News November 9

Comment on today's news.

Corbyn and the Armed Services
Jeremy Corbyn is upset that the Chief of Military Staff has entered into 'politics' by saying that the Uk bombing Daesh in Iraq but not tracking back and bombing them in Syria is foolish and lacking in sense.  Also that having a Prime Minister who has very publicly stated he won't push the UK's nuclear button under any circumstances, is dangerous (as well, in my view as just plain silly).

Corbyn's right that the military shouldn't be involved in politics we can see the negative side of that in the flawed elections in Burma.  However, who better to provide a reasonably impartial viewpoint on the situation in Syria and Iraq, than a non-politician.  We all know how politicians trim their sails and are more interested in soundbites than hard facts.  I have a little more faith in the people that take the decisions to send our service personnel into harms way than in flip-flopping politicians.

It would, of course, been better if the comments had been made by other politicians.  Not just Conservatives but also those in the Labour Party who still believe that the UK has the moral right to defend itself.

Burma elections
Not really sure how to consider these.  On the one hand, the Burmese people have an opportunity to exercise their democratic right but just how democratic is that right?  Nobel Peace Prize winner, Aung San Suu Kyi, cannot be elected as President (this election will come, early next year)  because she has foreign born sons!  The military has a constitutionally-guaranteed 25% of the seats in parliament.  To amend the constitution, a constitution that was written by the military, requires a 75% or more majority!  Hundreds of thousands of the minority Rohingya muslims have been denied the right to vote.    So, a step in the right direction but still quite a way to go.

Osborne agrees 30% spending cuts with four government departments.
Before you jump-up and shout 'about time', consider that these cuts are over the next four years.

The departments are, transport, local government, environment and Osborne's own treasury.  So not the big spenders like health and welfare or the already over-cut defence department.

Apparently, these cuts will be in the order of 8% a year for each of the next four years.   I have written here before that departmental budgets need to be subjected to cuts of 15% a year and the complete closure of the environment department.  My opinion hasn't changed but given the worsening global economic situation, I am not sure that 15% cuts would be enough!

When you hear the Conservatives crowing about deficit cutting and Labour and the SNP's howling about austerity, bear in mind that all that is potentially happening, is that the UK is trying to start to live within its means.  The massive debt mountain £1.5 trillion still sits above the UK economy and acts as a huge burden on future generations.  I would advise large pinches of salt to be taken but am not sure what is the latest health scare news position.

Remembrance Sunday One
Caught-up with some of this on TV news.  It wasn't widely commemorated, as far as I could ascertain, in Erbil, Kurdistan.

We should be heartened that so many young people seem to have managed to throw off the PC teaching of the education system and recognise the contribution and sacrifice made by so many of our fellow-countrymen and our allies.

While the young continue to show respect to these heroes, we have hope!

Remembrance Sunday Two
That man Corbyn again!

Would it really have hurt him so much, to bow his head, when laying his poppy wreath?  A barely perceptible nod in the direction of the Cenotaph, simply isn't good enough.  Yet another sign of his dislike of Britain and the British.

I know I shouldn't be surprised by the actions of an active supporter of the murderous IRA but surely there is at least one grown-up remaining, at the Labour Party?
    
Refugees
Have you noticed that this issue is sliding down the news programmes?  With the onset of bad weather in the region (Erbil is currently experiencing quite severe winds and rains), we might see a halting or at least a serious curtailment, of the numbers of people crossing the Mediterranean.

Maybe these people will now look to what is on their own doorsteps?  Given that Summer suns will be replaced by Winter cold, rain and snow maybe these 'refugees' will head towards Saudi Arabia and seek asylum or at least refuge in the massive tent city that is sitting at Mecca.

We can but hope.

Clearly, the appetite in Europe, where it was previously positive, has fast turned against the swarm of people that are invading.  Who knows, given Angela Merkel's support for a completely open door policy, is now being rapidly rowed back from, Merkel's own position is said to be in jeopardy.  Merkel losing her job?  We can but hope.

 

Budget advice for Osborne

When the last Labour government left office (doesn't that sound great - last Labour government), they left three things for the incoming Conservative administration.   A very significant deficit and debt position, a massive £600Bn PFI burden for future generations and a note from the Chief Secretary to the Treasury advising 'there's no money left'.  The latter was at least honest but, as can be expected by Labour, the financial position did not inhibit them making wild spending promises in their 2010 General Election manifesto.

They also left something else.  Some ticking time-bombs in their last and penultimate budgets.  This included the imposition of a 50% top rate of tax.  This was supposed to only be for one year - that was the Labour position, when in power, but then it flipped to them wanting it in place for ever. Same old Labour - lies and hypocrisy!

So, some advice for George Osborne as he puts the finishing touches to the pre-election budget that he will deliver, next week.

Lay-out the Conservative agenda regarding taxes and spending and put these in the budget package so that they can be enshrined in law and present whichever party wins the imminent election, with a clear path forward.  If the proposals are defeated, maybe because of lack of support from the Lib Dems, then this will provide clear evidence of the tax, tax, tax desires of the opponents.

National Insurance - In order to promote the hiring of under 25s, abolish NI contributions for both employees and employers.  All parties make regular speeches talking of the need to reduce youth unemployment, so this should have no opposition - unless it's just lip service that is being paid.

Tax thresholds for OAPs.  It is plainly wrong to overtax people who have made provision for their retirement - either through pensions or savings or both.  So for all pensioners, increase the tax free allowance to £15,000 for the first £30,000 of income.  Then on income over £30,000, reduce the allowance so that for every £1 of income, the allowance is reduced by £2 until the tax free allowance of £12,500 is reached.

Tax Rates for OAPs.  Reduce the rate of tax for OAPs  to 15% on first £30,000, 30% on next £20,000 and then 40% on anything remaining.

Tax thresholds for other workers.  Increase personal allowance to £12,000 for the tax year 2015/2016 and then to £13,250 for 2016/2017 and £14,500 for 2017/2018 and £15,500 for 2018/2019 and £17,000 for tax year 2019/2020.  

Tax rates for other workers.  Reduce the basic rate of tax to 15% and the 40% rate to 38% and commit to reducing this to 36% in 2016/2017, to 34% in 2017/2018, 20 32% in 2018/2019 and 30% in 2019/2020.  Commit to abolishing the 45% rate with effect from the 2017/2018 tax year.

Non-Dom taxes - Increase the Autumn Statement announced charge from £90,000 to £150,000 in 2015/2016 and £200,000 in 2016/2017 and then £300,000 in 2017/2018.

Tax on High value homes owned by companies -  Increase the Autumn Statement announced charge from 50% above inflation to 100% in 2015/2016 and 200% above inflation in 2016/2017 and then 300% above inflation in 2017/2018.

Inheritance Tax threshold and rates - Increase the threshold from £325,000 to £500,000 with effect from 2015/2016 and to £650,000 with effect from 2017/2018 and then £750,000 from 2019/2020.  Impose a flat rate of 25% on any estate in excess of these thresholds.  Exempt all military personnel and Police, Fire and Ambulance personnel that die while on or as a result of being on, active service.

Eliminate the so called Green Taxes - these serve only to put subsidy money into the hands of rich landowners and in the process, impoverish our people.

Then to pay for this,  don't spend, don't spend, don't spend.

Reduce all budgets, across the board by 15%, with the sole exception of defence, with further cuts of 3% for the remaining life of the next parliament.  For defence, meet the commitment to get this to 2% of GDP, and then retain as this level, from 2016/2017.

The astute and economically competent will recognise that even with 15% cuts the budget won't be balanced.  So the ring-fence around NHS and Education expenditure has to be removed and these departments must contribute to the overall reduction in the reach of government.  In order to perhaps mitigate the impact on the 'blessed' NHS consider making the reduction in Local Government expenditure 20% instead of 15%.  That will be bad news for those councils that want to continue their outreach programmes for LGBT unemployed or single mothers but the whole thrust of the budget and Conservative policy must be to recognise that working people must be able to retain more of their money rather than it being taking by the government.

Abolish, completely and utterly, the Department for the Environment and Climate Change.

Also to assist the NHS, ensure that it is clear that the government will not stand as the lender of last resort behind any NHS Trust that, for example was to declare itself insolvent and unable to meet its onerous PFI payments but that were such to occur, the government would immediately intervene to establish an alternative NHS Trust which would not accept the PFI liabilities of its predecessor organisation.

Finally bring MPs back in line with the people that they represent by making the expenses that they receive, taxable, just as they are for all other 'hard-working people'.  I have never heard an explanation of why MPs should be treated differently to ordinary people!  No doubt, being taken down from the lofty levels to which they have elevated themselves,  this will upset some MPs but all MPs must first and foremost recognise that they are servants of the people not their rulers.

2015 - Prospects and ....

I couldn't think of a word for the other aspect of what we face in 2015 but maybe by the end of this we will have it.

Prospects first then.

The new US Congress convenes in January and has a Republican majority in both houses.  I think that has the prospect of being a good thing.  The newly elected members will join incumbents but critically, these 'newbies' will bring with them a clear mandate from the electorate.  Change is needed in Washington.  That means that Congress needs to clean-up its act.  Less 'pork-barrel' politics and more 'American' policies.  Policies that will start to restore America in the eyes of its friends and its foes.

'American' policies?  Well that means no amnesty for a start.  It is 'American' to emigrate to the USA via legal routes not by hopping over the border accompanied by disease-ridden narco-gang members and others who believe that laws are meant for someone else.

So, no Amnesty and a clear statement to the Department of Homeland Security - Congress will de-fund you if you do not secure the border - that's the Southern border, in case you don't know which one.  Congress will de-fund HS if you don't start deporting, in significant numbers all of those illegal immigrants that entered the US during 2014 and then work backwards, year by year.  Who knows?  In the process you may well come across some Al Qaeda  or ISIS terrorists, on the way.  It's a pretty safe bet that some used the chaos that Obama created on the border, to infiltrate the country.

Again, no Amnesty.  Can't say it often enough.

Obamacare will really kick-in in 2015 and it is the duty of Congress to start the process of repeal and then accelerate so that this is done by the end of 2015 and America enters the 2016 election year with a clear choice between Democrats (who voted the ACA through without even reading it!) and want to reinstate it and with Republicans who oppose such socialistic but more importantly unworkable legislation.

Spending has to be reduced.  The people get it but clearly Speaker John Boehner doesn't.  Obama  has always been a lost cause.  Indeed, the same can be said of all Democrats.  Margaret Thatcher once said 'the trouble with Socialists is that eventually they run out of other people's money to spend' and that is where today, America finds itself.  So as well as spending needing to be drastically reduced, Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell must be replaced.  Rep. Trey Gowdy and Senator Ted Cruz or Senator Mike Lee would seem to be candidates that best represent the views of the Republican voters.

Spending reductions are also a prospect for British voters - though, (and this is where that .... creeps in) there is every prospect that the parties in the upcoming General Election will fall over themselves to offer money Britain doesn't have and hasn't earned as electoral bribes.  They don't call it 'pork-barrel' in the UK but the result is the same - unaffordable spending fueled by debt.

A gloomy prospect (there's that ...... again) is that the Scottish Nationalists (SNP)  may hold the balance of power and strike an underhand deal with Labour surrounding yet more transfer of powers to the devolved Scottish Parliament.  It is unbelievable but no less true that the SNP who so solidly lost the Scottish Indpendence Referendum now face the prospect of being the major Scottish influence at Westminster.  It says everything about Labour and their woeful leader, Ed Miliband, that we come to this pass.

Incidentally, while we are on the subject of the SNP, how on earth can they possibly be in the ascendancy when they made such huge play about an independent Scotland's prospects but all based on oil at the 'conservatively' set price of $113/bbl.  Oil is currently half that price and all commentators see oil at greater than $100 no time in the near future!

With Labour and the SNP squeezing on one side the Conservatives face the grim prospect of losing power as they are also being assailed from UKIP.  I think that the electorate distrust the Conservatives on Europe and I can't help but have a sneaking suspicion that the Conservatives wouldn't mind losing the election so that the question of an EU referendum becomes someone elses responsibility/headache.

If the Conservatives do regain power, it will likely be to lead a minority government.  That though doesn't preclude the greatest prospect which is deep and meaningful cuts in UK public spending.  This is long overdue and I sense would receive strong support from the working population, if it was properly presented showing the choice between further indebtedness and future impoverishment and an affordable future for Britain and its children.

Back to prospects and  for the first time in a long time,  Europe and immigration will likely be 'front and centre' in the UK General Election and there is every prospect that contra-opinions to those of the metropolitan elite and to the ruling bureaucracy (the real rulers) will  be heard and perhaps a reasoned debate might ensue - we can but hope!

Of course, an easy prospect for the UK is that the key issue will be the economy and its prospects.  These will surely be enhanced if the austerity policies of the Conservatives, however anemic they have so far been, are preferred to those of the profligate debt-fueled spending proposed by Labour.

So, Prospects and .... abound and the above are just a foretaste but we need the following - and by we, I mean not just the USA and the UK, I mean the 'West' needs the following:

US Republicans to follow the electorate given mandate - no amnesty, reduce America's deficit (debt is perhaps too much to ask for), secure the border and start to repair relations with America's natural allies.  The latter will mean abandoning some of Obama's newly close Islamic allies but so be it.

UK Conservatives go forward on an economic plan founded upon lower taxes and much lower public spending.  Also be clear on Europe, if the UK can't get what it wants from a renegotiation, then we will leave.  It is asinine to go into a renegotiation of terms saying that even if the UK doesn't get what it wants, then the Conservatives will still campaign for continued membership.  Oh and one of those things has to be reduced immigration and zero, nada, zilch welfare benefits for any non-Britons.

So, no amnesty, spending cuts and then we can forget about those ........