Cameron's dodgy dossier

Fed-up with all of the contradictory forecasts and statements about the referendum on Britain's continued membership of the European Union?  You probably should look away.

I would like to see another forecast - I know, that suggests either some kind of a weird fantasy obsession or that maybe I am just sad but let me explain.

The UK Treasury have been burning the midnight oil and going into 'spreadsheet frenzy' to produce forecast after forecast that shows how much the UK economy would suffer if the UK electorate had the nerve/courage to vote for Brexit.  So I am not alone in wanting forecasts!  Maybe not even sad.

The latest forecasts suggests a 12% decline in the value of Sterling, an increase in unemployment of up to 820,000, house price declines of 10-18% and a deep recession as a result of the shock to the economy, from a Brexit.

Now, these Treasury economists are supposed to be smart and I suppose that the reason that they are getting the same 'results' as other forecasting bodies is because they are all using the same economic model.   So rather than being independent verification, as is being touted, we instead have a reiteration of the same result because the 'domesday' data input and the model used is largely the same.  The surprise would be if they came out with a different result.

I would like to see a forecast that looks at the impact of a Brexit, not on the UK economy but rather on the economy of the remaining EU countries.

The doomsayers include in their forecasts projections that immediately a Brexit vote is achieved the four horsemen of the apocalypse will descend.  We will have Pestilence, Famine, Death and of course War.  Additionally, overnight or close to it, the strongest growing economy in the EU will dive into recession.

But...

What about the effect on Germany?  Or on France or the Netherlands?

In 2015, the Germans exported US $100 billion of their excellent cars and other goods and services to the UK.  They then imported just US $46.5 billion from the UK and so enjoyed a surplus of US$ 53.5 billion.

In the same year, France exported US$41.5 billion and imported $27 billion, so having a US$ 14.5 billion trade surplus.  The position for the Netherlands was exports to the UK of US$50.7 billion and imports of $34.2 billion, so a trade surplus of $34.2 billion.  I am not sure if that Netherlands import figure includes items that are 'imported' as part of a trans-shipment process through the Rotterdam super-port but you get the drift.

Now - still with me?- If the Sterling exchange rate did fall by 12% (why not 10% or 15%?) then this would make UK exports cheaper and if proper WTO duty rates, of around 4%,  were used, rather than the extremely high rates used in the Treasury model, then the falling exchange rate would completely eliminate the effect of any duties and would still provide an export boost.

Problem is though, that this 12% fall is one-sided.  It supposes that the other global economies would be okay and stable and only the UK would suffer from a Brexit.  Consider though the effect of the UK retaliating against Germany, France and the Netherlands, if they and the rest of the EU imposed  onerous customs duties on the UK.  If the UK did exactly the same and applied the same rates of customs duties, the economies of these countries would undoubtedly suffer and this would ripple on and impact the Euro exchange rate.   So maybe that 12% decline in Sterling's value is incorrect.

Let's suppose that the USA also followed the EU lead and imposed similar level duties.  Then the US economy and the US $ exchange rate would also suffer as they have a small trade surplus with the UK. Albeit not too much but the impact would not be benign.

We all know D'Israeli's saying about 'lies, damn lies and statistics' however, what we are being presented with are one-sided forecasts that simply serve the UK government's position.  In none of these 'forecasts' do we hear the impact of Britain's reduced contribution to the EU.  This is variously estimated at £55 million per day! Again, this would positively impact Britain and negatively impact the EU.  Those particular coins, unsurprisingly have two sides.  Nor is any of the positive effect of reducing the mountains of 'red tape' that strangle UK and EU business, shown.

Also consider that a fall in house prices would be a boon for all those young people trying to get on the housing ladder.  Yes it would negatively impact those people who speculate in the housing market - foreign flight capital, members of Parliament, etc., but overall, the effect would be positive.

In the past, UK Prime Minister, David Cameron spoke of presenting the case around the referendum to the British people and letting them decide.  Instead of doing this, he and his Chancellor, George Osborne are becoming ever more outrageous in the claims and use of data.  Indeed, they are starting to make Tony Blair's 'dodgy dossier' look like a respectable, sober and credible document!


George Osborne, speaking when he established the Office of Budget Responsibility, said that the need for this organisation, independent of the the government, was because in the past, HM Treasury forecasts were found to be biased and dubious because of the political interference.  So when we see the drivel now emanating from Osborne's Treasury we know that we need to filter any forecasts through the prism of number manipulation so as to achieve a pre-determined outcome.  In other words, don't trust or set any store by what they say - they say what their master - George Osborne - wants them to say.

To close, another forecast.

David Cameron has said today, that the cost of Brexit could add £230 to the cost of a holiday in Europe, for a family of 4.  Of this is a 'could' rather than a 'would' and of course this figure is 'supported' by the usual dodgy statistics and calculations from the widely discredited forecasts publishers.  However, let's say that this time, the number is right, does £57.50 a head sound a high price to pay for the restoration of Britain's long-held democratic traditions?  Britain has paid a far, far higher price to defend its democracy, in the past.  A price in blood and lives, not in £ sterling.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the unelected 'President' of the European Commission, who hails from Luxembourg, has threatened the UK by saying that 'deserters' can expect no assistance from the EU.   Well Mr Juncker, I suggest that you hit the history books.  Go back to the history of the second World War.  In 1940, after the fall of EU members France, Belgium and Netherlands, at the hands of the Nazi hordes, Britain, aided by its colonies and Commonwealth allies, stood alone against the Nazis.  Britain didn't desert Europe's people in 1940 and we won't desert them now or in the future.  Brexit will provide a liberating example for those Europeans now trapped within an anti-democratic EU.  Brexit will allow those countries that suffered under post-war Soviet domination, to experience true freedom and democracy, when the inevitable collapse of the EU occurs.

£57.50 a head for freedom - bargain of the century - where do I send my money?

Vote Brexit, shake off the yoke of anti-democracy which is weighing us down and restore Britain's freedom

Well done Bibi

 The title says it all.  Well done to Benjamin Netanyahu on his success in the recent Israeli elections.

This victory was seemingly against the odds as domestic issues - the economy etc., - tended to predominate and the story was not good.  Also because, to America's shame, it seems that President Obama went out of his way to interfere in Israeli politics and to actively work against Netanyahu's re-election.

It must have really stuck in the craw, for Islam-loving Obama, to find his only non-Bibi choice was a party bearing the word Zionist in its name but he swallowed deep and followed his political teachings, where the end justifies the means.  Except that this time, his end wasn't met.  The people of Israel did not fear the wrath of Obama.  

I trust though, that they can now depend on the support of the US Congress, whom Bibi just recently addressed.  The rumour-mill has it that in retaliation or more accurately, in a fit of childish pique, Obama will now change the US' stance at the United Nations and withdraw the previously solid and constant support for Israel.  

And why is Obama doing this?  

Well it is of course because Obama is looking to seal an agreement with Iran.  He sees this as an opportunity for a legacy.  His flagship Affordable Care Act or Obamacare as it is better known, is a miserable failure.  This will end-up being repealed wholly or in part, in the next administration. The American people are seeing through the pack of lies on which it was passed.  Not least because the people that passed it and their union backers have claimed exemptions  for themselves.  It's funny how Americans whose ancestors threw off the 'yoke of a monarchy' now have to endure an elected monarchy that sets one rule for the people and then sets themselves above those same rules.  Not so much 'let them eat cake' as let them eat higher insurance premiums'!

Benjamin Netanyahu understands that the deal being mooted, is a bad deal.  In this he is supported by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, who recognise the threat posed by a nuclear armed Iran.  This isn't just an existential threat to Israel.  Iran is developing Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).  The clue to their target is in the name - intercontinental.  The target is of course, the 'Great Satan' itself, the USA.  Once again, Obama is seen to be jeopardising the safety of America and Americans.  His swapping of the 5 Taliban terrorists for the deserter Bowe Bergdahl was another example. 

Obama has pussy-footed around on Syria and ISIS and in part has allowed ISIS its successes because it serves his anti-Israel and anti-America aims.  It has been left to the courageous Peshmerga forces of Kurdistan to offer any real opposition to the murderous Islamic State - which Obama still insists, isn't  Islamic!  The Peshmerga have been collecting arms from European countries but isn't being supported by the USA.  Obama prefers instead, to put minimal resources into training (again) the Iraqi army controlled by Baghdad.  This is the same army that is being supported by murderous Shia-Muslim militias.  These same militias, in recent activity, went into Sunni-Muslim tribal areas, previously controlled by ISIS and then started massacring local Sunnis.  Obama and the Baghdad government know, absolutely know, that the defeat and annihilation of ISIS in Southern Iraq, is very dependent  upon the support of Sunnis but that didn't stop them from letting the militias loose.  Is there any wonder that the Kurds want to take Mosul and Kirkuk themselves rather than leave it to the butchers from Baghdad?

It seems clear to this non-American observer, that Obama is working against the interest of the USA and its allies (sadly, a dwindling band) and it is now incumbent on the US Congress, in addition to providing support to Israel, to commence impeachment proceedings against Obama and should at the same time, use existing congressional mechanisms to de-fund Obamacare and other anti-American and anti-free enterprise legislation that has been recently passed.

Be clear, America and the World cannot successfully survive another two years of this very dangerous White House.

Do Americans still have courage? 

Be afraid !

Reports from Tripoli, Libya state that eleven commercial airplanes have been stolen.  At any time, knowing of such a theft in what is effectively a failed state,  would be worrying, however, coming so close to the 9/11 anniversary, this must be considered very concerning.

Of course the principal targets would likely be Western - so mainly US, UK or French interests but Egypt and Israel can't sleep easy, knowing of this theft, either.  Neither can Baghdad, Tehran or Jeddah be off their guard.  It is not known which of the multiple terror organisations or militias have taken these planes so the targets are unknown.  Given the random nature of the mindless violence that terrorists visit upon people, maybe knowing which group stole what plane might not even make any difference! 

There remains the possibility that these planes were stolen for the reasons usually given for thievery - I saw it there and thought I could steal it and sell it to feed my drug habit, or something like that - but I just don't see this as a crime of opportunity!  11 trained pilots and probably co-pilots and navigators just happen to be passing Tripoli airport during a battle between two factions and decide ' Hey, while all this is going on, why don't we steal those planes and then fence them, later on?  Yes, of course they are fueled and ready, let's go!

This issue is very worrying on two counts. 

The act itself leaves many of us and our loved ones, vulnerable to the actions of madmen who seem to think human life of little or no value.  People who would fly a plane into a building and not be worried about the ensuing death.

Equally concerning though, is the lack of any noise or activity from the media.  I know that the American MSM try to avoid all Libya stories because, whisper it very quietly, that is kind of, like, Benghazi territory and no one can speak of that, lest it tarnish the reputation of the sainted Obama and blessed Hillary!  But hey!  There are eleven commercial passenger planes missing and there is every likelihood that these are now in the hands of terrorists.  That should really concern us all and all of the posturing that is coming and to come from the NATO summit, will mean nothing if these planes are flown against civilian targets.

We face a more than usual uncertain future until this risk is eliminated.

Obama's friends

If you are not a Ukranian, consider yourself very lucky, as you wake up, this morning. 

Ukranians have President Obama as a friend and ally.  They know how lucky that is, because you can always count on a friend, right?

Except........

When that friend is President Obama.

Germany counted the USA and most particularly President Obama, as a friend.  Remember that big Obama love-fest before he was elected as President?  The one where he had the rock-star stage?  That was in Germany. 

So how does Obama repay this adulation?  Well his security services, in the relentless pursuit of America's terrorist enemies, bug the phone of German Chancellor Merkel.  Now Merkel, having grown-up in the old East Germany, probably knows a thing or two about being bugged, so she is unlikely to have said too much that was incriminating, on any of the calls that Obama's spies listened-in to.  Or maybe she did.  Maybe she thought, friends don't spy on friends.  Hmm!

So to Ukraine.  President Obama and his ineffectual Secretary of State, John Kerry, are threatening all sorts of sanctions against Russia.  Now call me naive but what was the result of ever increasing sanctions against Iran?  Oh yes!  Iran is currently enjoying a sanctions vacation, courtesy of the Obama administration and still able to pursue its goal of obtaining a nuclear capability.  Iran's number one enemy after the USA?  Israel, another friend of the USA that is being treated to Obama's own, very special, interpretation of friendship.

President Hosni Mubarak also thought of America and Obama as a friend and then his friend 'threw him under a Muslim Brotherhood bus!

Take it closer to home.  Christopher Stevens was appointed US Ambassador to Libya by President Obama and the then Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.  It would be wrong to question the naivete of a person that cannot defend themselves, but surely Stevens could have done some homework on Clinton.  She was thrown off of the Watergate inquiry because of her having a very loose affiliation with the truth - that should have made him wary.  However, in Stevens' defence he probably thought that he could rely on his friends in Washington and the White House.  That didn't work out so well though! 

The US consulate in Benghazi was attacked by well-armed militants and Stevens and three other  US personnel were brutally killed.  Even in death though, Obama and Clinton's special notion  of what friendship means, had to be played out.  So the airwaves rang-out with stories of a spontaneous mob that were protesting about a video.  This mob were so spontaneous, they came very well armed, including carrying Rocket Propelled Grenades because that's kind of spontaneous, right?  Then Obama and Clinton go through the public expressions of sympathy that is called for, when 'friends' are taken from us.  Except, we have since learned, this was for show.  As said this was no spontaneous demonstration.  This was a well-planned attack and it was sustained but in a stunning display of friendship, Obama ordered the military to stand down and not to go to the aid of the beleaguered consulate.  Indeed, if the twittersphere is to be believed, the US General in charge, in that theatre of operations, was relieved of his command when he indicated an intention to send military personnel to rescue Americans that were in danger. 

I don't know about you but Obama's idea of friendship doesn't match anything that I recognise.

So back to the poor Ukranians.  If you believe in karma and that sort of stuff, then Ukraine must have been really bad in a former life.  In addition to having the highly dubious honour of the friendship of Obama they also have the European Union as an ally.  Now if you want to know how the European Union treats its friends, consider how it treated Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy during the recent economic crisis.  Ask the people of Cyprus, that saw their life savings stolen at the whim of the EU, if they think this was the act of a friend. 

Say what you like about the United Kingdom but when Ireland needed help, the UK provided it - because that's how friends treat friends!  Of course there was likely some self-interest involved but still!

If I was a political leader in any of the current hot-spots, I would be seriously reconsidering my country's friendship with the USA.  If I was the president if the Philippines, would I really believe that my American 'friends' would come to my aid, if the Chinese continued their South China Sea expansionist activity?

In closing, I need to bring some balance to this piece.  Plainly the foregoing is somewhat slanted against Obama and just shows how he mis-treats his friends.  In truth though it isn't always that way.  The successful investor, Warren Buffet is a big supporter of Obama.  This is one friend that Obama does consider or so it would seem.  The Keystone Pipeline Phase 4 has been awaiting US government approval for all of Obama's presidency but this can has been repeatedly kicked down the road and no decision made.  One  has to wonder if the fact that Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway group owns the rail company called Burlington Northern, has anything to do with it.  Is it a coincidence that BN rail cars are currently transporting the oil that would otherwise flow through the pipeline?  If I was on 'Who wants to be a millionaire' I would have to 'ask a friend' but I would make sure that it wasn't America's president!

Yes, if I was a Ukranian, I would be seriously considering what friendship means!

 





   

2013 Culture Review

Well, the title sounds grand!

Building on last year's review of books, I wanted to share the following:

Books
Last year I got heavily into Jack Reacher novels, by Lee Child and found them to be  quite engrossing but then, at the end of 2012, a movie was made of one of them.  Tom Cruise was cast as Jack Reacher.  Cruise's production company having apparently bought the rights.  If you have read any of the Reacher books you will have the same difficulty that I have in squaring the idea of Reacher portrayed by the diminutive Cruise.  In some books, Reacher's size - height 6' 6'' and weight 240 lbs, is actually an integral part of the plot lines so I find it hard to acquaint the visual film reality with the written variety.  Consequently, I have struggled with these books this year.   They are still well-written and gripping but...........  the image of the sofa-jumper keeps interrupting my enjoyment.

Best book read this year was Arguably by Christopher Hitchens.  This is a compilation of the late author's reviews and shows the depth and breadth of his knowledge.  Oh to be able to write like that!  If you love America and it's history, I strongly recommend this.

Also if you love America, I re-read Decision Points by George W Bush -  a fascinating read, which puts the lie to much of the media distortions.

Finally, Hiding the decline by A W Montford.  This was a Christmas gift that was truly enjoyed.  This book explores the ClimateGate e-mail saga and exposes the so-called climate change experts for the lying charlatans that they are.  A powerful book which clinically dissects the story and then onto the cover-ups, that were said to be investigations.  If you value truth, do find the time to read this book.

Films
Perseverance and patience is always recommended and I am glad I listened to this advice.  I saw two 2nd parts of trilogies this year.

Part two of the Hunger Games series was considerably better than the first part.  Gets one a little closer to some of the grim reality of the books and is promising nicely for the third and final part.

The middle part of The Hobbit was also better than the first part and is building well for the finale.  I saw this with family, as part of a newish tradition that has taken in all of the Lord of the Rings trilogy  on successive Christmas' past.  Generally the external reviews were mixed but from the family all on the positive side but there is a feeling that the whole thing was perhaps longer than it needed to be.

TV Series
Enjoyed House of Cards - US.  As with the original from the UK  this shows the everyday venality of politicians and their fellow travelers.  Also watched Hannibal series one.  Gory but a fascinating back-story for this fictional monster.

Syria - The Vote! Questions for the Syrian opposition.

Well done to the UK Parliament! 

The opposition of the Labour Party to the UK Coalition government's motion was entirely predictable.  Though the performance of Labour's leader, Ed Miliband, lacked any passion and consisted of more froth than a bad latte! 

What was very encouraging, indeed heartening, was the 30 Tory MPs that voted against their own government.  And, to be fair,the 9 Lib Dem MPs who did the same.

Here is my 'take' on Syria and those chemical weapon attacks.

At best the House of Commons vote was premature.  The UN inspection team has not yet reported on the latest attacks but the UK and US government have both jumped-in and stated that they know this is the work of the Assad regime. 

Consider though, what did the Assad regime have to gain by such an action?  By most accounts, the regime were in the ascendancy in the civil war.  The fractious 'rebels' had been indulging in internecine squabbling and murder within the areas that they controlled and their lack of a serious 'government in waiting' (more in a moment on this) as well as seeming, at times, more focused on gaining localised advantages (see the stories about the attacks on Syria's non-Shiite people) rather than on regime change surely must put on the table the possibility that it was the 'rebels' that carried out the attacks. 

Just think about it!  They are losing.  They have heard the ever more foolish Obama speak of 'red lines', they have heard France's Hollande and Britain's Cameron and Hague talk of the need to stop the carnage caused by the Assad regime (the deaths caused by the 'rebels' somehow are always overlooked), so what to do?  How about finding a means to convince the world that the 'red lines' have been crossed?  A way to suck in the media obsessed Obama with shots of children, suffering hideously, on TV

In a dirty war such as Syria, no bets are off of the table.  And frankly, I would be very sceptical of any evidence produced by either side or the UN.  Everything is tainted. 

The 'rebels', heavily infiltrated by Al Qaeda, know the value of dragging-in the 'West', both in the short term by bolstering their own failing military efforts and in the medium/longer term in showing the 'infidel West' as forever interfering in the region and pursuing a pro-Israel policy etc.. 

The Assad regime is of course, beyond the Pale.  Their subjugation of their own people and inhumane treatment, has been going on for years though.  David Cameron alleges that this latest chemical attack was number eleven, by the Syrian government, on its own people.  So why did the previous ten  attacks not warrant action or comment? 

I don't have the 'answer' to Syria but I do believe that military intervention by the 'West' will be akin to pouring petrol onto a fire rather than water. 

The 'water' needed must come from the Russian inspired political process which seeks to get people talking rather than killing.  It is galling that the odious Putin is leading the right way for a resolution!  That though is one outcome of Syria.  Strange bed-fellows abound.  Just look at the Syrian 'rebels'.  This includes people and groups who have a long history of opposition to Assad and to his father, before him.  Then you have the allegedly religiously inspired jihadists who are happy to latch on to any cause that promotes their ideal of foment and religious cleansing as well as an anti-West agenda.  These groups include Al Qaeda and its affiliates.  However, this opposition is fractured and is struggling to come together to present a united front and to coalesce around an agreed negotiating team and policy.  Exactly what do the 'rebels' want?  Obviously, the overthrow of Assad but then?  

So Obama feeds those 'conspiracy nuts' by allying the US with a group that includes the people responsible for the 9/11 attacks!   Allowing the likes of the, surely certifiably mad, British MP George Galloway, to make mendacious statements which nevertheless have a patina of plausibility.  And all the time, Obama, the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, is preparing for war - and make no mistake, the USA unilaterally attacking Syria, will be a declaration of war, there will be no cover of a UN resolution, no 'coalition of the willing', indeed, since Obama isn't even consulting the US Congress, no local democratic mandate.

I find it incredibly ironic that the Nobel Committee manages to give the Peace Prize to both Obama and later the European Union and both are increasingly belligerent as regards Syria.  To say the prize is devalued by such is to forget that Yasser Arafat was also a recipient!

So 'jaw jaw not war war' wins the day in the UK.  And, at a fundamental level, despite David Cameron's short term 'discomfort' (as it will be portrayed by the Labour Party and their media allies), democracy, in the UK is stronger today!

Well done to the Thirty and the Nine!

Incidentally, opinion polls suggested that public support for military intervention, in both the UK and USA was found to be 11%

Over to you, President Obama and the US Congress!