UK's Art. 50 response to EU

At first listen, the tone and words used by Donald Tusk, European Council President, seem helpful and conciliatory but listen again.  The EU response to Britain’s triggering of Article 50 is a poisoned chalice.

There are three main strands to this response.

Firstly, the EU seeks a ‘divorce settlement’.  The figure that has been bandied about is £50-60 Billion.  The EU, which is the shorthand phrase I shall use for Germany, says that they want this resolved before moving on to any deal on the future relationship between the EU and a freed Britain.  In a ‘conciliatory’ frame of mind, they say that they only want to see progress on this matter – so the general terms of reference based on what the UK should pay – rather than an actual number. 

This though is a trap.  ‘Progress’ will not be made on anything that the UK proposes which takes account of prior contributions, for example. 

In the past 40+ years, the UK has contributed a net £500 Billion plus to the EU.  That is a net number – money that has flowed from Britain out to the EU.  That is money that has been ‘invested’ in farm support payments to French, Italian and Greek farmers but also much investment has been made into roads and buildings across the EU.  These represent the ‘assets’ of the EU and Britain’s contribution to these needs to be recognised.  Since the talk is of a ‘divorce settlement’ think of these as the main home and second homes that the British spouse has contributed to.  In a divorce the value of these would be considered.  The EU only wants to consider their own future expenditure and Britain’s contribution to that.  So, ascribing no value to the past contributions. 

So, in the eyes of the EU, the more than €24 Billion that Britain invested in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is ignored. (Oh, and that is not part of my earlier quoted £500 Billion number!).  Neither is the €39 Billion invested in the European Investment Bank (EIB).  Nor are the amounts invested in the EU offices that have spread around the globe.

Second part of the response is the Spanish sop.  Essentially, the EU is seeking to make a condition of a deal, that Spain should have a say regarding Gibraltar.  The same Gibraltar that voted 99% to 1% to want to remain a British Overseas Territory, in a recent referendum.  Spain has long coveted Gibraltar, which fell under British rule back in 1713. 

I think of this part of the response a ‘false flag’ Something to get us to focus on this and become highly irate so that eventually, when the EU give in on this, it can be dressed-up as a major concession.  Simply put, the EU, Spain and the UK know that this isn’t even on the table.  It is though an irritant and one that the EU know will be seen as so.

The third part of the response is the most critical.  The EU seeks to control Britain’s post-Brexit taxation and regulation policies.  The EU is a typical bureaucratic entity.  They look for uniformity so that no country stands out and can attract investment or set policies that are appropriate for itself. 

Britain already has a pro-enterprise approach to Corporate taxation and, if it can silence its internal socialist envy-peddlers, will have a personal income tax policy that promotes individual rather than State growth. 

The EU know that Britain will continue down this pathway.  They are seeking, by the dangerous third component to their response, to stifle this.  Should they succeed, then parts of the Brexit Referendum Project Fear will be fulfilled. 

What kind of country, other than a client state, (which is increasingly how we must see the relationship between Germany and the other EU ‘nations’) cannot control its own levels of taxation and regulations?  What would be the point of Brexit if we are controlled by Brussels (Berlin on the Zenne)?

So!  The response from the UK Government needs to be as follows:

Dear President Tusk,

We have heard of your proposals regarding our invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

In order to facilitate discussions, I advise, on behalf of the UK Government, that we will not accept any discussions about or inclusion of the status of Gibraltar in these discussions and most specifically will not allow any talks of a bilateral nature between Spain and the UK, to be a part of such discussions.

In a similar vein, the UK Government will not allow the EU to have any say or competency over Britain’s taxation or regulatory regimes once we exit the EU.

Finally, as a gesture of goodwill, the UK will not pursue a refund of its share of contributions made to the EU, during the course of its membership.  Linked to this is an understanding that the UK will make no further contributions to the EU, from the day that the UK’s membership of the EU, actually ceases.

Yours sincerely

Theresa May

On behalf of the UK Government

I have no doubt that such a letter would be found, by the EU-favouring Foreign and Commonwealth Office, to be lacking in diplomatic finesse.  That is intentional.  A very clear message needs to be sent.  Very clear.  When Theresa May said ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ this wasn’t rhetoric.  She was speaking on behalf of the UK.  We do not expect to spend two years discussing issues on which we simply will never concede.  The EU need to understand that, immediately.  The gloves need to come off.  Diplomatic niceties are not what is needed, plain talking and backbone are. 

We would look for a partnership with the EU but a partnership of equals. If that is what the EU wants then they should start seriously negotiating and they should cease with  their delaying tactics which they know will not be conceded. 

Oh and yes, regarding the thinly veiled threat concerning security cooperation.  The EU and its apologists within the UK, need to understand that Britain doesn’t do anything for free and the contribution to Europol and security matters, from the UK is far superior to that from other member states.  Theresa May was absolutely right to put this on the table.

Cameron's dodgy dossier

Fed-up with all of the contradictory forecasts and statements about the referendum on Britain's continued membership of the European Union?  You probably should look away.

I would like to see another forecast - I know, that suggests either some kind of a weird fantasy obsession or that maybe I am just sad but let me explain.

The UK Treasury have been burning the midnight oil and going into 'spreadsheet frenzy' to produce forecast after forecast that shows how much the UK economy would suffer if the UK electorate had the nerve/courage to vote for Brexit.  So I am not alone in wanting forecasts!  Maybe not even sad.

The latest forecasts suggests a 12% decline in the value of Sterling, an increase in unemployment of up to 820,000, house price declines of 10-18% and a deep recession as a result of the shock to the economy, from a Brexit.

Now, these Treasury economists are supposed to be smart and I suppose that the reason that they are getting the same 'results' as other forecasting bodies is because they are all using the same economic model.   So rather than being independent verification, as is being touted, we instead have a reiteration of the same result because the 'domesday' data input and the model used is largely the same.  The surprise would be if they came out with a different result.

I would like to see a forecast that looks at the impact of a Brexit, not on the UK economy but rather on the economy of the remaining EU countries.

The doomsayers include in their forecasts projections that immediately a Brexit vote is achieved the four horsemen of the apocalypse will descend.  We will have Pestilence, Famine, Death and of course War.  Additionally, overnight or close to it, the strongest growing economy in the EU will dive into recession.

But...

What about the effect on Germany?  Or on France or the Netherlands?

In 2015, the Germans exported US $100 billion of their excellent cars and other goods and services to the UK.  They then imported just US $46.5 billion from the UK and so enjoyed a surplus of US$ 53.5 billion.

In the same year, France exported US$41.5 billion and imported $27 billion, so having a US$ 14.5 billion trade surplus.  The position for the Netherlands was exports to the UK of US$50.7 billion and imports of $34.2 billion, so a trade surplus of $34.2 billion.  I am not sure if that Netherlands import figure includes items that are 'imported' as part of a trans-shipment process through the Rotterdam super-port but you get the drift.

Now - still with me?- If the Sterling exchange rate did fall by 12% (why not 10% or 15%?) then this would make UK exports cheaper and if proper WTO duty rates, of around 4%,  were used, rather than the extremely high rates used in the Treasury model, then the falling exchange rate would completely eliminate the effect of any duties and would still provide an export boost.

Problem is though, that this 12% fall is one-sided.  It supposes that the other global economies would be okay and stable and only the UK would suffer from a Brexit.  Consider though the effect of the UK retaliating against Germany, France and the Netherlands, if they and the rest of the EU imposed  onerous customs duties on the UK.  If the UK did exactly the same and applied the same rates of customs duties, the economies of these countries would undoubtedly suffer and this would ripple on and impact the Euro exchange rate.   So maybe that 12% decline in Sterling's value is incorrect.

Let's suppose that the USA also followed the EU lead and imposed similar level duties.  Then the US economy and the US $ exchange rate would also suffer as they have a small trade surplus with the UK. Albeit not too much but the impact would not be benign.

We all know D'Israeli's saying about 'lies, damn lies and statistics' however, what we are being presented with are one-sided forecasts that simply serve the UK government's position.  In none of these 'forecasts' do we hear the impact of Britain's reduced contribution to the EU.  This is variously estimated at £55 million per day! Again, this would positively impact Britain and negatively impact the EU.  Those particular coins, unsurprisingly have two sides.  Nor is any of the positive effect of reducing the mountains of 'red tape' that strangle UK and EU business, shown.

Also consider that a fall in house prices would be a boon for all those young people trying to get on the housing ladder.  Yes it would negatively impact those people who speculate in the housing market - foreign flight capital, members of Parliament, etc., but overall, the effect would be positive.

In the past, UK Prime Minister, David Cameron spoke of presenting the case around the referendum to the British people and letting them decide.  Instead of doing this, he and his Chancellor, George Osborne are becoming ever more outrageous in the claims and use of data.  Indeed, they are starting to make Tony Blair's 'dodgy dossier' look like a respectable, sober and credible document!


George Osborne, speaking when he established the Office of Budget Responsibility, said that the need for this organisation, independent of the the government, was because in the past, HM Treasury forecasts were found to be biased and dubious because of the political interference.  So when we see the drivel now emanating from Osborne's Treasury we know that we need to filter any forecasts through the prism of number manipulation so as to achieve a pre-determined outcome.  In other words, don't trust or set any store by what they say - they say what their master - George Osborne - wants them to say.

To close, another forecast.

David Cameron has said today, that the cost of Brexit could add £230 to the cost of a holiday in Europe, for a family of 4.  Of this is a 'could' rather than a 'would' and of course this figure is 'supported' by the usual dodgy statistics and calculations from the widely discredited forecasts publishers.  However, let's say that this time, the number is right, does £57.50 a head sound a high price to pay for the restoration of Britain's long-held democratic traditions?  Britain has paid a far, far higher price to defend its democracy, in the past.  A price in blood and lives, not in £ sterling.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the unelected 'President' of the European Commission, who hails from Luxembourg, has threatened the UK by saying that 'deserters' can expect no assistance from the EU.   Well Mr Juncker, I suggest that you hit the history books.  Go back to the history of the second World War.  In 1940, after the fall of EU members France, Belgium and Netherlands, at the hands of the Nazi hordes, Britain, aided by its colonies and Commonwealth allies, stood alone against the Nazis.  Britain didn't desert Europe's people in 1940 and we won't desert them now or in the future.  Brexit will provide a liberating example for those Europeans now trapped within an anti-democratic EU.  Brexit will allow those countries that suffered under post-war Soviet domination, to experience true freedom and democracy, when the inevitable collapse of the EU occurs.

£57.50 a head for freedom - bargain of the century - where do I send my money?

Vote Brexit, shake off the yoke of anti-democracy which is weighing us down and restore Britain's freedom

Europe's failure and Obama's exceptionalism

I recently started to post on a daily basis, a review of the news, with my own particular slant on it.
Observant readers will notice I haven't managed to do this for a few days.  Don't worry, it is a specially heavy workload that has got to me, not the forces of evil!

Also, there really hasn't been that much 'new' in the news.

We continue to hear weasel words from politicians that talk tough but in reality do little.

President Obama likes to think he is exceptional.  Certainly his description of the horrors perpetrated in Paris, by Islamic extremists, as a 'setback' puts him into a particularly 'exceptional' class.  He is unable to even call the terrorists, Islamic.  He did the same when describing the Fort Hood massacre, carried out by a Muslim, who claimed to be a jihadi, as an incident of 'workplace violence'.

President Obama, is very largely alone in his denial and refusal to call these terrorists, Islamic.  The 'twitterati' insist that is because he is of the Muslim faith.  Certainly he has spent a great deal of time with Muslims - spending part of his youth in Muslim Indonesia, could well have guided him on his faith path - but I think that it goes deeper than that.  In my view his upbringing, which was centered on the Communist way, embedded in him, a deep hatred of the West and America in particular and he cannot bring himself to berate people who share his views.  I know that may sound extreme but listen to his speeches and he regularly talks about what he sees as  'the ills of America' and the West.  His words are not too far dissimilar from those of the leaders of Daesh and Al Qaeda and Boko Haram and the Shining Path and other anti-West terrorists organisation.

Paris is starting to return to normal, or at least the new normal.  A state of emergency is in place and French troops patrol the streets and landmark properties.
Brussels, the capital of Belgium and the principal seat of the European Parliament, has been in lock-down for days.
The British shamefully dither about whether or not to extend bombing to Daesh targets, in Syria, while at the same time, thinking that getting Islamists, who are returning from fighting for Daesh, to attend 'de-radicalisation' classes, will somehow solve the fifth column problem.
Ultra-Liberal Sweden is now enjoying the fruits of its ever-open door for immigrants while becoming the 'rape' capital of Europe.  Maybe,  inviting in all of those unaccompanied men, who vastly predominate in the 'refugee' population, it is not entirely a surprise that Sweden has a new 'achievement'.
Meanwhile, very belatedly, fences are starting to go up and the Schengen agreement is falling to pieces.  It is impossible to justify open borders, when their very openness invites in people who have no qualms about murdering their hosts.  And these people who are often aided and abetted by local co-religionists.

For Belgians it must be particularly galling that having opened their country to wave after wave of immigrants and turning a blind eye, while within these hordes some used Belgium as an operational base, they are now experiencing the effects of their laissez faire policies being visited upon their own doorsteps.

The same could be said of Sweden.  This is a country that has always been very open to 'refugees' and now the local population are finding themselves swamped.  Not widely reported in the media, it seems that some (many?) Swedes have had enough and there are signs of rising resentment with refugee centres being fire-bombed and so on.

All the while, the European Union goes on its merry, expensive and ineffectual way.  Germany's Angela Merkel is quieter these days as she is reeling from the backlash unleashed by her idiotic 'we will take you all in' invitation.  So into the breach, steps the unelected Jean-Claude Juncker.  For non-European readers, he is the non-entity that is the President of the European Commission, who was selected by EU leaders.  He is a former Prime Minister of Luxembourg, so you have an adequate sense of his experience on the world stage!

Meanwhile, in the background, Greece is still teetering on the economic brink and Portugal is dallying with a government that has a plurality and is anti-austerity and very much opposed to the EU/IMF/World Bank austerity.

Maybe there is some new news, after all!

To Americans, have a safe and peaceful Thanksgiving holiday.
        

Europe - too little, too late

Given the continuing crisis in Europe, I must, once again, return to the subject.

Belatedly, EU politicians are coming to the realisation that the best way to tackle the issue of Syrian refugees, is to do so, at, or close to source.  So they are talking about granting further aid to Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey.  This will certainly help – indeed, this is the policy that has been advocated by the British government – a policy for which the liberal left and EU elite castigated Cameron’s government.

However, this solution only has the opportunity to address the Syrian element.  Many of the swarm of people now invading Europe’s soft underbelly, come from places other than Syria.  They come from Iraq – even though many areas of Iraq are under government rather than Daesh control.  They come from Eritrea – presumably these are in opposition to the government?  They come from Pakistan and Bangladesh, from Somalia and Ethiopia, Nigeria and Kenya .    These people are getting swept-up in the mass and all are being labelled as ‘refugees’   Plainly that is wrong but the EU solution does nothing to address this. 

Nor does it do anything to address the mass of immigrants that are seeking to illegally enter Europe, from Libya.   So hard luck Italy – Germany finally feels imperilled by the swarm coming in from the south-east and so action must be taken.  France is feeling destabilised by these immigrants and so, to hell with the Italians.

Donald Tusk, President of the European Council (being a European position, quite naturally, unelected), laid out the new policy last night, after long talks with EU member states.  These talks followed on from the issue of a ‘diktat’ from the European Union that forces most of these ‘sovereign’ nations to accept a quota of immigrants (a few countries, the UK among them, are not affected because they have an opt-out).    There has to be a strong question mark over whether or not any of these nations can really continue to be called ‘sovereign’, especially when they can be forced to accept policies that they very clearly don’t want to.

Consider also, that Spain has been told it must accept 19,219 migrants.  Portugal must take 4,775.  That is the same Spain with unemployment currently standing at more than 22% and youth unemployment at more than 48%.  The same Portugal with unemployment at close to 12% and youth unemployment of more than 31%.  So these already suffering and impoverished countries must accept people who will naturally be an immediate and long term welfare burden.

Tusk and the EU elite have come to the realisation that they must undo the effects of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s at best naïve, and certainly very stupid open invitation to ‘refugees’.  Merkel’s invitation has been likened to those teenagers that post a ‘party at my house, tonight’ notice on FaceBook or Twitter and then wonder why hundreds or thousands of people turn-up.

Tusk advised people that it is time to ‘correct the policy of open doors and windows’   He also warned that the greater part of the tide (is that the Polish word for swarm?) was yet to come!

The EU will also need to strengthen its borders, according to Tusk.  Yes, that’s right, the EU needs to do the very thing that Hungary has been so pilloried for.  Hungary builds a fence – very bad.  EU builds fences in border states, including Hungary – that’s okay!  A fiction writer wouldn’t be believed if he or she wrote such stuff!  I suppose though, that is the price that is paid, when a nation surrenders its sovereignty.

 

Memo to SkyNews and BBCNews – Maybe do some background checks on those Syrian professionals that you interview?  Yes they can appear quite eloquent and well-spoken but maybe ask yourself  how, in what Sky and the BBC insist is an oppressive regime, led by Assad, did they manage to have such a very good, middle class lifestyle?  Were they maybe, until very recently, staunch supporters of the regime, who have ‘read the writing on the wall’ and are getting out, with their wealth, before Assad falls?  Wouldn’t that make them economic migrants rather than refugees

One intriguing prospect of the EU’s crass mishandling of the migrant invasion is that this is seriously strengthening the hand of the Brexit  campaign.  What kind of country would Britain be, if Eurocrats and ministers from other EU countries can simply dictate how many immigrants a company must take?  What kind of a country would Britain be if its borders were to be protected, not by  its own troops and border services but by an EU Border Force (the creation of this supra-national body is the latest idea out the EU Project)   One has to wonder if this is by some kind of design.  Has Brussels and Berlin decided that the British can never be ‘brought to heel’ (history should have been a good guide here!) and so the only way that the Euro-Project can progress, is without the UK.  Have the Germans and EU elite spoken to Obama’s US administration and reached an understanding to isolate the UK?  Will they be ‘bigging up’ Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP, so as to create division within the UK?

Watch this space!

See also Europe - A Refugee is for life.

Europe Immigration - A solution

A Swarm

Action required

 

EU Immigration - The solution

The European Union is facing an unprecedented invasion, right now.

Hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Africa and the Middle East are swarming into the EU, or are poised to do so.  Germany is said to be facing an influx of more than 800,000, this year.

This solution might work for some of them.

Many of these migrants are Muslims, fleeing war in Syria and Iraq or in Somalia or Eritrea or Ethiopia or Afghanistan.

Surely it would be far, far better for these migrants to be re-housed in a culture that is more in keeping with their own?

So why don't the EU authorities turn these people around and send them to Saudi Arabia or Iran - depending upon which Islamic sect, they follow.

Both are rich countries, both are strongly religious and won't persecute the migrants for practicing their religion - so long as they chose the right country.  Both are large countries with plenty of room for settling large numbers.  Saudi Arabia has a large population of immigrants from the Indian sub-continent - mainly Pakistan, it could simply replace these with the immigrants that are most in need.

This solution would reduce the burden on European countries and stop the indigenous people from feeling swamped and for their ailing economies being even more strained.  Plus, it gives the Saudis and the Iranians the opportunity to show charity and compassion to their co-religionists.  Win/Win really!

This would also take away the opportunity of those in Europe to say that these are merely economic migrants - just looking for a better life in Europe, than they can achieve at home.

If this is successful and these masses of Muslims could be accommodated within these two stalwarts of the Muslim community, then perhaps those Muslims that have migrated to Europe, during previous upheavals, could also leave and settle there, as well.

Too simplistic?  Consider how many Greeks and Turks moved in opposite directions when those nations moved apart in the 1920's.  Consider how many Muslims moved from what was to become India to what was to become Pakistan, in 1947 (and Hindus in the opposite direction.)  Mass migration can work, indeed has worked but has been most successful, when the people moving, move to an area with which they are culturally familiar.

Maybe the Americans could try this with their non-Mexican immigrants?  Let them stay in Mexico rather than take them into the USA and put them, (in an effort to disperse the large numbers) into alien environments.

If something isn't done though, watch for the further rise of far Right parties in Europe.  The French National Front is already in the ascendancy and will only be stopped from taking the French presidency by a coalition of Socialists, Communists and Conservatives.  We see, in Spain, Greece and Germany, a backlash building.  Even in my beloved UK, the UK Independence Party garnered a lot of support, in the last General Election, because of it's anti-immigration policies.

Doing nothing, isn't really an option!

2014 in review

This has been quite a year.  Some things would have been predictable at the start of the year and others not.

It wouldn't have taken a rocket scientist to predict that the Republicans would do reasonably well in the US Mid Terms.  It would though have been rash to predict that they did as well as they actually achieved.

I wouldn't have been so rash to predict that despite such representative progress, the current Republican leadership in the House of Representatives and the Senate would then cravenly acquiesce and pass the so called 'Cromnibus' bill with $1.1Trillion of new spending.  One long suspected them of being RINOs but to so blatantly, and especially so soon after the Mid Terms, ignore the crystal clear direction from the American people, takes some kind of special courage or blindness and deafness.  Or is it just arrogance?

Clearly though, Mitch McConnell in the Senate and John Boehner in the House must be deposed and replaced by real Republicans who understand the message that the people of America delivered on November 4th. .  Roll on January and a new Congress and a new GOP leadership.

Also predictable was the results from the August killing of Michael Brown, in Ferguson.  Protests about police brutality, Al Sharpton backing-up a fuel truck to add to the flames, rioters that 'trash' their own neighborhoods and loot and steal from their own people, the Obama administrations use of the incident to push their progressive agenda.  Following on, when the Grand Jury decided that based on the evidence that they had the killing was justified, we saw the normal reaction from people who demand justice but don't accept it, when it doesn't coincide with their version of justice.  Same thing happened in New York.  In both cases the 'victim' was held-up as some kind of angel, a gentle giant, if you will.  Of course the airing of the security video of Michael Brown stealing from a store and assaulting the store-owner, in the process, put the truth to that lie.

I don't though, think that I could have predicted the length or depth to which Obama and,  departing but not soon enough, Attorney-General Eric Holder would drag the US Government.  They spoke of understanding the anger.  Of empathizing.  Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised.  So called 'progressives' always use 'equivalence'  and historical reference to justify the unjustifiable.  America once had slaves that were brought to the country from Africa - therefore anything that these people do, even if it is 150 years after they were emancipated, is allowed because it is a reaction to that wrong that was done to their ancestors!

All crime statistics show that American blacks are more likely to die at the hands of another black than they are at the hands of a white cop.  People point to the disproportionate number of black people in America's prison population and see this as some kind of racism.  So let's ignore the fact that America's blacks - especially young black men - are much more prone to violence and crime and end up getting convicted as a result of the choices (bad ones) that they make.  Instead, let's blame it on white slave owners from the 19th century (who, incidentally were largely Democrats, which is why the Democrat Party so opposed the abolition of Slavery!!)

It would have been good but probably unpredictable, to see black role models step-up and tell young black males that if you go around stealing and terrorizing people then you will end-up in jail or dead.  Not because you are black but because you are committing a crime.  If you want the latest clothes or shoes or cars, then do what most people do - work for them.  If you want a job, don't go to an interview with your ass hanging out of your trousers and you all 'blinged-up' and talking like only another gang-banger could understand.   The government can only offer blacks hand-outs.  If they need a hand-up, then they need to reach for it, themselves!

ISIS was entirely predictable - Obama's administration has abdicated responsibility in the Middle East.  They equate the self-defence actions of the Israelis with that of an 'apartheid' state and allow a terrorist organization such as HAMAS to go unpunished for their crimes.  There is even talk that the USA might impose some kind of sanctions against Israel!  having lifted sanctions against Iran, I suppose that the machinery needs to be put to work somewhere!

Talking of Iran, there are rumours that an agreement exists but it isn't being publicised because the Iranians need time to 'sell it' to the people and the Ayatollahs!

Other predictable events from 2014

All UK political parties falling over themselves to offer a blank cheque to the NHS.

The SNP, having lost the Scottish Independence Referendum, continuing to push for all of the trappings of independence without any of the responsibility.  Equally predictable that they are allowed to get away with their claims about independence making economic sense for Scotland and these all being based on oil at an average price of $113 a barrel.  Now it is around half that price, the fragility of their policies are exposed!

UKIP doing well as Britain, or perhaps more accurately  England come to reject the recent but rapid implementation of 'multi-culturalism'.  I think that the biggest problem with 'multi-culturalism' is that it allows no place in the 'multi' part for the indigenous culture.  Britons feel swamped because their values are being replaced.   And politicians from the three main parties are seen to be complicit in this.

Germany winning the World Cup wasn't so predictable but was fully deserved.  England going home early, was, sadly always on the cards.  Australia thrashing England in the Ashes was ominously predictable.  The England win in 2013 was much more slender and lucky than the scorelines suggested.  One wonders how the awfully tragic death of Philip Hughes will affect the bowling of Mitchell Johnson, in the future.

Unfortunately, the post-January fall-off in Arsenal's Premier League performance was also predictable though one always travels in hope!

On the personal front, I became a grandfather for the first time and though we don't see as much of my grandson, as we would like - he is in Scotland and we are in the UAE - the wonders of modern communications do help to bridge the gap.

Unsurprisingly, the pause in Global Warming or Climate Change or whatever is the current name that is applied to the non-happening environmental event, continued.   This of course didn't stop countries spending untold billions and impoverishing their people along the way, to try and address the climate change that simply refuses to conform to the expectations of the science and psuedo-science community and all of the other 'hangers-on' and band-wagon jumpers.  Thinking about 2015 and onwards, I predict that people will come to the realisation the this climate change just isn't happening and will demand that their politicians stop wasting money and stop funding the regressive policies of the so called 'progressive agenda'.

Of course it would have been very difficult to predict what happened to those two Malaysian Airlines planes.  One becoming inexplicably lost in the Indian Ocean and the other being shot down  as a victim of Russian expansionism or European Union adventurism, depending upon your viewpoint.  Nevertheless, the loss of life was tragic.

It wouldn't though have been difficult to predict something like the Peshawar school massacre.  The chances of this being perpetrated by the Taliban (Pakistan Branch office) were always high, given the effectively 'failed state' that is Pakistan and the state within a state that is the Pakistan Intelligence Service.  Unfortunately, we can expect more of the same in 2015 and later years.  Indeed, this won't ever cease while so many Muslims silently accept these acts being committed in their name.

Ebola was predictable but not Obama's actions in importing this into the USA.  Like the diseases brought into the USA by illegal immigrants through the US' open Southern border, these could have been prevented but they fit Obama's warped agenda to hollow-out and destroy America.

Boko Haram's action in kidnapping 200 young girls is of a kind with ISIS' enslavement of Yazidi and Christian girls.  The feeble #hashtag effort by Obama and his wife and their Hollywood allies was a  sad reflection of America's declining position in the world.

Crime continued as could be predicted - Oscar Pistorius found guilty, though of a lesser charge.  Rolf Harris and Max Clifford and Stuart Hall convicted on ancient sexual assault charges - though Bill Roach and Michael LeVell acquited.  Not sure how to categorise Dave Lee Travis who was acquitted and then re-charged.

Israel and Gaza fought a war because, predictably, Israel got tired of having rockets fired into its territory and tunnels being used to infiltrate the country.  Equally predictable the leftist media sided with the aggressor Palestinians rather than the defending Israelis.

The most predictable event of 2014?  The USA raising, yet again, its debt ceiling.

Most of the above is, I am afraid a more than a little depressing but some things particularly lifted my spirits this year.

Malala Yousafzai winning the Nobel Peace Prize - one in the eye for the Taliban and anyone that wants to hold back women.

The Ice Bucket challenge raised funds for ALS and got people around the world, engaged.

Who cannot have been moved by the tale of Stephen Sutton?  In the short life of this remarkable young man, his story touched so many people and his efforts raised significant funds for cancer research.



Not Happy Holidays but I do wish you a very Merry Christmas and here's hoping 2015 is more peaceful for the world!

EU Finger Pointing, Deficits and Projections

As 2011 draws to a close let's take a look at the EU financial situation.

The 17 EuroZone countries plus an unknown number of other EU countries, but not the UK, have agreed a new financial treaty.  Amongst other things this limits deficits and borrowings.  Worryingly, from a democracy perspective, EU bureaucrats will get sight of and review national budgets, of those that sign-up before the sovereign parliaments.

Yes, I know what you are thinking.  This borrowing limit was agreed to back at Maastricht when the same countries signed-up to the Stability and Growth Pact.  This was intended to keep the Germans on board as they gave up the Bundesbank control of their currency.

Guess who broke the rules first?  Yes, you're right - Germany!  Who else?  Everyone!  Though Spain broke the rules least, it is now suffering 20+% unemployment and a trade deficit of more than 4% and its labour costs are more 30% above what they were in 1999, when the Euro started!.  France's labour costs are 25% higher and Italy's on a par with Spain.

Good news though is that Germany labour costs have barely moved since 1999!  That contributes to a German trade surplus of close to 6%, while France and Italy all endure the consequences of 2-4% deficits, alongside Spain.

Very communitairre!

So 2012?
Maybe Germany needs to leave the Euro (Netherlands also?) so as to allow for a devaluation and reduce the labour costs in the other countries?

Other countries, outside the EuroZone,  will start to look at the recently agreed-to 'fiscal accord' and this will likely start to unravel.

If Germany doesn't exit the Euro, then look for Greece to do so maybe also Italy and/or Spain.

Germany, France and the European Central Bank will try for a managed devaluation of the Euro but the markets already scent blood and will be pushing for more and for faster.

Step in the credit rating agencies - and cherished gold-plated ratings are lost.  France will be mortified and loudly proclaim an Anglo-Saxon plot but won't look at their own precipitous growth in public and private debt, in the last ten years! 

The trigger (s)? 
Could be the weather - a cold snap forces people out of their unheated homes, onto the streets in protest.   A Greek default - there is only so much they can do and that isn't enough. 
Italian indigestion? - brought on by trying to take medicine from a technocrat.  

Oh, and a recession in case you thought you could ride-out all of the above.

Have a healthy 2012 - I would normally say prosperous but........