.  That’s Labour for you!

Another ‘elephant in the room’ seems to be whether or not Theresa May should/will participate in TV debates.  Firstly, these are an unwelcome American import that serve little to advance democracy or understanding of a political party’s policies.  The smaller parties, who have zero chance of gaining power, can simply make wild promises and score cheap shots off of the major ones.  Secondly, since the Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionists are not national parties why on earth would they participate? 

If I were Theresa May, I would recognise that with such a commanding opinion poll lead, I would have nothing to gain from participation and perhaps something to lose.  Just as importantly, I would continue to go over the heads of the overly self-important political correspondents and talk directly to the people.  Remember, my vote is as important as any of these jumped-up wanna-bes!

So I will jump the gun and offer some ideas, other than being strong on Brexit, for inclusion in the Conservative manifesto.

I will start with International Aid.  The 0.7% of GDP commitment should be scrapped.  I do believe that we should aspire to give this or even more but we must look after our own, first.  It sickens me (there’s that cynicism again) when I hear politicians talking about child poverty or fuel poverty in the UK and being somehow disgusted by food banks and yet the very same politicians are happy to send huge quantities of UK taxpayer money to oftentimes, corrupt regimes, elsewhere.  A saying that hasn’t gone out of date is ‘Charity begins at Home’.  Oh, and I view food banks as very positive.  These are set-up by British people, funded and supplied by British people and for the benefit of British people.  I know that this cuts out the busy-body charities with their over-paid executives but these food banks speak of the true and decent Britons that we all know.

Next, scrap H2S.  Britain simply doesn’t need this high speed rail system.  What we have is sufficient.  Instead, the government should spend a fraction of the money on dramatically improving broadband connectivity across the UK.  I am not especially ‘green’ but can certainly agree that we don’t need to be expending energy moving people around – we need people to stay put, when possible and to use technology not precious and finite fuels.

While I am in a ‘scrapping’ frame of mind.  Scrap the triple lock on pensions.  Instead, guarantee that State pensions will increase in line with an appropriate measure of inflation.

Controlling immigration will present challenges to certain industries.  These industries have benefited from cheap low waged immigrants.  These businesses have also been subsidised by the UK taxpayer who has provided Working Tax Credits and other Gordon Brown type wheezes which disguised the societal impact of a low wage economy.  Such benefits must be scrapped – not absorbed into the Universal Credit or anything like that, scrapped and the unemployed should have benefits withdrawn if they fail to take up available work.  Yes some will say that is harsh but why should some work to keep others who can work but choose not to?  People who say ‘I don’t want to pick potatoes’ or ‘I don’t want to serve coffees’ or ‘I don’t want to sweep the streets’.

Finally, EVEL!  English votes for English laws.  With the devolved assemblies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, it is simply undemocratic that MPs from those countries can vote on matters that only affect the English.  In such cases, only MPs representing English constituencies should vote. 

After the referendum?

This post is mainly addressed to elected MPs of the Conservative persuasion.

Whatever the outcome of the EU Referendum, I really think that David Cameron is peddling pure fantasy if he thinks that things can go back to 'normal'.

The party line is that after the vote, Conservatives will come together , sing a couple of verses of Kumbaya and return to governing the country.  That those people who have been peddling lies, half-truths and highly selective use of statistics will gather around the Cabinet room table, with their colleagues from the Brexit camp, and just 'get along'.

Further that the 150+ Conservative MPs, who support Brexit will become quiescent and follow the Tory party whip.  That these MPs will ignore the distrust that Cameron and Osborne have sewn with their attempts to fix the outcome of the EU referendum.

As said above, I think this is pure fantasy and I think that David Cameron and George Osborne know this.

I posit that Cameron and Osborne are actually planning an exit strategy that has them, and 'their' Remain MPs joining with those Labour Remainers, that are disaffected with the ineffectual and frankly disastrous  Jeremy Corbyn leadership, and forming a new political organisation.

Some will say it is unlikely that Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham would be prepared to break bread with Cameron and Osborne.  I am not one of them.  Consider, Labour has made lots of noise about 'austerity' and what they call swingeing cuts but they know the reality is that Osborne continues to spend and borrow like the 'reddest' of Labour Chancellors.  Austerity has been a stick to beat each other with but this has been a feebly deployed weapon by both sides.  Don't believe me?  Then explain how the Tories have been 'savagely cutting public expenditure' for the last 6 years and yet the National Debt has more than doubled to £1.6 Trillion.

This all may sound far-fetched but the Tories have a small majority, 12 , I believe and if Cameron cannot govern with an 'unruly' bunch of Brexiteers, then maybe he and Osborne would consider it best to break things up.  Of course it would be dressed-up as them 'not leaving the Conservative Party but the Conservative Party having left them' but the result would be a split.

And frankly,  I can see this happening, whatever the outcome of the vote.

That is, if (hopefully, when) a vote for Brexit is achieved, they and the Remainers would seek to frustrate the negotiations surrounding the Brexit so as to, in some perverted way, bring about the fulfillment of some of their wild referendum campaign claims and to seek a new referendum, where the environment/argument would then be 'we told you so'.

If, heaven forbid, there is a vote to 'remain' then Cameron can expect a leadership challenge and clearly Osborne's chance of succeeding him have evaporated so, why wouldn't they want to get ahead of the field and leave?  For the Labour 'deserters' they will point to the next-to-non-existent referendum campaigning  from Corbyn and his less than whole-hearted support for a clear Labour policy.  They might even call it a National Coalition Party and a coming together to 'heal the wounds and deep divisions that the referendum has created', etc..  With the huge amounts of money that the government spends on 'Special Advisers' (SPADs) you can expect these to come up with all sorts of rational-sounding reasons why it is the 'extremist right wing' of the Conservatives and other 'swivel-eyed loonies' that are at fault and so on.  These people will be called racists, 'little Englanders' etc..

So my advice to the Brexiteers is to get your retaliation in, first.  Disturb the 'peace' of the Conservative Party by initiating a vote of confidence  and a leadership challenge, now - don't wait for the outcome of the referendum.  Distract Cameron and Osborne from their lie-peddling and give them a new focus - their own survival.  Throw them off-balance and change the battleground.

In my view, the future of the Conservative Party, and indeed, Conservative policies, is at stake and the time for a pre-emptive challenge is now.

From Osborne, we have repeatedly seen how when someone pushes back, he folds - look at his tax credit policy, as a prime example.  Same really applies to Cameron - child refugees, anyone?.  Use these weaknesses and, in the process, save Britain.  Cameron and Osborne have adopted the bully boy tactics favoured by the Eurocrats and anti-democrats in Brussels but like all bullies they only attack those who do not defend themselves.  Like all liars and half-truth peddlers, they change the subject when faced with facts or the demand for evidence of their claims.

If Remain wins, it will only be because Cameron has repeatedly lied and stacked the deck against Brexit and has gotten into bed with Socialists and terrorist sympathisers and has called in favours from around the world from members of the 'Elite Club' who see democracy as something to be overcome and cheated against, rather than complied with

Business as usual , after June 23rd?  I don't think so.

Working Tax Credits - Resolve is needed

What a state we have come to.  The government, in furtherance of a manifesto promise is seeking to reduce, with the long term aim of eliminating, Working Tax Credits. 

These are effectively subsidies paid to workers, who are not paid sufficient by their employers.  They were invented by Gordon Brown.  Brown was very adept at creating long fused bombs for successor Chancellors of the Exchequer.  In this crazy world of Brownomics, people get taxed highly and then get some of the tax that they have just paid, refunded to them.

The Conservative’s approach has been to increase the starting point when taxes commence.  This was a Liberal Democrat idea (also pushed by yours truly) however, the Conservatives, with a strengthening economy have taken this further than the Lib Dems dreamt of. 

This surely is the right way to go.  Lift more and more people out of tax, altogether and therefore make work pay, for those trapped on welfare.  Linking this with a reasonable National Minimum Wage means that gradually, the lower paid get to keep more, or indeed all of the money that they earn, and the government gets their hand out of the pockets of the poor and ‘nanny statism’ starts to recede.  How could it ever have been right, other than in the fantasy world of  socialistic policy, to take money from people through the wage packet and then give it immediately back? 

One can expect die-hard Socialists to support the continuance of such lunacy – big government is what they are all about – but one would expect better of Conservative MPs.  I repeat, the Conservative manifesto included clear reference to the plan to reduce the deficit and to do so, in part, with cuts to welfare payments.  Did these rebellious Conservatives think that David Cameron and George Osborne had discovered the source of Labour’s evergreen money tree?  That welfare would be cut and no one would feel any pain?  We need to get people out of the trap that Brown and Labour set for them.  Unfortunately, that means pain.  From a purely electoral perspective, what better time than at the start of a five year parliament?   

As a country, we need to stop people ‘gaming’ the system.  Refusing to work extra hours because to do so, would jeopardise their benefits.  As a country we cannot afford it, neither in terms of an over-bloated welfare bill nor in terms of lost efficiency and opportunities in the workplace.

Much as I hesitate to create further issues with this matter, maybe some of the effect can be mitigated by incentivising employers to pay more in salary and wages to the low paid.  Something that gets them to paying above the National Minimum Wage much earlier.  Maybe further reductions in employers National Insurance?  Working Tax Credits have acted as a subsidy from the tax payer to low-paying employers.  I doubt that even Labour didn’t intend that but this is a certain consequence.    It is estimated that low paid employees would need around 60-70p per hour extra, to make-up for the shortfall.  That ought to be possible!  Especially when one considers the years of the tax payer subsidy that employers have had!

Not for the first time, Labour is in a mess over Working Tax Credits.  Instinctively they oppose any welfare cut.  They just can’t help themselves.  However, they also understand that Brown’s lunacy has created both a welfare trap for people and a spending trap for successive governments.  So they find themselves in the position of opposing the reductions and yet not committing to reinstating them if they ever got back into power.  Typical Labour hypocrisy – vociferously oppose a measure while quietly hoping it goes through, so as to save yourself the bother of make the tough decision, in the future.

The SNP position?  Well of course, being socialist in nature, they too oppose it.  They are not too noisy about it though.  Maybe they are scared that some might say, if you are that bothered, why not use Holyrood’s tax raising powers and whack 3p on Income Tax, in Scotland and use the money raised to subsidise those Scots affected by the cuts. 

There is also mischief being made by the Liberal Democrats and, of course, Labour, in the House of Lords.  They are talking about amendments and opposing the government’s actions by voting against them.  At the moment the Conservatives do not have a majority in the House of Lords.  This could be quickly changed and it should be made clear to these foolish peers that this is something the Conservatives would do.  This might give those peers, pause for thought.  After all, a Conservative majority in the House of Commons, already exists, imagine how much more radical the Conservatives could be if they also had an active majority in the House of Lords!  Maybe something for the ultra-political George Osborne to consider?

These Lib Dem peers know that their proposed actions fly in the face of parliamentary convention.   The Conservative government was elected, into a majority government, on a manifesto that clearly included the prospect of welfare cuts.  Indeed, many commentators attribute the success of the Conservatives, in the election, to their economic policies and the competence demonstrated in the last five years.  The Lib Dems have long held the belief that the House of Lords needs reform, I fear that this is how that will achieve it, though I sincerely doubt this will turn-out well for them.

The UK needs these cuts to go ahead.  Not just to be able to better balance the books but more importantly to wean people off of welfare benefits.  Conservatives must hold firm and do the right thing!