No doubt the psephologists and political pundits will study the entrails of the English local elections and produce all sorts of weird and wonderful (and naturally, unbiased!) analysis and commentary on these but here is my take.
May as well get the Lib Dems out of the way first, which I think is something that could well happen or largely happen at the next general election. For them a very bad night. They lost 124 seats or mare than 25% of those they were defending. Being a member of the Coalition they could have expected some punishment but they are supposed to be strong in local government. It is at these 'grass roots' levels that they have built and nurtured their base and on the back of this, their move to Westminster. That foundation was badly damaged on May 2nd. Maybe irreparably. Their will no doubt be talk of a Conservative leadership challenge, need for a change, etc., but I think the more likely one to be challenged is Nick Clegg. Though I think this is just a slim chance as they really are stuck with the Coalition, for now.
Labour? Didn't see much 'One Nation Labour', did you? They have been 'banging on' about cuts and austerity and it isn't working etc., for the last three years. The economy has bumped along going nowhere and yet, for all of these factors which should, if their narrative is to be believed, have delivered a resounding 'kicking' for the Conservatives, it clearly didn't. Labour gained 291 seats. From a low base they doubled their representation but .......... I think that the Labour message of 'we need to borrow more' and 'spend more' just doesn't resonate with the electorate. When all is said and done, people know that the party is over and that now the bills need to be paid. They know that continuously living on credit, just gets you deeper into trouble and stores up debt for them and their kids and grand-kids and great-grand-kids, etc..
For Labour the message seems to be, we don't buy your economic twaddle - your numbers don't add-up, you fooled us once (three times actually but who's counting) and on the economy, we don't trust you.
I used to say to my children, the answer is no, what was the question you were going to ask? For Labour, the answer is always, we need to spend more tax payer money, what is the issue?'
So to the 'elephant in the room' - UKIP. A very good night for them, both in terms of seats gained +139 and share of the vote 23%. We know that this won't translate to a quarter of Westminster seats but this must cause the other parties to sit-up and take notice. From what I can gather, UKIP's success was founded on the EU and, allied with that, immigration. The latter principally from EU countries. If UKIP are to grow, they must now lay out a fuller policy platform tackling more than just these two issues. What are their views/policies on the economy, on crime, etc. They may have policies on a whole range of issues but these have not been articulated. Likewise, they need to develop the 'team'. Nigel Farage is a powerful leader. He brings a refreshing honesty (or so it seems) to the debate but, there really needs to be more people speaking for UKIP than just Farage. And no, that wasn't a job application. For me, with UKIP the overall package presents anti-libertarian views I could never support.
For David Cameron and the Conservatives, the danger of these results might just lie in complacency. They actually weren't that bad! OK so many good councillors and servants of the people, lost their seats and Labour gained control of 2 councils, from the Tories and the Conservatives lost control of a further 8 to 'no overall control' but it could have been a lot worse.
The UKIP danger is there for the Tories but so is the solution in place.
Cameron has promised a referendum on Europe. However, only in the next parliament. This needs to be brought forward so that either the referendum occurs during this parliament - how about on the same day as the next general election - May 2015? - or the legislation needs to be passed, in this parliament, committing to a referendum no later than May 2016.
On immigration too, the Conservatives have made in-roads but they need to tackle this, from the 'other end'. The problem isn't really immigration. Why do EU citizens come to the UK to work? Because there is work available. Why is work available? Because timidity on welfare reform means that it still pays to not work. I don't like the idea of further immigration restrictions and believe that the 'demand' side of the equation, is the one that should be addressed.
One way for Cameron to flex his muscles and take some of the wind out of UKIP's sails is to deal with Abu Qatada. Simply deport him to Jordan. Pay no heed to the ECHR, the Immigration Appeals courts - just put him on a plane and live with the consequences. Last time I checked, SIAC was a UK agency! Also, the ECHR doesn't have any tanks or jets that they can send to punish us. Justify the decision by saying what all right thinking people know - enough is enough, this has dragged on far too long and the UK has been taken for a fool, but no longer.
The final message for Cameron and co.? It's the economy stupid!! Why alienate natural supporters pursuing the media or marriage for homosexuals. Focus on what the Conservatives are best at - economic management and law and order.
Oh! and time for a reshuffle. Ken Clarke has to go! Replace with David Davis, would be my suggestion - think of the message that would send.
May as well get the Lib Dems out of the way first, which I think is something that could well happen or largely happen at the next general election. For them a very bad night. They lost 124 seats or mare than 25% of those they were defending. Being a member of the Coalition they could have expected some punishment but they are supposed to be strong in local government. It is at these 'grass roots' levels that they have built and nurtured their base and on the back of this, their move to Westminster. That foundation was badly damaged on May 2nd. Maybe irreparably. Their will no doubt be talk of a Conservative leadership challenge, need for a change, etc., but I think the more likely one to be challenged is Nick Clegg. Though I think this is just a slim chance as they really are stuck with the Coalition, for now.
Labour? Didn't see much 'One Nation Labour', did you? They have been 'banging on' about cuts and austerity and it isn't working etc., for the last three years. The economy has bumped along going nowhere and yet, for all of these factors which should, if their narrative is to be believed, have delivered a resounding 'kicking' for the Conservatives, it clearly didn't. Labour gained 291 seats. From a low base they doubled their representation but .......... I think that the Labour message of 'we need to borrow more' and 'spend more' just doesn't resonate with the electorate. When all is said and done, people know that the party is over and that now the bills need to be paid. They know that continuously living on credit, just gets you deeper into trouble and stores up debt for them and their kids and grand-kids and great-grand-kids, etc..
For Labour the message seems to be, we don't buy your economic twaddle - your numbers don't add-up, you fooled us once (three times actually but who's counting) and on the economy, we don't trust you.
I used to say to my children, the answer is no, what was the question you were going to ask? For Labour, the answer is always, we need to spend more tax payer money, what is the issue?'
So to the 'elephant in the room' - UKIP. A very good night for them, both in terms of seats gained +139 and share of the vote 23%. We know that this won't translate to a quarter of Westminster seats but this must cause the other parties to sit-up and take notice. From what I can gather, UKIP's success was founded on the EU and, allied with that, immigration. The latter principally from EU countries. If UKIP are to grow, they must now lay out a fuller policy platform tackling more than just these two issues. What are their views/policies on the economy, on crime, etc. They may have policies on a whole range of issues but these have not been articulated. Likewise, they need to develop the 'team'. Nigel Farage is a powerful leader. He brings a refreshing honesty (or so it seems) to the debate but, there really needs to be more people speaking for UKIP than just Farage. And no, that wasn't a job application. For me, with UKIP the overall package presents anti-libertarian views I could never support.
For David Cameron and the Conservatives, the danger of these results might just lie in complacency. They actually weren't that bad! OK so many good councillors and servants of the people, lost their seats and Labour gained control of 2 councils, from the Tories and the Conservatives lost control of a further 8 to 'no overall control' but it could have been a lot worse.
The UKIP danger is there for the Tories but so is the solution in place.
Cameron has promised a referendum on Europe. However, only in the next parliament. This needs to be brought forward so that either the referendum occurs during this parliament - how about on the same day as the next general election - May 2015? - or the legislation needs to be passed, in this parliament, committing to a referendum no later than May 2016.
On immigration too, the Conservatives have made in-roads but they need to tackle this, from the 'other end'. The problem isn't really immigration. Why do EU citizens come to the UK to work? Because there is work available. Why is work available? Because timidity on welfare reform means that it still pays to not work. I don't like the idea of further immigration restrictions and believe that the 'demand' side of the equation, is the one that should be addressed.
One way for Cameron to flex his muscles and take some of the wind out of UKIP's sails is to deal with Abu Qatada. Simply deport him to Jordan. Pay no heed to the ECHR, the Immigration Appeals courts - just put him on a plane and live with the consequences. Last time I checked, SIAC was a UK agency! Also, the ECHR doesn't have any tanks or jets that they can send to punish us. Justify the decision by saying what all right thinking people know - enough is enough, this has dragged on far too long and the UK has been taken for a fool, but no longer.
The final message for Cameron and co.? It's the economy stupid!! Why alienate natural supporters pursuing the media or marriage for homosexuals. Focus on what the Conservatives are best at - economic management and law and order.
Oh! and time for a reshuffle. Ken Clarke has to go! Replace with David Davis, would be my suggestion - think of the message that would send.
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