Europe's failure and Obama's exceptionalism

I recently started to post on a daily basis, a review of the news, with my own particular slant on it.
Observant readers will notice I haven't managed to do this for a few days.  Don't worry, it is a specially heavy workload that has got to me, not the forces of evil!

Also, there really hasn't been that much 'new' in the news.

We continue to hear weasel words from politicians that talk tough but in reality do little.

President Obama likes to think he is exceptional.  Certainly his description of the horrors perpetrated in Paris, by Islamic extremists, as a 'setback' puts him into a particularly 'exceptional' class.  He is unable to even call the terrorists, Islamic.  He did the same when describing the Fort Hood massacre, carried out by a Muslim, who claimed to be a jihadi, as an incident of 'workplace violence'.

President Obama, is very largely alone in his denial and refusal to call these terrorists, Islamic.  The 'twitterati' insist that is because he is of the Muslim faith.  Certainly he has spent a great deal of time with Muslims - spending part of his youth in Muslim Indonesia, could well have guided him on his faith path - but I think that it goes deeper than that.  In my view his upbringing, which was centered on the Communist way, embedded in him, a deep hatred of the West and America in particular and he cannot bring himself to berate people who share his views.  I know that may sound extreme but listen to his speeches and he regularly talks about what he sees as  'the ills of America' and the West.  His words are not too far dissimilar from those of the leaders of Daesh and Al Qaeda and Boko Haram and the Shining Path and other anti-West terrorists organisation.

Paris is starting to return to normal, or at least the new normal.  A state of emergency is in place and French troops patrol the streets and landmark properties.
Brussels, the capital of Belgium and the principal seat of the European Parliament, has been in lock-down for days.
The British shamefully dither about whether or not to extend bombing to Daesh targets, in Syria, while at the same time, thinking that getting Islamists, who are returning from fighting for Daesh, to attend 'de-radicalisation' classes, will somehow solve the fifth column problem.
Ultra-Liberal Sweden is now enjoying the fruits of its ever-open door for immigrants while becoming the 'rape' capital of Europe.  Maybe,  inviting in all of those unaccompanied men, who vastly predominate in the 'refugee' population, it is not entirely a surprise that Sweden has a new 'achievement'.
Meanwhile, very belatedly, fences are starting to go up and the Schengen agreement is falling to pieces.  It is impossible to justify open borders, when their very openness invites in people who have no qualms about murdering their hosts.  And these people who are often aided and abetted by local co-religionists.

For Belgians it must be particularly galling that having opened their country to wave after wave of immigrants and turning a blind eye, while within these hordes some used Belgium as an operational base, they are now experiencing the effects of their laissez faire policies being visited upon their own doorsteps.

The same could be said of Sweden.  This is a country that has always been very open to 'refugees' and now the local population are finding themselves swamped.  Not widely reported in the media, it seems that some (many?) Swedes have had enough and there are signs of rising resentment with refugee centres being fire-bombed and so on.

All the while, the European Union goes on its merry, expensive and ineffectual way.  Germany's Angela Merkel is quieter these days as she is reeling from the backlash unleashed by her idiotic 'we will take you all in' invitation.  So into the breach, steps the unelected Jean-Claude Juncker.  For non-European readers, he is the non-entity that is the President of the European Commission, who was selected by EU leaders.  He is a former Prime Minister of Luxembourg, so you have an adequate sense of his experience on the world stage!

Meanwhile, in the background, Greece is still teetering on the economic brink and Portugal is dallying with a government that has a plurality and is anti-austerity and very much opposed to the EU/IMF/World Bank austerity.

Maybe there is some new news, after all!

To Americans, have a safe and peaceful Thanksgiving holiday.
        

EU Immigration - The solution

The European Union is facing an unprecedented invasion, right now.

Hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Africa and the Middle East are swarming into the EU, or are poised to do so.  Germany is said to be facing an influx of more than 800,000, this year.

This solution might work for some of them.

Many of these migrants are Muslims, fleeing war in Syria and Iraq or in Somalia or Eritrea or Ethiopia or Afghanistan.

Surely it would be far, far better for these migrants to be re-housed in a culture that is more in keeping with their own?

So why don't the EU authorities turn these people around and send them to Saudi Arabia or Iran - depending upon which Islamic sect, they follow.

Both are rich countries, both are strongly religious and won't persecute the migrants for practicing their religion - so long as they chose the right country.  Both are large countries with plenty of room for settling large numbers.  Saudi Arabia has a large population of immigrants from the Indian sub-continent - mainly Pakistan, it could simply replace these with the immigrants that are most in need.

This solution would reduce the burden on European countries and stop the indigenous people from feeling swamped and for their ailing economies being even more strained.  Plus, it gives the Saudis and the Iranians the opportunity to show charity and compassion to their co-religionists.  Win/Win really!

This would also take away the opportunity of those in Europe to say that these are merely economic migrants - just looking for a better life in Europe, than they can achieve at home.

If this is successful and these masses of Muslims could be accommodated within these two stalwarts of the Muslim community, then perhaps those Muslims that have migrated to Europe, during previous upheavals, could also leave and settle there, as well.

Too simplistic?  Consider how many Greeks and Turks moved in opposite directions when those nations moved apart in the 1920's.  Consider how many Muslims moved from what was to become India to what was to become Pakistan, in 1947 (and Hindus in the opposite direction.)  Mass migration can work, indeed has worked but has been most successful, when the people moving, move to an area with which they are culturally familiar.

Maybe the Americans could try this with their non-Mexican immigrants?  Let them stay in Mexico rather than take them into the USA and put them, (in an effort to disperse the large numbers) into alien environments.

If something isn't done though, watch for the further rise of far Right parties in Europe.  The French National Front is already in the ascendancy and will only be stopped from taking the French presidency by a coalition of Socialists, Communists and Conservatives.  We see, in Spain, Greece and Germany, a backlash building.  Even in my beloved UK, the UK Independence Party garnered a lot of support, in the last General Election, because of it's anti-immigration policies.

Doing nothing, isn't really an option!

Good news from Greece

I don't like to lead people on so be aware that this really isn't exactly about Greece.

I was just pondering what we have learnt from the most recent episode of the Greek Debt Saga.

For me, two things.

Firstly, we now know that the European Union can focus and spend all sorts of time and overtime seeking a solution to a problem.

Secondly, it is entirely possible, or at least the Euro leaders believe, to pass complex legislation in a couple of days.

So,,,,,,,,,,

If we take it for granted that the Greek 'can' has been kicked down the road for a few weeks, could we now maybe think about the UK?

How about, David Cameron and the rest of the EU leaders, hunkering down in Brussels for a long weekend and thrashing out the terms of Britain's continued membership of the European Union?  Many of the issues are really of the Yes or No variety so they shouldn't be too difficult to address.  Country leaders can come prepared having consulted and then say whether they accept or deny the UK position.  Then the list of the UK positions  can be published showing which have and have not been accepted.  Might not even require any 17 hour sessions.

Then, over to Westminster.  A simple question and something about the date and the voting arrangements - I doubt it would cover more than a page.  There would need to be something that says, if the outcome ifs for the UK leaving, then this would occur within 12 months of the date of the referendum.   Then debate, Second Reading, Committee Stage and Third Reading, then to the Lords and through there, quickly.  Both Houses of Parliament sitting continuously and hey presto, we have a bill.  Then fly it up to Balmoral and get the monarch's signature and off we go.

4 weeks for the campaign and then the referendum.  

It should be simple really, though politicians will try to complicate it.  They will say that this requires reasoned debate and so on but in reality, it is 'we the people' that need to debate, not politicians.  They just need to get us the ballot paper and have clarity on what we are voting for or against.

Over to you, David Cameron!

This is a Coup!

Ulster Protestants always remember and celebrate July 12th  because of what they see as William of Orange's victory over a 'papist ruler'.

Now July 12th will be remembered by many other Europeans and especially by the Greeks, as well.  The cause of the remembrance will be the coup that is being imposed upon the people of Greece.

The terms offered to Greece are unacceptable to any democratic country.  Not least, that future laws must first be reviewed and approved by Eurocrats.

Make no mistake, what is happening is that the Eurocrats are imposing rule by unelected EU officials and Greece must place,  in some kind of escrow, in a Luxembourg company, allegedly controlled by Wolfgang Schauble, the German Finance Minister, assets that are to be privatised.

• Did Greece over-borrow? - Yes but this is a coup
• Has Greece been over-spending for many years? - yes but this is a coup.
• Did banks and the Troika over-lend? - Yes but this is a coup.
• Did Goldman Sachs cooks the Greek books? - Yes but this is a coup.
• Did the governments of the EU know about GS antics? - Yes but this is a coup.
• Can the Greeks repay it's debt without a write-off? - No but this is a coup.

In the book and the film of The Godfather, there is a comment by Vito Corleone where he says' today people go into banks with guns to rob it but in the future, they will go with briefcases in and rob the bank'   Now we see that taken to its logical conclusion where these people are robbing not just a bank but a whole country!

The United Kingdom has elected a government that is committed to re-negotiating the terms of UK's continuing membership of the European Union.  I have been mildly in favour of exit but was open to persuasion.  If David Cameron was able to negotiate better terms, which brought the EU back to a looser grouping based on free trade, rather than the undemocratic and nanny-state interfering body that it has become, then I might move towards voting in favour of remaining in the EU.  Not any more.  Now I am firmly in the #Brexit camp.

In the year when the UK, and free people across the world and particularly, in the Anglo-sphere, celebrate the 800th anniversary of the signing of Magna Carta, we in the UK must, for the sake and preservation of our democracy, reject the EU and all that it now stands for.

The question I suppose is, will the EU, emboldened by its take-over of Greece, actually allow the UK to leave?

Fortunately the UK stills has an independent military.  Is still an island and has a growing economy, so perhaps we are strong enough to withstand the German-led anti-democratic juggernaut that is rolling across Europe, however, time is running out.  This movement will get Greece out of the way and then swat the Spanish and move on, aided by a supine media, to crush UK opposition,

The people on Twitter talk of the actions against Greece as being perpetrated by the German Fourth Reich.  No doubt Germans would be offended by this but the German people have put their wallets and savings ahead of any kind of solidarity with the people of Greece and Europe and German politicians have initiated a coup against an elected government.  It is ironic that Greece, the so called cradle of democracy, should be brought down by a government that has such a bad memory of what fascism entails.  A German government that is aided and abetted by the Dutch, who, like the Greeks, know a thing or two about German occupation.  The Dutch seem to have forgotten about the Honger Winter, which is what the Greeks have been facing for a number years, with ever increasing severity.

When, in future, the media bleat about 'freedom of the press' check out their credentials on the Greek crisis.  You will likely find that they have toed the EU line and parroted the lies put out by the Eurocrats because they are in the pockets of them.  They have been bought and paid for.  I stand to be corrected by any journalist reading this but only by their actions not by their words of rebuttal.

Shame too on Rupert Murdoch who, it seems is now in favour of the European Project  and will bring his media empire to bear on the side of anti-democratic forces.

Truly, July 12 2015 has been a very black day for Europe's peoples.

The United Kingdom has only one choice.  We must exit the European Union.  The referendum should be called very soon and the UK can shake of the shackles of anti-democracy.

Oh, and UKIP and others get very excited about the UK's International Aid budget of £12 Billion.  So here's an idea, let's find a way to give sums of this to the people of Greece in a direct way - food banks, for example.

Greece must say Oxhi (No)

On Sunday, Greek voters go to the poll to decide on the referendum about so-called new bail-out terms.

The question on which they are voting is quite convoluted however, the response needs to be No!  The more resounding,the better.

Why No?  Well the answer, in part,  would be why would anyone vote yes?  A Yes vote would mean more austerity being piled upon the Greek people.  Regular readers will know that I am a strong proponent of so called austerity programmes in the UK and US and my views haven't changed but what is proposed for Greece isn't really about that country 'living within its means'.

The whole Greek bail-out situation is about keeping the Euro intact and avoiding European governments and banks from having to write-down the value of loans they have made to Greece.  What has been offered to Greece are loans which are then used, not for the benefit of the Greek people or Greece's economy but to repay interest and falling-due loans to the people that have just made the loan.  This does meethen, zero, nada, zip, for the Greeks but means that those European institutions and banks can claim that the loans are still 'performing' and so no write-off is required.

These banks and such, simply cannot afford to cover the cost of their reckless lending  - and yes, I accept that the Greeks borrowed recklessly - but it is the banks and their shareholders that must now pay the price.

Greece has enacted some reforms, maybe not enough, however the creditors know that further and deeper reforms are becoming counter-productive.

The creditors have focused on Greece's (previously) generous pension arrangements.  People used to be able to retire as early as 50 years of age.  This is now being increased to 67-  the European standard of mid to late 60 years of age,   The propaganda/spin from the creditors is that Greek pensions are so generous and they represent a higher than normal percentage of the Greek GDP.  That was true.  That will become even more true as the rest of Greek economy contracts.   Sometimes I wonder if that is the 'plan' - to have Greece only populated by pensioners and then the creditors can point to the over-generous Greek pensions which then occupy +50% of GDP or whatever!

Greece unemployment is around 25%, and among young people is over 50%.  The austerity proposed does nothing, meethen, zero, nada, zip to stimulate the economy, so this condition will continue.

The proposals, upon which the Greeks will vote are all about paying the creditors.  Don't be deluded by the talk of European solidarity.  There isn't any!  It is every banker for himself!

The Germans have a word - schadenfreude - which kind of captures how the rich Northern Europeans view the situation.  These people look at Greece and Greeks and say 'You are getting what you deserve!  You have had it so easy on the backs of us hard-working Germans, Dutch, etc., with all that early retirement, etc. and now you, the Greeks must pay the price.'  Definitely not communitaire as the European federalists always talk about.

Truth is though, that the German economy has benefited from Greece's participation in the Euro (and that of the other weaker economies of Italy and Spain).   The participation of these countries has depressed the global value of the Euro and this has served to make the exports of a strong economy, like Germany, artificially cheaper on World markets.

The creditors are impoverishing a whole nation rather than face up to their responsibilities.  This is to their shame but also to the shame of their regulators who, for the sake of their own national economies, which would be affected by loan write-offs, have closed their eyes and rule books to these banks.


These creditor nations and organizations are clearly seeking to blackmail and threaten the Greek people.  They are aided by the media who keep pushing the line that many Greeks are going to vote Yes - yes to more unemployment, yes to more poverty, yes to hunger.  It is time for the Greek people to get up off of their knees and say Oxhi, the Greek word for No!  If a Greek person is wondering about voting yes, ask them these questions.  How does a Yes vote help Greece?  How does a Yes vote re-start the Greek economy? How does a yes vote put bread on the tables of Greek's starving people? How does a yes vote stop the mass immigration of Greek youth who are forced to emigrate in order to survive?

A yes vote is a vote to kick the can down the road.  Greeks should say Arketa - Enough!

I should declare an interest in all this.  As a Brit, a No vote would have less of an impact on my country than it would for Germany, for example.  Greek debt to Germany is 93 Billion Euros, while to Britain the amount is just 9.2 Billion Euro.

EU Politicians - How much is enough?

Greece's government is, not surprisingly, asking for more time to implement further budget cuts. 

It is in the balance if the real masters of Greece, the German dominated EU and the IMF, will allow for such time.  There is much speculation that contingency plans have now been put in place to allow for an 'orderly' exit of Greece, from the Euro. 

While this will cause additional pain for Greece, allowing their new currency the freedom to float (yes, it will sink initially but will then find a sustainable level), will get the Euro boot off of their throat.

And then what? 

Spain is still fragile and my expectation is that as we move into September, both Spain and Italy sovereign debt offerings will come under increasing pressure.  The current lull, is just that.  the storm is right around the corner.

Things is, I don't see how Spain can 'tighten its belt' any further.  They have initiated public spending cuts, how much more can they do, before they too throw in the towel? 

Think about those Spanish unemployment figures.  25% unemployment!  That's one in four people who are actively engaged in the workforce.  It doesn't include stay at home mums and dads, nor retirees, nor students.  No, just people who are eligible for employment.  I think the true number would be one in three Spanish persons.  Look around you!  Imagine every third person being unemployed (don't do this if you work in the UK Public Sector as even though you are under-employed, you are still, technically, employed (for now!)).   

Greece's numbers are no better.

We see TV shots of families living rough and scrounging around for food.  These aren't lazy people, they're not people from the less developed world who are suffering because the rains didn't come.  These are people living in the heart of a very rich continent who are being punished because their politicians have continuously lied to them and stolen from them and now try to tell them, it is their own fault!

The UK is outside of the Euro but is still feeling the pain of its never-ending misery and has its very own spending issues (more on that later) but maybe the time is coming for not just thinking about the break-up of the Euro but a complete re-assessment of the whole EU project, for all of the EU?

At what point does one stop squeezing a lemon - common sense says when all of the juice has been extracted but I get the sense that Frau Merkel just likes squeezing and her French poodle has to go along with her because maybe, just maybe, he senses that the markets just might see how fragile is France's economy and borrowings.

Greek Election

So what can we expect from the Greek Election?

Based on the latest polls and the positions of the various parties, the 'stay in the Euro' camp has overwhelming support. 

The actual outcome of the vote though, hangs in the balance between those parties that simply want to mildly 'tweak' the bailout and those that want to radically alter it or even tear it up. 

Both camps depend on strange bedfellows actually co-habiting  New Democracy and Pasok?  Syriza and Golden Dawn?

Interestingly, the anti-bailout parties at least command something close to a majority - a government of national unity while they re-negotiate then new elections?  Might sound tempting.

The worrying thing is the impact that the election is forecast to have on the Euro and the Eurozone economies - particularly Spain and Italy.  Consider though that from an economy position, relative to the rest of the Eurozone, Greece is very small and unimportant.  This suggests that the 'market' which is infinitely smarter than EU politicians, has moved on from Greece and now the focus is Spain and the underlying concern is the Euro itself and its in-built contradictions.

Italy might survive seeing great pressure by selling off its massive gold reserves.  Say what you like about Berlusconi, he's no Gordon Brown!  I honestly can't believe I wrote that - Berlusconi smarter than Brown - now there's a thing!

The smart money has to be on continued capital flight from Spain and increasingly so from Italy.  Imagine all that 'black economy' Italian money just sliding over the border (if it isn't already there!)

We live in dangerously interesting times.

My prediction? 

I don't think that this election will solve too much for Greece but once it's out of the way, where does the Euro and Spain hide?

Greece and Spain - Opportunity or risk?

How do you feel about Greece maybe exiting the Euro?  Are you relaxed about the implications for the economy of the EU and maybe the World?

What about Spain?  While exit from the Euro may be a little further away (or did I speak too soon!!) broadly the same economic conditions prevail and, like Greece, can austerity piled upon austerity work here?

Note also how the spotlight has moved from Greece to Spain and Ireland and Portugal have, for the time being, been skipped over.  I think though that they will come back to haunt the Euro and EU, again.

I guess I am conflicted about the whole thing. 

Part of  me expects that the Euro must collapse under the weight of its inherent contradictions and I would look forward to that as it would, I believe, lead to a much required re-evaluation of the whole EU project and may, just may, give the people of Europe a say in what they want.  I do not believe that anyone who knows anything about Europe and the EU, can say that the current set-up has any democratic legitimacy.

On the other hand, I worry about what would be the knock-on consequences of a major default or banks collapsing, in Spain.  I think that Greece is essentially 'priced in' for the financial markets (even if the non-austerity parties eventually form a coalition).

Spain though is another and much bigger 'kettle of fish'.  The ripples from a banking sector collapse, in Spain will have much more impact and France will not be unaffected, by any means.  Latin America will also not escape unscathed, is my belief.

So what a choice -

Hope that people can accept that 'living within your means' (that is what austerity really means!) and will undertake the hardships to travel that journey

or

Hope that the weaknesses of the Euro project lead to its demise and a complete re-assessment of the EU - its purpose and its legislative reach and equally importantly, its lack of democratic accountability.

Any thoughts?

Police and The Sun

Shouldn't all of us be disturbed at the way the Metropolitan Police are handling the investigations about possible wrong-doing at The Sun.

Assigning 170 officers?  More than covered the PanAm-Lockerbie investigation, apparently.

Dawn raids (which get leaked to the press!)? 

These aren't armed killers or dangerous terrorists - they journalists, for heavens sake.

I don't read The Sun and frankly much of what I have heard about its reporting style I find distasteful but as their former political editor has said, where is the proportionality? 

There are killers and muggers and rapists sitting at home tonight and there are 170 less policemen concerned or involved with tracking them down.  What's to stop them going out and doing it again - well 170 less officers for a start!

Abu Qatada is about to be released onto our streets and instead of gathering evidence to put him away or get him out of our way, 170 of the police are otherwise engaged.


Incidentally, given that some of the accusations that are floating around, talk of bribes or improper payments  to police officers, how can any UK police force really lead the investigation?

Oh, and those other newspapers and TV News smiling so smugly at the fate of The Sun, look to yourselves and your house.  Sure that you have never paid a policeman for a lead or a tip?  Or bough a civil servant an expensive dinner, to get the low-down on a story?  No?  Sorry, simply don't believe you.

I do believe that criminal investigations should be pursued.  I do believe that journalists should be treated just like anyone else before the law and that includes being presumed innocent until tried and found otherwise.

I have to question why it seems to be the senior people at The Sun that are being arrested.  I really can't believe that they were the ones, personally passing over the 'brown envelopes', rather than the actual 'reporter'.

This whole episode leaves me with a sense of unease as to where we might end up as regards 'control' of the media (and yes I mean media and not just the printed press) and I also include social media as being at risk.

Worrying times!  And then there is the happenings in Greece!

BBC Twisted Priorities

Syrian bombardment of civilians in Homs
Continuing Euro crisis in Greece
Capello resigns as England Manager

Pick the lead story on BBC 10 o'clock news.

Yes, that's right Capello resigning.  Good to see that the biased BBC has its priorities set right.  Bet Hester wishes this had happened a few weeks ago!