Changing views on EU

They say that a week is a long time in politics, so the time I have had to reflect since my blog on May 4  - here -  http://bit.ly/15fBz73  should be ample to overcome any claims of hypocrisy.

Here goes.

Not just in the above blog but also in earlier ones, I have strongly suggested that David Cameron needs to have a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU and to have it in this parliament.  In some ways that would still be my preference but considering the politics of the matter - and the mathematics - I am coming around to seeing why that isn't possible and perhaps maybe not even desirable.  Don't worry, the Europhiles have got to me and compromised me into changing my fundamental opinion of the flawed state that is Europe.

The Lib Dems are wedded to Europe.  As a party, this is probably the only unifying policy for them.  On other issues the leadership gets pulled between leftist policies and loony leftist policies but Europe?  No, they all row in the same direction.  To be clear that is row as in a boat not as in an argument!

Labour faces the biggest dilemma over Europe and I sense that David Cameron understands this and is in fact, banking on it.   The dilemma is that many voters are opposed to continuing as a member of the EU, as it is currently constructed.  Maybe they don't all want to leave but many want the rules re-written.  UKIP and the BNP both inhabit the ground where that is most vitriolically espoused - anti-immigration.  Possibly the psephologists and focus group handlers would dispute this but I don't believe that it is only white and blue collar Tories where UKIP's policies resonate.  My life experience suggests that 'natural' Labour supporters would be as anti-immigration as these Tories sometimes appear.  One piece of evidence to mull over - in spite of the economic situation (more on that in a moment), Labour supporters didn't exactly come out in their droves to vote in the recent elections.  Nor, in the national opinion polls, can Labour get to a reasonable level of lead or votes.  Getting around 35 to 38% isn't what anyone would call a massive mandate for change!

The BBC and some other media would have it that the 'Europe question' will do for Cameron and that the Tories are split.  I am coming around to the view (and not just because the BBC is usually wrong on most things) that Europe offers an opportunity for the Tories.

The political system in the UK doesn't favour parties like UKIP.  Their local election showing of mid 20%  will most likely not be sustained in the 2015 General Election (my guess is somewhere around 7-8%) but whatever they get the first past the post system just doesn't work for them or for any small party.  UKIP will have some impact in marginal seats but I think this will equally affect all three parties with perhaps just a bit more impact on Lib Dem marginals!.

So how an opportunity?  Well, consider (and I am sure that David Cameron has), at the next election, voters would be faced with a choice between Labour and the Lib Dems - both pushing policies that say, 'we don't believe the people need to be asked about our country's future and its relations with the EU' - and the Tories saying - 'we think that the EU project needs fixing and, if it can't be fixed in a manner that we believe is acceptable, Britain should leave the EU, however, this is far too important a decision for politicians, the choice needs to be made by the people of Britain'.  I know which policy would get my vote. 

Forget anything else about this but remember this - the British have an instinctive dislike of things non-democratic.  They may not bother to vote, but just try taking away their right to vote.  The British look at the EU and see gaping holes where democracy should be representing them and instead they see elsewhere a fat and corrupt elite, lording it over them.  The European way of dealing with tyrannies and out of touch elites is often through revolution, the British way is through the ballot box. 


For the Tories then, keep Europe on the agenda, push and support the Private Member's Bill that enshrines a 2017 referendum and then push the 'we trust the people' line, time after time.  It is a very simple but no less powerful message and one which will find the Labour and Lib Dems, wanting and struggling to say why they do not trust the people.

So, keep that one bubbling away - be thankful that UKIP will also keep it on the boil - but then focus, focus, focus on the economy in a holistic way (sorry Roberto!).  Taxes, welfare education and spending.  Get these under control and keep banging on about the inherited mess.  On the latter the Tories are pushing against an open door.  Any sane person can see that the Brown-inspired and debt-funded party was unsustainable. 

Oh, and on the NHS - go for Labour.  Mid Staffs is the symptom of all that is wrong with the NHS.  Every time Andy Burnham speaks - every time - ask him why he hasn't resigned over the 1,200 deaths - every time.  Fix Labour's central mis-management as the core issue around the NHS.

Not quite a convert to Cameron's coalition but now facing in the same direction, I suppose.

And Mr Cameron, if you read this, a bit more muscular with the Lib Dems, please.  The occasional slap-down won't hurt them or you.  Finally, suggest you start to distance yourself from Obama, he is tainted by Benghazi and the IRS scandals, as will be his second term.

2012 blogging

I have just passed the 12 month anniversary of my first blog and, since we are approaching the year-end thought I would look back over the past year.  Don't worry, there will be no slow-motion clips, a la BBC Sports Personality of the Year!

First though a thank you to the more than 12,000 people who took the time to look through this.  Even if you didn't agree with what you read I appreciate your participation in the dialogue!

So...

Scotland and the independence vote was a much-written about topic for me and for those that comment on my musings/rants.  As Hogmanay looms, the people of Scotland know that they will have a vote and it will be a yes or no type of vote and in late 2014 but that's about it.  They have stories and counter-stories about whether they will remain in the EU or not and thus use the Euro or £ Sterling.  They have still heard little to nothing about how Scotland's economy and public spending will manage without the UK subsidy (making the EU membership question that much more important).  Hopefully, 2013 will bring some reasoned arguments to the debate.  I am encouraged by Alistair Darling leading the anti-independence side of the discussion.  I get the sense that he will also pick-up sympathy votes for having had to live and work with Gordon Brown for so long!

The topic that brought the most comments was the Government's plans for so called 'gay marriage'.  Many of the comments accused me of being homophobic.  I don't believe I am but I do recognize that that is the way that debate gets stifled.  Mention immigration and you are suddenly a racist BNP supporter, for example.  The Government conducted a sham public consultation exercise, where their view was already made-up and they will now push ahead with legislation and it will include certain safeguards including not allowing such 'marriages' to be conducted in Anglican churches  This is a meaningless sop to try and buy-off disgruntled and bemused Tory MPs and voters.  The government know that that part of the legislation will be challenged by homosexuals under Human Rights legislation.  Commenting on pro-homosexual  legislation that was passed in California, back in the 1970's, the comedian Bob Hope, said that he would soon have to leave that state, before they made homosexuality, compulsory.  I often wonder if that is the goal of the so called charity  Stonewall and the whole host of media that champion 'gay rights' to the detriment of the non-homosexuals in society?   The question I repeatedly posed - what does this legislation give homosexuals that they do not already have under the Civil Union act - remains unanswered.

Europe and the Euro were popular.  Time to confess that my predictions of  Greek exit from the Euro have been premature though I do believe that the whole project is still very precariously balanced and in jeopardy.  The big question though, is will David Cameron recognize the need for getting off of the fence and offering the electorate a clear In/Out vote on continued membership of the EU?  If he doesn't and Labour beats him to the punch then those people who have defected to UKIP can be counted on staying away from the Tories in 2015.

Then there is the UK political scene and particularly the pussy-footing way that the Tories deal with their supposedly junior coalition partner.  From dithering on Europe to pandering on 'gay marriage' to sparing the knife on public spending cuts, the Tories have bowed and scraped to the Lib Dems , time after time.   Taxes still remain high - Income, VAT, National Insurance and the phoney Green Taxes - and so does Public Spending - welfare payments still make low paid work uneconomic to take-up and many middle class receive tax credits and other stipends back from the State,  that they have just paid over in taxes!  And then there is the poor management of news!  The March Budget became focused on pasties and grannies just at a time when we needed the hard questions to be addressed.  It seems that can-kicking is not only done by the Left!

If you ignore rank hypocrisy and pure political opportunism (just for the sake of politicking) then Labour has had not too bad a year.  They were aided by the ineptitude of the Tories (see budget above) but Ed Miliband has come into his own this year.  He still grates when he talks and then there is what he says but, he has done better than I expected.  Fortunately, the other Ed, Balls that is, has had a bad year.  One senses that his heart isn't in it anymore.

I don't want to get on to Leveson as that comes back to Tory stupidity - we have a problem with the press, let's appoint a judge and commission a report for some time in the future!  Why would we expect anything less than a restrictive response from a British judge?  At the end of the day, judges, like politicians, think they know better than us, what is best for us!  Think not?  Think of how many times you have heard of a ruling and thought - No way, that's just crazy (Abu Qatada ring any bells??)

So to close out - I wish you and yours a blessed Christmas and hope that 2013 brings health and happiness to you.