Thursday, July 2, 2015

Greece must say Oxhi (No)

On Sunday, Greek voters go to the poll to decide on the referendum about so-called new bail-out terms.

The question on which they are voting is quite convoluted however, the response needs to be No!  The more resounding,the better.

Why No?  Well the answer, in part,  would be why would anyone vote yes?  A Yes vote would mean more austerity being piled upon the Greek people.  Regular readers will know that I am a strong proponent of so called austerity programmes in the UK and US and my views haven't changed but what is proposed for Greece isn't really about that country 'living within its means'.

The whole Greek bail-out situation is about keeping the Euro intact and avoiding European governments and banks from having to write-down the value of loans they have made to Greece.  What has been offered to Greece are loans which are then used, not for the benefit of the Greek people or Greece's economy but to repay interest and falling-due loans to the people that have just made the loan.  This does meethen, zero, nada, zip, for the Greeks but means that those European institutions and banks can claim that the loans are still 'performing' and so no write-off is required.

These banks and such, simply cannot afford to cover the cost of their reckless lending  - and yes, I accept that the Greeks borrowed recklessly - but it is the banks and their shareholders that must now pay the price.

Greece has enacted some reforms, maybe not enough, however the creditors know that further and deeper reforms are becoming counter-productive.

The creditors have focused on Greece's (previously) generous pension arrangements.  People used to be able to retire as early as 50 years of age.  This is now being increased to 67-  the European standard of mid to late 60 years of age,   The propaganda/spin from the creditors is that Greek pensions are so generous and they represent a higher than normal percentage of the Greek GDP.  That was true.  That will become even more true as the rest of Greek economy contracts.   Sometimes I wonder if that is the 'plan' - to have Greece only populated by pensioners and then the creditors can point to the over-generous Greek pensions which then occupy +50% of GDP or whatever!

Greece unemployment is around 25%, and among young people is over 50%.  The austerity proposed does nothing, meethen, zero, nada, zip to stimulate the economy, so this condition will continue.

The proposals, upon which the Greeks will vote are all about paying the creditors.  Don't be deluded by the talk of European solidarity.  There isn't any!  It is every banker for himself!

The Germans have a word - schadenfreude - which kind of captures how the rich Northern Europeans view the situation.  These people look at Greece and Greeks and say 'You are getting what you deserve!  You have had it so easy on the backs of us hard-working Germans, Dutch, etc., with all that early retirement, etc. and now you, the Greeks must pay the price.'  Definitely not communitaire as the European federalists always talk about.

Truth is though, that the German economy has benefited from Greece's participation in the Euro (and that of the other weaker economies of Italy and Spain).   The participation of these countries has depressed the global value of the Euro and this has served to make the exports of a strong economy, like Germany, artificially cheaper on World markets.

The creditors are impoverishing a whole nation rather than face up to their responsibilities.  This is to their shame but also to the shame of their regulators who, for the sake of their own national economies, which would be affected by loan write-offs, have closed their eyes and rule books to these banks.


These creditor nations and organizations are clearly seeking to blackmail and threaten the Greek people.  They are aided by the media who keep pushing the line that many Greeks are going to vote Yes - yes to more unemployment, yes to more poverty, yes to hunger.  It is time for the Greek people to get up off of their knees and say Oxhi, the Greek word for No!  If a Greek person is wondering about voting yes, ask them these questions.  How does a Yes vote help Greece?  How does a Yes vote re-start the Greek economy? How does a yes vote put bread on the tables of Greek's starving people? How does a yes vote stop the mass immigration of Greek youth who are forced to emigrate in order to survive?

A yes vote is a vote to kick the can down the road.  Greeks should say Arketa - Enough!

I should declare an interest in all this.  As a Brit, a No vote would have less of an impact on my country than it would for Germany, for example.  Greek debt to Germany is 93 Billion Euros, while to Britain the amount is just 9.2 Billion Euro.

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