It is clear that we are moving towards a change in approach to the Syrian civil war.
Putin's Russia has always been clear that he supports the regime of President Assad. We can sense though, that some European leaders are also moving in that direction. The problem for the Europeans is that they have been very publicly strident in their condemnation of Assad. They have repeatedly said, that Assad must go and they wouldn't talk to him.
Finally, however, these leaders are recognising that Assad has to play a part in the process. This dawning of reality, however odious it might seem (and do listen out for the knee-jerk shrieks of horror from the liberal media), also finally moves the focus very strongly onto how to eliminate Daesh (ISIS).
Russia is calling for coordination of the military effort and, if only to avoid a potential clash between East and West forces, this really has to happen. France has now commenced air operations against Daesh, in Syria - having earlier said that such actions would be illegal! Seems like President Hollande is putting socialist rhetoric behind realpolitik in the pecking order. UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, is expected to bring a motion before parliament, within the coming weeks, seeking parliamentary approval for the UK to join in the bombing of Daesh targets in Syria. If Germany can pull itself away from the silly Volkswagen matter, then they too might participate.
This coalescing towards a coordinated and focused attack on Daesh can have a number of positive effects.
Firstly, this should allow for the creation of a series of safe zones within Syria, protected by the air power available.
Secondly, this will then provide a reason to halt the flood of migrants that have been leaving Syria. For this, real assistance, rather than just score settling with Turkish Kurds, will be need to be demanded from Turkey. Demanded because Turkey has, throughout the whole sorry story, served only its own interests. Indeed, it is clear that Turkey, led by the strongly Islamic Erdogan, has allowed for a significant destabilisation of its neighbours and the EU.
Thirdly, this will take the fight to Daesh. It is clear that the Syrians do not have the capability to eliminate them. It is equally clear that the Iraqi army does not have the stomach for a fight against Daesh. They have very little to no support amongst Sunni Iraqis. Their Shia militias are simply lawless and, not too different from Daesh in how they subjugate the areas they occupy. Their Iranian allies, seem more interested in colonizing the south of Iraq than in taking on Daesh. The Kurdish Peshmerga can, and do, hold the line against Daesh but they are poorly armed and, due to Turkish, Iraqi and Iranian pressure, the West have produced very feeble support and materiel, so the Peshmerga are being under-used.
The issue of who succeeds Assad needn't concern us, at this point. He is very weakened and whatever the outcome, cannot survive in the medium term. This does not mean that Syria, free of Daesh, will become a democracy post-Assad. One has to question whether or not, the imposition of Western style democracy is suited for some countries, including Syria. The Syrian civil war was a direct outcome of the so called Arab Spring. This 'flowering' of people power has led to absolute chaos in Libya, an effective military dictatorship in Egypt (no realm change there!) and a loosening of control in Tunisia, following the ousting of long-term President Ben Ali, such that Islamic terror can stalk their tourist resorts, killing at will.
So change is coming to the Syria conflict and this will create some strange bed-fellows but the West, if Obama and Kerry's naivete can be sidelined, has an opportunity to eliminate Daesh and then to eliminate Al Qaeda in Syria (though doing the latter might just create a vacuum for Hezbollah to fill). Now therefore, is the time for Cameron and Hollande to show backbone and stand-up to this lame-duck US President and his court-jester Secretary of State. Who knows, they might even get some trade-off, from Russia, relative to Ukraine.
Putin's Russia has always been clear that he supports the regime of President Assad. We can sense though, that some European leaders are also moving in that direction. The problem for the Europeans is that they have been very publicly strident in their condemnation of Assad. They have repeatedly said, that Assad must go and they wouldn't talk to him.
Finally, however, these leaders are recognising that Assad has to play a part in the process. This dawning of reality, however odious it might seem (and do listen out for the knee-jerk shrieks of horror from the liberal media), also finally moves the focus very strongly onto how to eliminate Daesh (ISIS).
Russia is calling for coordination of the military effort and, if only to avoid a potential clash between East and West forces, this really has to happen. France has now commenced air operations against Daesh, in Syria - having earlier said that such actions would be illegal! Seems like President Hollande is putting socialist rhetoric behind realpolitik in the pecking order. UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, is expected to bring a motion before parliament, within the coming weeks, seeking parliamentary approval for the UK to join in the bombing of Daesh targets in Syria. If Germany can pull itself away from the silly Volkswagen matter, then they too might participate.
This coalescing towards a coordinated and focused attack on Daesh can have a number of positive effects.
Firstly, this should allow for the creation of a series of safe zones within Syria, protected by the air power available.
Secondly, this will then provide a reason to halt the flood of migrants that have been leaving Syria. For this, real assistance, rather than just score settling with Turkish Kurds, will be need to be demanded from Turkey. Demanded because Turkey has, throughout the whole sorry story, served only its own interests. Indeed, it is clear that Turkey, led by the strongly Islamic Erdogan, has allowed for a significant destabilisation of its neighbours and the EU.
Thirdly, this will take the fight to Daesh. It is clear that the Syrians do not have the capability to eliminate them. It is equally clear that the Iraqi army does not have the stomach for a fight against Daesh. They have very little to no support amongst Sunni Iraqis. Their Shia militias are simply lawless and, not too different from Daesh in how they subjugate the areas they occupy. Their Iranian allies, seem more interested in colonizing the south of Iraq than in taking on Daesh. The Kurdish Peshmerga can, and do, hold the line against Daesh but they are poorly armed and, due to Turkish, Iraqi and Iranian pressure, the West have produced very feeble support and materiel, so the Peshmerga are being under-used.
The issue of who succeeds Assad needn't concern us, at this point. He is very weakened and whatever the outcome, cannot survive in the medium term. This does not mean that Syria, free of Daesh, will become a democracy post-Assad. One has to question whether or not, the imposition of Western style democracy is suited for some countries, including Syria. The Syrian civil war was a direct outcome of the so called Arab Spring. This 'flowering' of people power has led to absolute chaos in Libya, an effective military dictatorship in Egypt (no realm change there!) and a loosening of control in Tunisia, following the ousting of long-term President Ben Ali, such that Islamic terror can stalk their tourist resorts, killing at will.
So change is coming to the Syria conflict and this will create some strange bed-fellows but the West, if Obama and Kerry's naivete can be sidelined, has an opportunity to eliminate Daesh and then to eliminate Al Qaeda in Syria (though doing the latter might just create a vacuum for Hezbollah to fill). Now therefore, is the time for Cameron and Hollande to show backbone and stand-up to this lame-duck US President and his court-jester Secretary of State. Who knows, they might even get some trade-off, from Russia, relative to Ukraine.
No comments:
Post a Comment