Sunday, May 13, 2012

Greece and Spain - Opportunity or risk?

How do you feel about Greece maybe exiting the Euro?  Are you relaxed about the implications for the economy of the EU and maybe the World?

What about Spain?  While exit from the Euro may be a little further away (or did I speak too soon!!) broadly the same economic conditions prevail and, like Greece, can austerity piled upon austerity work here?

Note also how the spotlight has moved from Greece to Spain and Ireland and Portugal have, for the time being, been skipped over.  I think though that they will come back to haunt the Euro and EU, again.

I guess I am conflicted about the whole thing. 

Part of  me expects that the Euro must collapse under the weight of its inherent contradictions and I would look forward to that as it would, I believe, lead to a much required re-evaluation of the whole EU project and may, just may, give the people of Europe a say in what they want.  I do not believe that anyone who knows anything about Europe and the EU, can say that the current set-up has any democratic legitimacy.

On the other hand, I worry about what would be the knock-on consequences of a major default or banks collapsing, in Spain.  I think that Greece is essentially 'priced in' for the financial markets (even if the non-austerity parties eventually form a coalition).

Spain though is another and much bigger 'kettle of fish'.  The ripples from a banking sector collapse, in Spain will have much more impact and France will not be unaffected, by any means.  Latin America will also not escape unscathed, is my belief.

So what a choice -

Hope that people can accept that 'living within your means' (that is what austerity really means!) and will undertake the hardships to travel that journey

or

Hope that the weaknesses of the Euro project lead to its demise and a complete re-assessment of the EU - its purpose and its legislative reach and equally importantly, its lack of democratic accountability.

Any thoughts?

No comments:

Post a Comment