Friday, May 16, 2014

What is Scotland worth?

I ask this question because it seems to me that the Scottish Nationalist argument all boils down to money.  'It's Scotland's oil' they scream and then prattle on about how Scotland's economy will flourish after they gain independence. 

On the revenue side, Scotland will gain complete access to oil revenues however, all indications on the cost side indicate that Scotland will be close to, or in deficit due to current and future expenditure plans.  Scotland is sitting on a demographic time-bomb relative to an aging pension-requiring population.   For argument's sake, let's say the economic picture is neutral - maybe positive in the short to medium term and moving to negative in the longer term as oil and gas production declines and welfare costs continue to climb.

If you listen to some SNP supporters, you will be told that Scotland was 'sold' to the English for £400,000 (£40 million in today's money).  That amount is the debt that Scotland's then ruling elite faced, because of their failed Darien Scheme, back at the turn of the 18th century.  The argument is that this debt forced Scotland to go 'cap in hand' to the English and union was the price that England demanded. 

So is that what Scotland is 'worth'?  I would strongly say no. 

However, I measure Scotland's worth not in monetary terms but in what the Scottish people, in union with those of England Wales and Ireland, have achieved, together, over the years. 

Created the largest empire that the world has ever seen and brought democracy and legal systems that continue to be used for the benefit of great swathes of mankind.  Topically, consider India just now holding parliamentary elections using the British-inspired democratic model.  We Brits did that! Together!  Contrast that with other countries where power is obtained by the gun and maintained by the gun and by fear! 

Some, including myself, have harped on about government spending and have used that as a measure of Scotland's 'worth'.  The argument is that Scotland receives a higher per capita share of government spending than does England and so relies on English money/largess.  Factually that is so but that doesn't mean that Scotland is somehow 'worth' less than other parts of the United Kingdom!  Statistics show that in 2009, Scotland had a Gross Value Added/per capita result of £19,744.  This compared with £20,442 for England.  However, The North East of England results shows £15,621 but no one suggests that the 'geordies' are somehow not British or should have independence or are 'worth' any less than any other Briton!  Given some of the well-documented social deprivation in the North East and above average levels of unemployment, the per capita spend there is likely higher than in other parts of England and indeed, maybe also Scotland but there is no clamour for Free Newcastle - Free Newcastle Brown Ale, maybe- but no shouts for an independent GeordieLand.

What has prompted my questions on the 'worth' of Scotland is that there seems to be far too few non-Scots and UK MPs speaking on the issue of the independence referendum.  I said here ( http://bit.ly/1kaSHzb) that the United Kingdom seems to have no Plan B if the Scots do vote for independence, but equally I am saddened by the lack of passion coming from Westminster politicians.  They should be making speeches extolling the virtues of the Union and daily banging on about the risks that an independent Scotland face:

Risks like uncertainty over its currency - can't be the pound, might have to be the Euro.

Risks like the very clear steer from the EU, that a newly independent Scotland would have to apply for membership of the EU - membership that would require border controls with England (because Scotland would not have the Schengen opt-outs that the UK enjoys). 

Risks like Scotland having to adopt the Euro as its currency - risks that, if the Scottish Nationalists are right about the strength of an independent Scotland's economy, then that means Scotland contributing to the bail-out of the next Euro-crisis victim (there will be more!).

David Cameron is currently in Scotland and making speeches in favour of a No vote but when I hear him speak, I don't hear any passion.  The deafening silence from Labour's Ed Miliband and the Lib Dems, Nick Clegg is especially concerning, given that Scotland provides a large number of UK parliamentary MPs for those parties.

So my message today, is to all those concerned for the Union, SPEAK UP!  Get on social media and show your pride in being British , whether you are Scottish, English, Welsh or Irish.  Tell the world how Great is Britain and what we, as a united nation have contributed to the world. For example, how a Scot, Sir Alexander Fleming, discovered penicillin, while working in England.  How the Brits brought democracy to the world!  The Greeks only 'invented' the word!


 

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