Hammond's chance

Assuming he is not replaced, UK Chancellor, Philip Hammond, is shortly to present his Budget, outlining spending and taxation plans.  This will be the first time we have the budget in the Autumn.

There has been conflicting talk of loosening the reins and then of tax rises. 

First, let us  be clear, we have not really experienced so called austerity.  That is just a lie put about by Labour and its fellow travellers in the media and the self-interested ‘grievance industry’. 

So, spending must be cut and cut significantly.

The minor spending reductions that we have seen since 2010 have had some effect on reducing the deficit but zero effect on National Debt.  This continues to climb.  Not surprising really – we are now borrowing money to give away in foreign aid – of course, this is madness but what could we expect from Red Tory Chancellor Osborne and ‘virtue signalling’ call me Dave Cameron?

I outlined, last November  the spending cuts that could be made.  These were the work of the Tax Payers Alliance (a worthy champion of taxpayers and very deserving of your support)  These are shown  here  (http://bit.ly/2eqGP2y).  The effects of some will take time to filter through but stopping HS2 must be an immediate action.  Spending £50, 60, 70 or 80 billion so as to save 20 minutes on a trip to Birmingham, is simply madness. 

In the post-Brexit world, Britain needs to increase its attractiveness for business.  This means lower Corporation taxes and lower personal taxation.  We need to become a low tax low spend economy.  Yes I have no doubt this will upset the other EU countries but that is tough!  We will once again be an independent sovereign nation and can do what we want.  Probably, such an approach might influence the Brexit talks – so be it.  We are a free nation and that freedom includes the ability to simply walk away from the talks if Barnier and company seek to hobble our ability to run our country as we see fi

The UK, for the benefit of future generations – your children and grandchildren – needs to urgently reduce public spending.  At the same time, we need a simplification of the UK tax code.  I would contend that one of the major contributors to the industry that has sprung-up around tax avoidance, is the current complexity of tax law.  Indeed, I would suggest that there are parts of it that no one really understands!

In addition to the cuts proposed by the Tax Payers Alliance, I offer the following:

Public Sector Pay

The 1% pay cap should be maintained, however, in the NHS Jeremy Hunt should be encouraged to take more direct control over hospital trusts.  Trusts should immediately undertake a complete review of all of their middle management positions.  That is, not doctors, nurses or direct support staff but those other roles that hold the NHS up for ridicule.  Posts such as Diversity Directors or Assistant Diversity Directors or Equality Directors or Nursing Management coordinators etc.  Any role, yes any, that is not involved in the direct hands-on care of patients or in the day-to-day support of them (porters, cleaners, catering staff etc.) should be terminated.  The funds ‘freed-up’ can then be used to fund increases for nursing and/or extra nurses.  An Assistant Director of Diversity can easily command a salary of £45,000.  Add in around a minimum  20% for other costs and you could have £54,000 to distribute – do three or four of those and all front-line nurses in a given NHS Hospital Trust, could have a flat £1,000 increase.   No extra cost to the taxpayer, increased efficiency for the NHS and happier, better remunerated staff – simples!

Talking of simples – end the translation farce which costs the NHS £millions each year.  Signs and pamphlets shouldn’t need to be translated into 12 or 14 different languages.  English is the language of NHS England and that’s it.  I know, you’ll say that’s racist and such but think about how many commercial, private sector businesses put up menus and price lists in 12 different languages.

Public Sector Salaries

In addition to the current 1% cap, set a ceiling on public sector salaries.  The level should be £140,000.  No public sector employee, none, should be earning more than the Prime Minister. May and Hammond should ignore all of the usual ‘pay the best to attract the best‘ clap-trap from self-interested civil servants and town hall employees. At just under 6 times the national average wage £140,000 would still give the country a wide range of candidates.  There is a strong feeling that many of the current crop of public servants would have a very hard time commanding salaries of 50% of their current level, outside of the cossetted public sector.

Pensions

Time to ‘bite the bullet’.  Yes people are living longer and other such arguments matter but fundamentally, we cannot afford the current provision.  So, from 2037, increase the current pension age from 66 to 67.  Then from 2040 increase it to 70.  This will give people plenty of time to plan for the change – some will and some won’t but none can say that they didn’t have time and so on.

Also on pensions, remove the ‘triple lock’.  Pension increases should be linked to an agreed and then non-changeable, version of the Retail or Consumer Prices Index.  That’s it.  State Pension income shouldn’t be allowed to accelerate ahead of other incomes.

Finally on this subject, end so called Final Salary schemes for Public Sector workers or rather, end all new entrants.  We must honour commitments made to existing staff, even if those commitments are over-generous but we don’t need to keep digging ourselves ever-deeper into an unfunded pensions hole.

This is what a Conservative Chancellor should be proposing – cuts to expenditure, cuts to the deficit and cuts to National Debt and of course, to promote growth and invectives, cuts to taxation.

Don’t think it will happen though.  Hammond will be timid (maybe he would be less so if he focused on the economy and kept his nose out of the Brexit talks) and he will show his Red Tory credentials by punishing core Tory voters and rewarding the various special interest groups who make the most noise.

Shame really but that’s the likely outcome.

News November 9

Comment on today's news.

Corbyn and the Armed Services
Jeremy Corbyn is upset that the Chief of Military Staff has entered into 'politics' by saying that the Uk bombing Daesh in Iraq but not tracking back and bombing them in Syria is foolish and lacking in sense.  Also that having a Prime Minister who has very publicly stated he won't push the UK's nuclear button under any circumstances, is dangerous (as well, in my view as just plain silly).

Corbyn's right that the military shouldn't be involved in politics we can see the negative side of that in the flawed elections in Burma.  However, who better to provide a reasonably impartial viewpoint on the situation in Syria and Iraq, than a non-politician.  We all know how politicians trim their sails and are more interested in soundbites than hard facts.  I have a little more faith in the people that take the decisions to send our service personnel into harms way than in flip-flopping politicians.

It would, of course, been better if the comments had been made by other politicians.  Not just Conservatives but also those in the Labour Party who still believe that the UK has the moral right to defend itself.

Burma elections
Not really sure how to consider these.  On the one hand, the Burmese people have an opportunity to exercise their democratic right but just how democratic is that right?  Nobel Peace Prize winner, Aung San Suu Kyi, cannot be elected as President (this election will come, early next year)  because she has foreign born sons!  The military has a constitutionally-guaranteed 25% of the seats in parliament.  To amend the constitution, a constitution that was written by the military, requires a 75% or more majority!  Hundreds of thousands of the minority Rohingya muslims have been denied the right to vote.    So, a step in the right direction but still quite a way to go.

Osborne agrees 30% spending cuts with four government departments.
Before you jump-up and shout 'about time', consider that these cuts are over the next four years.

The departments are, transport, local government, environment and Osborne's own treasury.  So not the big spenders like health and welfare or the already over-cut defence department.

Apparently, these cuts will be in the order of 8% a year for each of the next four years.   I have written here before that departmental budgets need to be subjected to cuts of 15% a year and the complete closure of the environment department.  My opinion hasn't changed but given the worsening global economic situation, I am not sure that 15% cuts would be enough!

When you hear the Conservatives crowing about deficit cutting and Labour and the SNP's howling about austerity, bear in mind that all that is potentially happening, is that the UK is trying to start to live within its means.  The massive debt mountain £1.5 trillion still sits above the UK economy and acts as a huge burden on future generations.  I would advise large pinches of salt to be taken but am not sure what is the latest health scare news position.

Remembrance Sunday One
Caught-up with some of this on TV news.  It wasn't widely commemorated, as far as I could ascertain, in Erbil, Kurdistan.

We should be heartened that so many young people seem to have managed to throw off the PC teaching of the education system and recognise the contribution and sacrifice made by so many of our fellow-countrymen and our allies.

While the young continue to show respect to these heroes, we have hope!

Remembrance Sunday Two
That man Corbyn again!

Would it really have hurt him so much, to bow his head, when laying his poppy wreath?  A barely perceptible nod in the direction of the Cenotaph, simply isn't good enough.  Yet another sign of his dislike of Britain and the British.

I know I shouldn't be surprised by the actions of an active supporter of the murderous IRA but surely there is at least one grown-up remaining, at the Labour Party?
    
Refugees
Have you noticed that this issue is sliding down the news programmes?  With the onset of bad weather in the region (Erbil is currently experiencing quite severe winds and rains), we might see a halting or at least a serious curtailment, of the numbers of people crossing the Mediterranean.

Maybe these people will now look to what is on their own doorsteps?  Given that Summer suns will be replaced by Winter cold, rain and snow maybe these 'refugees' will head towards Saudi Arabia and seek asylum or at least refuge in the massive tent city that is sitting at Mecca.

We can but hope.

Clearly, the appetite in Europe, where it was previously positive, has fast turned against the swarm of people that are invading.  Who knows, given Angela Merkel's support for a completely open door policy, is now being rapidly rowed back from, Merkel's own position is said to be in jeopardy.  Merkel losing her job?  We can but hope.

 

Greece must say Oxhi (No)

On Sunday, Greek voters go to the poll to decide on the referendum about so-called new bail-out terms.

The question on which they are voting is quite convoluted however, the response needs to be No!  The more resounding,the better.

Why No?  Well the answer, in part,  would be why would anyone vote yes?  A Yes vote would mean more austerity being piled upon the Greek people.  Regular readers will know that I am a strong proponent of so called austerity programmes in the UK and US and my views haven't changed but what is proposed for Greece isn't really about that country 'living within its means'.

The whole Greek bail-out situation is about keeping the Euro intact and avoiding European governments and banks from having to write-down the value of loans they have made to Greece.  What has been offered to Greece are loans which are then used, not for the benefit of the Greek people or Greece's economy but to repay interest and falling-due loans to the people that have just made the loan.  This does meethen, zero, nada, zip, for the Greeks but means that those European institutions and banks can claim that the loans are still 'performing' and so no write-off is required.

These banks and such, simply cannot afford to cover the cost of their reckless lending  - and yes, I accept that the Greeks borrowed recklessly - but it is the banks and their shareholders that must now pay the price.

Greece has enacted some reforms, maybe not enough, however the creditors know that further and deeper reforms are becoming counter-productive.

The creditors have focused on Greece's (previously) generous pension arrangements.  People used to be able to retire as early as 50 years of age.  This is now being increased to 67-  the European standard of mid to late 60 years of age,   The propaganda/spin from the creditors is that Greek pensions are so generous and they represent a higher than normal percentage of the Greek GDP.  That was true.  That will become even more true as the rest of Greek economy contracts.   Sometimes I wonder if that is the 'plan' - to have Greece only populated by pensioners and then the creditors can point to the over-generous Greek pensions which then occupy +50% of GDP or whatever!

Greece unemployment is around 25%, and among young people is over 50%.  The austerity proposed does nothing, meethen, zero, nada, zip to stimulate the economy, so this condition will continue.

The proposals, upon which the Greeks will vote are all about paying the creditors.  Don't be deluded by the talk of European solidarity.  There isn't any!  It is every banker for himself!

The Germans have a word - schadenfreude - which kind of captures how the rich Northern Europeans view the situation.  These people look at Greece and Greeks and say 'You are getting what you deserve!  You have had it so easy on the backs of us hard-working Germans, Dutch, etc., with all that early retirement, etc. and now you, the Greeks must pay the price.'  Definitely not communitaire as the European federalists always talk about.

Truth is though, that the German economy has benefited from Greece's participation in the Euro (and that of the other weaker economies of Italy and Spain).   The participation of these countries has depressed the global value of the Euro and this has served to make the exports of a strong economy, like Germany, artificially cheaper on World markets.

The creditors are impoverishing a whole nation rather than face up to their responsibilities.  This is to their shame but also to the shame of their regulators who, for the sake of their own national economies, which would be affected by loan write-offs, have closed their eyes and rule books to these banks.


These creditor nations and organizations are clearly seeking to blackmail and threaten the Greek people.  They are aided by the media who keep pushing the line that many Greeks are going to vote Yes - yes to more unemployment, yes to more poverty, yes to hunger.  It is time for the Greek people to get up off of their knees and say Oxhi, the Greek word for No!  If a Greek person is wondering about voting yes, ask them these questions.  How does a Yes vote help Greece?  How does a Yes vote re-start the Greek economy? How does a yes vote put bread on the tables of Greek's starving people? How does a yes vote stop the mass immigration of Greek youth who are forced to emigrate in order to survive?

A yes vote is a vote to kick the can down the road.  Greeks should say Arketa - Enough!

I should declare an interest in all this.  As a Brit, a No vote would have less of an impact on my country than it would for Germany, for example.  Greek debt to Germany is 93 Billion Euros, while to Britain the amount is just 9.2 Billion Euro.

GE 2015 - Part One

This is turning out to be a funny old General Election!  I will put some of my observations here and maybe some will resonate.

The opinion polls have so far been stubbornly almost static.  What small movement they show for a party's support, tends to be contradicted by the next poll.  No UK-wide party is demonstrating a clear and commanding poll lead.  Labour and the Conservatives are stuck around the 32-34% mark.

In themselves, these results are surprising.  Given the improving health of the economy, especially considering the almost Greece-like basket case that the Conservatives inherited, the Conservatives should be further ahead in the polls.  Partly some of reason for them not being ahead will be a natural left-leaning bias in the media but much of the reason is the short-term memory of the average voter and, let's be frank, their selfishness.

The latter point first.  If the polls are to be believed, then the average person doesn't care that parties like Labour and the Scottish Nationalists or the even more extreme Green Party are happy to impoverish the nation and mortgage the country's future for our children, our grand-children and our great-grandchildren (etc., etc.,)  rather than undertake the structural reforms and yes, cuts in spending, that are a requirement to the improvement of the health of the UK economy.

This 'I don't care about the future of my country or kids, I just want my wide-screen TV, three holidays a year and lots of tax-payer subsidies, even if it does mean increasing borrowings and therefore debt and the deficit' attitude, can only be described as selfishness.  

Let us be very clear.  The UK has not experienced 'austerity'.  Has any pensioner seen their pension cut three or four times (as has happened in Portugal)?  No, of course they haven't.  And perhaps that is why the Conservatives are not enjoying the fruits of the economic position in which the UK sits.  People didn't feel any real pain, weren't turned out en-masse to live on the streets, those streets were not full of begging and ill-clothed children and families hawking their meagre possessions for the price of a tin of beans or a loaf of bread.   People's view of so called 'austerity' is that 'it didn't really affect me personally, too much and with Labour now saying we can spend a little bit more but tax the super-rich in order to pay for it, well that sounds reasonable to me!'  Don't worry, I am not a hair-shirt wearer who gets off on experiencing the pain of real spending cuts or seeing others experience it but I really do want to see Britain overcome it's debt dependency, for the sake of my children, grandchildren, etc., etc..

Fact is that UK government spending, under the Conservatives, has increased, every single year during this parliament.  The Conservatives went into Coalition with the Lib Dems, in 2010/2011 and total spending was £674 Bn, which was £19 Bn higher than the previous year.  In 2013/14 total government spending was £725 Bn.  Not a huge increase I will grant but neither is it a sign of the allegedly 'savage' cuts that Labour and their left-leaning allies in the media, particularly the biased BBC, would have you believe.  I believe though that the actions taken by the Conservatives will have the long term effect of reducing government expenditure.  Remember, from 1999/2000 to 2009/2010, Labour increased spending from £339 Bn to £675 Bn.  Almost doubling government spending and taking it to 47% of GDP.  The Conservatives have now got this heading towards a sub-40% position and, if re-elected will get this into a more sustainable 25-30% range during the course of the next Parliament.  Before you ask, I say sustainable because such a level of spending then allows the government the flexibility or room, if you like, to deal with unforeseen events, should they occur - to increase public spending if absolutely required.

Now to the earlier point.  The anti-Conservative bias of much of the media and particularly the BBC.
The narrative, from the Labour party, in the run-up to the election was that Conservative leader, David Cameron was a 'toff'.  Someone who had attended Eton and Oxford and was wealthy and out of touch with the general public.  Someone who lacks the 'common touch'.  Well no big surprise from Labour, there.  They project Cameron as such since it puts them, in their narrative, firmly on the other side - alongside the 'man in the street' (or has that become the 'person in the street'?).

How Labour must have chuckled last Sunday.  Cameron was interviewed by the BBC's Andrew Marr, and was asked about an interview he gave to the Countryside Alliance magazine (Countryside Alliance is a lobby group that represents rural interests and was very prominent in galvanising support from those communities, in opposition to the Fox Hunting Bill).  Anyway, Marr declared that Cameron had stated, in the CA interview, that fox-hunting was his favourite sport. Simple fact is that Cameron said nothing of the sort.  When Marr made the comment, Cameron looked non-plussed, as well he might, given that he had never said anything like that.  Just to drive home the point though, Marr then repeated the lie.  Marr has since apologised for his error but only on Twitter and only after being found out.  So, a question for the BBC and Andrew Marr -  did you knowingly lie when you falsely quoted from the CA article?  Or was it that you or your researchers were too lazy to check out the factual nature of statements?  Or was it maybe that putting such a statement, however false,  out there, would resonate with people and bias some of them, especially in urban areas, to be anti-Conservative and to confirm the Labour narrative about Cameron being a 'toff'?  Okay, so that's three questions, but you get my drift.

This is just the most blatant example of the BBC bias but you could also  include the constant interruptions made by Evan Davis in the interviews he has conducted.  Not only are these rude, they show a clear disregard for allowing the Conservatives to put across their message and response in a coherent way.  The Conservative message keeps getting broken-up into smaller 'bites' and the speaker having to try to stay on message and also to consider how and when to respond to the latest accusation.  Very poor!  The sooner the £145 TV tax is repealed, the better!

More to follow on this but my advice to Cameron is ignore the staged events and photo-ops.  Do a 'John Major' and get out on a soapbox in the towns and cities of the UK and talk directly to the people.  Show them that Conservatives passionately believe in the UK and it's people and tell them that Conservatives have a plan for us and our children, grand-children etc..  Don't let Labour and their 'cut from the same cloth' SNP allies, steal the election and our country!