Showing posts with label Portugal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Portugal. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Europe's failure and Obama's exceptionalism

I recently started to post on a daily basis, a review of the news, with my own particular slant on it.
Observant readers will notice I haven't managed to do this for a few days.  Don't worry, it is a specially heavy workload that has got to me, not the forces of evil!

Also, there really hasn't been that much 'new' in the news.

We continue to hear weasel words from politicians that talk tough but in reality do little.

President Obama likes to think he is exceptional.  Certainly his description of the horrors perpetrated in Paris, by Islamic extremists, as a 'setback' puts him into a particularly 'exceptional' class.  He is unable to even call the terrorists, Islamic.  He did the same when describing the Fort Hood massacre, carried out by a Muslim, who claimed to be a jihadi, as an incident of 'workplace violence'.

President Obama, is very largely alone in his denial and refusal to call these terrorists, Islamic.  The 'twitterati' insist that is because he is of the Muslim faith.  Certainly he has spent a great deal of time with Muslims - spending part of his youth in Muslim Indonesia, could well have guided him on his faith path - but I think that it goes deeper than that.  In my view his upbringing, which was centered on the Communist way, embedded in him, a deep hatred of the West and America in particular and he cannot bring himself to berate people who share his views.  I know that may sound extreme but listen to his speeches and he regularly talks about what he sees as  'the ills of America' and the West.  His words are not too far dissimilar from those of the leaders of Daesh and Al Qaeda and Boko Haram and the Shining Path and other anti-West terrorists organisation.

Paris is starting to return to normal, or at least the new normal.  A state of emergency is in place and French troops patrol the streets and landmark properties.
Brussels, the capital of Belgium and the principal seat of the European Parliament, has been in lock-down for days.
The British shamefully dither about whether or not to extend bombing to Daesh targets, in Syria, while at the same time, thinking that getting Islamists, who are returning from fighting for Daesh, to attend 'de-radicalisation' classes, will somehow solve the fifth column problem.
Ultra-Liberal Sweden is now enjoying the fruits of its ever-open door for immigrants while becoming the 'rape' capital of Europe.  Maybe,  inviting in all of those unaccompanied men, who vastly predominate in the 'refugee' population, it is not entirely a surprise that Sweden has a new 'achievement'.
Meanwhile, very belatedly, fences are starting to go up and the Schengen agreement is falling to pieces.  It is impossible to justify open borders, when their very openness invites in people who have no qualms about murdering their hosts.  And these people who are often aided and abetted by local co-religionists.

For Belgians it must be particularly galling that having opened their country to wave after wave of immigrants and turning a blind eye, while within these hordes some used Belgium as an operational base, they are now experiencing the effects of their laissez faire policies being visited upon their own doorsteps.

The same could be said of Sweden.  This is a country that has always been very open to 'refugees' and now the local population are finding themselves swamped.  Not widely reported in the media, it seems that some (many?) Swedes have had enough and there are signs of rising resentment with refugee centres being fire-bombed and so on.

All the while, the European Union goes on its merry, expensive and ineffectual way.  Germany's Angela Merkel is quieter these days as she is reeling from the backlash unleashed by her idiotic 'we will take you all in' invitation.  So into the breach, steps the unelected Jean-Claude Juncker.  For non-European readers, he is the non-entity that is the President of the European Commission, who was selected by EU leaders.  He is a former Prime Minister of Luxembourg, so you have an adequate sense of his experience on the world stage!

Meanwhile, in the background, Greece is still teetering on the economic brink and Portugal is dallying with a government that has a plurality and is anti-austerity and very much opposed to the EU/IMF/World Bank austerity.

Maybe there is some new news, after all!

To Americans, have a safe and peaceful Thanksgiving holiday.
        

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Europe - too little, too late


Given the continuing crisis in Europe, I must, once again, return to the subject.

Belatedly, EU politicians are coming to the realisation that the best way to tackle the issue of Syrian refugees, is to do so, at, or close to source.  So they are talking about granting further aid to Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey.  This will certainly help – indeed, this is the policy that has been advocated by the British government – a policy for which the liberal left and EU elite castigated Cameron’s government.
However, this solution only has the opportunity to address the Syrian element.  Many of the swarm of people now invading Europe’s soft underbelly, come from places other than Syria.  They come from Iraq – even though many areas of Iraq are under government rather than Daesh control.  They come from Eritrea – presumably these are in opposition to the government?  They come from Pakistan and Bangladesh, from Somalia and Ethiopia, Nigeria and Kenya .    These people are getting swept-up in the mass and all are being labelled as ‘refugees’   Plainly that is wrong but the EU solution does nothing to address this. 
Nor does it do anything to address the mass of immigrants that are seeking to illegally enter Europe, from Libya.   So hard luck Italy – Germany finally feels imperilled by the swarm coming in from the south-east and so action must be taken.  France is feeling destabilised by these immigrants and so, to hell with the Italians.

Donald Tusk, President of the European Council (being a European position, quite naturally, unelected), laid out the new policy last night, after long talks with EU member states.  These talks followed on from the issue of a ‘diktat’ from the European Union that forces most of these ‘sovereign’ nations to accept a quota of immigrants (a few countries, the UK among them, are not affected because they have an opt-out).    There has to be a strong question mark over whether or not any of these nations can really continue to be called ‘sovereign’, especially when they can be forced to accept policies that they very clearly don’t want to.

Consider also, that Spain has been told it must accept 19,219 migrants.  Portugal must take 4,775.  That is the same Spain with unemployment currently standing at more than 22% and youth unemployment at more than 48%.  The same Portugal with unemployment at close to 12% and youth unemployment of more than 31%.  So these already suffering and impoverished countries must accept people who will naturally be an immediate and long term welfare burden.

Tusk and the EU elite have come to the realisation that they must undo the effects of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s at best naïve, and certainly very stupid open invitation to ‘refugees’.  Merkel’s invitation has been likened to those teenagers that post a ‘party at my house, tonight’ notice on FaceBook or Twitter and then wonder why hundreds or thousands of people turn-up.

Tusk advised people that it is time to ‘correct the policy of open doors and windows’   He also warned that the greater part of the tide (is that the Polish word for swarm?) was yet to come!
The EU will also need to strengthen its borders, according to Tusk.  Yes, that’s right, the EU needs to do the very thing that Hungary has been so pilloried for.  Hungary builds a fence – very bad.  EU builds fences in border states, including Hungary – that’s okay!  A fiction writer wouldn’t be believed if he or she wrote such stuff!  I suppose though, that is the price that is paid, when a nation surrenders its sovereignty.
 
Memo to SkyNews and BBCNews – Maybe do some background checks on those Syrian professionals that you interview?  Yes they can appear quite eloquent and well-spoken but maybe ask yourself  how, in what Sky and the BBC insist is an oppressive regime, led by Assad, did they manage to have such a very good, middle class lifestyle?  Were they maybe, until very recently, staunch supporters of the regime, who have ‘read the writing on the wall’ and are getting out, with their wealth, before Assad falls?  Wouldn’t that make them economic migrants rather than refugees

One intriguing prospect of the EU’s crass mishandling of the migrant invasion is that this is seriously strengthening the hand of the Brexit  campaign.  What kind of country would Britain be, if Eurocrats and ministers from other EU countries can simply dictate how many immigrants a company must take?  What kind of a country would Britain be if its borders were to be protected, not by  its own troops and border services but by an EU Border Force (the creation of this supra-national body is the latest idea out the EU Project)   One has to wonder if this is by some kind of design.  Has Brussels and Berlin decided that the British can never be ‘brought to heel’ (history should have been a good guide here!) and so the only way that the Euro-Project can progress, is without the UK.  Have the Germans and EU elite spoken to Obama’s US administration and reached an understanding to isolate the UK?  Will they be ‘bigging up’ Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP, so as to create division within the UK?

Watch this space!


 

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Scotland, Debt and Ratings


The recent action by Standard & Poor's, to downgrade the sovereign debt of certain EU countries prompts me to look at the ratings of all EU members.

Getting accurate data on UK GDP, by region has proven difficult but the Scottish Government reckoned that in 2009 it was £143.8 Billion, which is around 10% of the total UK economy.

Making the, I believe reasonable assumption that an independent Scotland would take on its share of the National Debt relative to its position in the UK economy, would suggest a debt level of £114.9 Billion.  This would still equate to 80% of GDP.

As to ratings.  Only time will tell but I offer Finland and Portugal as possible guides.

Finland
The population is 5.3 Million - close to the Scottish 5.2 million.  The GDP is  .£149.6 Billion

Word of warning though.  It achieves a AAA rating mainly because its public sector deficit 2.5% and its Public Debt is 48%.

Portugal 


The population is 10.6 Million.  The GDP is  £143.3 Billion which is close to that of Scotland..

Word of warning though.  It achieves a BB Junk bond rating mainly because its public sector deficit 9.1% and its Public Debt is 93%.

It is difficult to estimate what would be the Public Sector deficit of an independent Scotland and current data doesn't support analysis because National Debt is considered 'national' and not apportioned to the constituent parts of the Union.

It would probably be wrong to infer that because, according to the Scottish Office GERS report, Scottish Tax Revenue is  £48.1 Billion and Expenditure is £62.1 Billion, that an independent Scotland would run a Public Sector deficit of £14.0 Billion or 29%

I don't think it would be too far fetched though to say that the Scottish sacred cow, that is the public sector would have to be reduced.

Oh! I don't say that the rump UK credit rating would automatically survive as AAA post Scottish independence.  Frankly I think we are fortunate to still have ours, today but given the socialist history of Scotland and a large consensus towards welfare and public spending, I suspect that a post independent Scotland government would be obliged, in the interim at least, to continue on its already unaffordable spending pathway. 

Member States




GDP Sterling in Billions Public Debt as % of GDP Deficit 2010 S&P Rating





 Germany £2,074.0 83% -3.3% AAA
 France £1,604.2 82% -7.0% AA+
 United Kingdom £1,408.2 80% -10.4% AAA
Scotland including N Sea Oil  Estimate £143.8 80%
???
UK Without Scotland   Delta between Eurostat and Scottish Gov. £1,264.0 80% ???
 Italy £1,285.5 119% -4.6%    BBB+
 Spain £882.0 60% -9.2%    A
 Netherlands £490.9 63% -5.4%    AAA
 Poland £294.1 55% -7.9%    A
 Belgium £292.9 97% -4.1%    AA
 Sweden £287.7 40% 0.0%    AAA
 Austria £236.1 72%   -4.6%     AA+
 Denmark £194.2 44% -2.7%     AAA
 Greece £191.0 143% -10.5%   BB Junk
 Finland £149.6 48% -2.5%   AAA
 Portugal £143.3 93% -9.1%   BB Junk
 Ireland £127.8 96% -32.4%   BBB+
 Czech Republic £120.4 39% -4.7%   AA
 Romania £101.2 31% -6.1%   BB+
 Hungary £81.7 80% -4.2%   BB+
 Slovakia £54.7 41% -7.9%   A
 Luxembourg £34.5 18% -1.7%   AAA
 Bulgaria £29.9 16% -3.2%   BBB+
 Slovenia £29.9
-5.6%   A+
 Lithuania £22.8 34% -7.1%   BBB+
 Latvia £14.9 45% -7.7%   BB+
 Cyprus £14.5 61% -5.3%   BB+
 Estonia £12.0 7% 1.0%   AA-
 Malta £5.2 68% -3.6%   A-






GDP, Debt and Deficits based on information from Eurostat








Scotland GDP is based on Scottish Government estimate as of 2009. - Wikipedia






Scotland Debt is based on Total UK debt of  £1,126.5  80% of UK GDP
Multiplied by Scotland share of UK GDP 10.2%

Equals
£114.9


Relative to GDP stays at 
80%















Something to ponder and comment?