2015 - Prospects and ....

I couldn't think of a word for the other aspect of what we face in 2015 but maybe by the end of this we will have it.

Prospects first then.

The new US Congress convenes in January and has a Republican majority in both houses.  I think that has the prospect of being a good thing.  The newly elected members will join incumbents but critically, these 'newbies' will bring with them a clear mandate from the electorate.  Change is needed in Washington.  That means that Congress needs to clean-up its act.  Less 'pork-barrel' politics and more 'American' policies.  Policies that will start to restore America in the eyes of its friends and its foes.

'American' policies?  Well that means no amnesty for a start.  It is 'American' to emigrate to the USA via legal routes not by hopping over the border accompanied by disease-ridden narco-gang members and others who believe that laws are meant for someone else.

So, no Amnesty and a clear statement to the Department of Homeland Security - Congress will de-fund you if you do not secure the border - that's the Southern border, in case you don't know which one.  Congress will de-fund HS if you don't start deporting, in significant numbers all of those illegal immigrants that entered the US during 2014 and then work backwards, year by year.  Who knows?  In the process you may well come across some Al Qaeda  or ISIS terrorists, on the way.  It's a pretty safe bet that some used the chaos that Obama created on the border, to infiltrate the country.

Again, no Amnesty.  Can't say it often enough.

Obamacare will really kick-in in 2015 and it is the duty of Congress to start the process of repeal and then accelerate so that this is done by the end of 2015 and America enters the 2016 election year with a clear choice between Democrats (who voted the ACA through without even reading it!) and want to reinstate it and with Republicans who oppose such socialistic but more importantly unworkable legislation.

Spending has to be reduced.  The people get it but clearly Speaker John Boehner doesn't.  Obama  has always been a lost cause.  Indeed, the same can be said of all Democrats.  Margaret Thatcher once said 'the trouble with Socialists is that eventually they run out of other people's money to spend' and that is where today, America finds itself.  So as well as spending needing to be drastically reduced, Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell must be replaced.  Rep. Trey Gowdy and Senator Ted Cruz or Senator Mike Lee would seem to be candidates that best represent the views of the Republican voters.

Spending reductions are also a prospect for British voters - though, (and this is where that .... creeps in) there is every prospect that the parties in the upcoming General Election will fall over themselves to offer money Britain doesn't have and hasn't earned as electoral bribes.  They don't call it 'pork-barrel' in the UK but the result is the same - unaffordable spending fueled by debt.

A gloomy prospect (there's that ...... again) is that the Scottish Nationalists (SNP)  may hold the balance of power and strike an underhand deal with Labour surrounding yet more transfer of powers to the devolved Scottish Parliament.  It is unbelievable but no less true that the SNP who so solidly lost the Scottish Indpendence Referendum now face the prospect of being the major Scottish influence at Westminster.  It says everything about Labour and their woeful leader, Ed Miliband, that we come to this pass.

Incidentally, while we are on the subject of the SNP, how on earth can they possibly be in the ascendancy when they made such huge play about an independent Scotland's prospects but all based on oil at the 'conservatively' set price of $113/bbl.  Oil is currently half that price and all commentators see oil at greater than $100 no time in the near future!

With Labour and the SNP squeezing on one side the Conservatives face the grim prospect of losing power as they are also being assailed from UKIP.  I think that the electorate distrust the Conservatives on Europe and I can't help but have a sneaking suspicion that the Conservatives wouldn't mind losing the election so that the question of an EU referendum becomes someone elses responsibility/headache.

If the Conservatives do regain power, it will likely be to lead a minority government.  That though doesn't preclude the greatest prospect which is deep and meaningful cuts in UK public spending.  This is long overdue and I sense would receive strong support from the working population, if it was properly presented showing the choice between further indebtedness and future impoverishment and an affordable future for Britain and its children.

Back to prospects and  for the first time in a long time,  Europe and immigration will likely be 'front and centre' in the UK General Election and there is every prospect that contra-opinions to those of the metropolitan elite and to the ruling bureaucracy (the real rulers) will  be heard and perhaps a reasoned debate might ensue - we can but hope!

Of course, an easy prospect for the UK is that the key issue will be the economy and its prospects.  These will surely be enhanced if the austerity policies of the Conservatives, however anemic they have so far been, are preferred to those of the profligate debt-fueled spending proposed by Labour.

So, Prospects and .... abound and the above are just a foretaste but we need the following - and by we, I mean not just the USA and the UK, I mean the 'West' needs the following:

US Republicans to follow the electorate given mandate - no amnesty, reduce America's deficit (debt is perhaps too much to ask for), secure the border and start to repair relations with America's natural allies.  The latter will mean abandoning some of Obama's newly close Islamic allies but so be it.

UK Conservatives go forward on an economic plan founded upon lower taxes and much lower public spending.  Also be clear on Europe, if the UK can't get what it wants from a renegotiation, then we will leave.  It is asinine to go into a renegotiation of terms saying that even if the UK doesn't get what it wants, then the Conservatives will still campaign for continued membership.  Oh and one of those things has to be reduced immigration and zero, nada, zilch welfare benefits for any non-Britons.

So, no amnesty, spending cuts and then we can forget about those ........

November 4th

If you are reading this then you are probably one of those people that care to know what is going on in your world.  That's not to say that this blog is the fount of all knowledge, just that it seeks to provide a view which can add to and inform your overall opinion.

So, you care!

Well come Tuesday November 4, caring isn't enough.  You need to get out and vote on Tuesday and to vote the Republican ticket, all the way.  I have posted here just how important these elections are.  At the risk of repeating myself all Republicans need your vote.  Even if they are RINOs, you need to get out and vote Republican.  Even if they are a 'shoo in' you need to get out and vote Republican.  You need to contribute to sending the strongest possible message to Obama and the Democrats that 'enough is enough!'  The votes for Republicans need to be an expression of America's anger with the damage that Obama has wrought on America.  You have no voice in the media, save for Fox News, so get out and vote and get your family to do so, as well.

Patriot Americans need to take back America.  You can't sit on your hands and say, we will take America back in 2016.  Think of what two more years of damage can be done to your great country, in those 24 months.  Think of the allies that will lose patience with a weak USA and seek new partnerships with other countries.  Think of the people that will die because of the failings of Obamacare or the open door policy to illegal immigration and to Ebola-infected countries.  Do you really want your kids or grandkids to suffer two more years of Common Core?  Do you really want more Americans to die, as they did at Benghazi or as a result of Fast and Furious or more Marines to be incarcerated in Mexican jails because America has a President who is more concerned with his back-swing or follow-through or fund-raising rather than with looking out for the interests of America?  Do you really want your priest's or your pastor's sermons to be investigated because they conflict with a politician's ideas on sexual mores?

At the end of the day, it comes down to this.  If you care for America, then vote Republican on Tuesday.  That is the day that 'We the people' say 'enough is enough!'

Please re-tweet this to all right-thinking people.

Biden better?

Firstly, if you've been reading recent blogs you might think I don't like America or Americans.  You would be very mistaken.  I do like them both and especially the spirit that they have shown and love of life and freedom that has epitomised the 'American way' for so long.

However that doesn't mean I can't be critical.  The criticism comes from a good place though maybe a little bit of a selfish place.  Selfish because right thinking people look to America for leadership and, I suppose, robust leadership, at that.  As in, until recently, America and Americans could be relied upon to do the right thing and support the right thing, up to and including physical material support..  Now though we see different.

We see an America that is too weak to confront Russia over the Ukraine.

We see an America that, in spite of Obama's much vaunted 'pivot toward Asia', allows China to flex its very large military muscles against its neighbors, unchallenged.  Maybe though, that is the price America must pay for being so much in China's debt?

We see America failing to wholeheartedly support Israel against the Hamas terrorist group.  Israel's PrimeMinister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is bang on the money when he says that no nation can stand by and let rockets rain down on its people, day after day, without defending itself.   Let's be clear, these rockets are not like the fireworks that are set-off on 4th of July or New Year.  These pack a warhead of around 20 Kg of explosive material.  That they have not killed thousands of Israeli civilians - Jews and Arabs - is down to the early warning systems, air raid shelters and the so called Iron Dome anti-missile defence system.

Incidentally one positive outcome of the recent campaign by Hamas, is that the main stream media seems to now be spending time and reporting on the effect of those rocket attacks on Israel and reporting on Hamas' use of civilian shields and civilian targets as launch sites!  Previously, the MSM were solidly in the terrorists camp.

But I digress.

We see an America not even able to secure its own border.  Don't worry, there isn't a flood of Canadians swooping down on the Northern states with all of their guns,better hockey players and maple leaf decals.  No, it is the Southern border that is being flooded with illegal immigrants from Central America.  By many accounts, these visitors are bringing serious communicable diseases with them alongside Latino gang members and drug syndicate criminals and, who knows, maybe the odd terrorist or twenty!

It doesn't take too many clicks, on a Twitter feed to find oneself in conspiracy lalaland but.....  There are stories circulating that the Obama administration anticipated this 'invasion' as far back as January 2014 and certainly the availability of all of those Homeland Security buses, which are being used to transport the illegals around the country, suggests a prescience not usually apparent in the administration!

We see an America that allows a decorated US Marine (Andrew Tahmooressi) that made a mistake while driving (took the wrong road and couldn't U turn) and now languishes in a Mexican jail, to remain so, while swapping five very dangerous Taliban terrorists for a certainly damaged and likely a deserting US soldier (Bowe Bergdahl).

At the same time, on this military theme, the scandal at the Veterans Administration, continues.  Indeed, President Obama wants Congress to approve $3.7Bn for aid for the illegal immigrants but isn't asking for an extra cent to provide decent care to those veterans who have loyally served the US.

Do you start to see what I am getting at?  America has lost its way! 

And that is before we look at the Administration's inability to manage its data!  It must be incredibly worrying for Americans to know that the NSA and who knows how many other organisations are snooping upon them and to also know that agencies like the IRS are so incompetent that they can operate computers without damaging hard drives and losing e-mails etc.

Of course there are other scandals that are plaguing the USA, today.  Benghazi, Fast and Furious, Bureau of Land Management, Common Core and ObamaCare, to name just a few.

I keep expecting the US Congress, the Senate and the House of Representatives to stand, almost as one (Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and some of the other drinkers from Obama's Kool Aid stand excepted) and start impeachment proceedings against Obama but it isn't happening.  I can only come to one conclusion.

The Congress is scared.

They are scared that there would be such a groundswell of opinion (not that they pay too much attention to that) and Obama would be removed from office.  Their fear?  When Obama goes, he is replaced by Joe Biden!  On the 'right' the fear is that if Biden was also impeached, then the succession would fall to John Boehner, who many see as a 'RINO'.

Surely though, Biden has to be better than Obama?  Biden would have to see Obama's impeachment as a chastening experience and a sign that the leftward lurch of America and its abandonment of its superpower role and responsibilities needs to stop.  Don't you think?  I just think that America has to take a chance on Biden.  I am apprehensive but look at it this way.   Biden is a Beltway politician.  he understands that he needs to work both sides of the aisle to accomplish anything.  He knows that America has been pulled in an un-natural direction by Obama, Jarret and the Alinsky followers that populate the White House.  Joe also knows that politics isn't just about getting elected because of your skin colour, playing golf and taking vacations.  He understands what America needs far better than Obama ever could.  Can you imagine Biden going to a fund raiser, when a passenger plane containing US citizens is shot down over Eastern Ukraine?

 Go on America, be bold (can't believe I am saying this!) - impeach Obama and get Biden - it has to be better than continuing downwards.

Presidential conspiracy in the US

As a non-American, looking in from the outside, I detect a conspiracy surrounding President Obama.

Much as I dislike the individual and believe he is dangerous for both the USA and the free world, this isn't a conspiracy led by the former community organizer - at least I don't think it is, that's the trouble with conspiracies, you just never know!

No this is about what has happened to the American media.  Have they been so infiltrated by socialists that none have the courage to see that the emperor has no clothes?

Consider:

Benghazi September 11, 2012 - the American consulate is stormed by an armed and intent on murder mob of Islamist fanatics.  Those inside call for help.  US  military forces are available but are ordered to stand-down.  The commanding general balks at this order and is relieved of command.  Four American citizens are brutally abused, including it is said, sexually, and murdered.  One of the four is the US Ambassador to Libya.

The IRS is found to be targeting right of centre groups, and their members, such as the Tea Party.  Initiating tax audits of these people and clearly on the grounds of their political opinions.  In the ensuing investigation, news of profligate spending and waste, by the IRS, surfaces.

John Kerry and President Obama hail a temporary agreement with Iran, as a victory. This agreement allegedly requires Iran to stop uranium enrichment but post the announcements, it seems that some of the Iranian nuclear facilities are not included.  What is included though is that sanctions are lifted on $8 billion that was previously frozen.  So Iran gets what it wants - money and other relief from sanctions that were hurting (as was intended) - and they don't have to actually give-up anything for it!

And then there is Obamacare.  Some say it should be properly called the Affordable Care Act but since it isn't affordable, there is no additional care, it can be seen to be an act, as many conservative commentators have noted.

One of the things that the USA boasts about, is it's technological prowess.  No, really!  So, think about that.  President Obama gave the 'techies' and 'geeks' three years to come up with a website and registration system.   They didn't just fail, they failed abysmally.  Three years and $100s Million and it simply didn't work - and by all accounts still doesn't.  That wouldn't be a problem though because Obama said people could keep their old policies and such, except.....  they can't.  People would not see premium increases or be forced into this or that but...... they are!

There are other instances, such as the NSA spying on Americans, reading their e-mails and listening into their phone calls, as well as spying on supposed allies  (see here:  http://bit.ly/1fny5ka )  and the shameful shutdown of WWII memorials during the government shutdown but you should have the picture by now.

So, how does this super-teflon coated President get away with it?  The answer is because the main stream media is blind, deaf and dumb.  Even now, as some Democrats try to distance themselves from the train wreck that is Obamacare, the media still pushes the 'party line' from the White House.  Okay, you would expect Claire Shipman, ABC senior correspondent, to steer clear of embarrassing the White House Press Secretary, she is, after all, married to the same Jay Carney but what of the rest of the press corps?  Where are the putative Woodwards and Bernsteins?  Or do they only come out against Republicans?

I don't believe that Twitter and other social media is ready to replace the MSM but where else can an American go to hear something that isn't what amounts to propaganda from President Obama?   What has made the media, that were always so savagely anti- George Bush, now so toothless and un-enquiring?  Remember the outright lies put out by the media about Obama's predecessor?  Those are easier to recall than the half-hearted eventual apologies or retractions.

No the Left, and take it from one that has suffered under the yoke of UK socialism, make no mistake,  Obama is a true Socialist and he has fellow 'card-carriers' throughout the media.  The Democrats and the MSM are so in bed together (sometimes literally) that even the complete 'green' bilge spouted by Al Gore goes unchallenged as does his oh so blatant, hypocrisy.

So here's a prediction.  Watch, read and listen to the media in the coming weeks if you like or just know now, that the following headlines will provide adequate coverage of the next round of budget discussions.  'GOP, fearing Tea Party extremists, obstructs resolution of budget issues.'  or 'President Obama stands firm on budget in face of anti-progressive elements in division riven GOP'

2014 is just around the corner and presents Americans with an opportunity to start to take back their country.  Know though that this will be a very hard process.  The socialists move one yard to the left and then the 'right' manage to move one foot back to the right but America is still two foot further to the left, after this dance.  It's time for the 'right' to talk direct to the people and bypass the biased MSM and to move two or more yards to the right - incremental steps to sanity leaves a country too long in a state of madness.

Finally, consider that you won't read anything like this in the American media so make sure that you protect the freedom that Twitter allows us. 

GOP = Gonads Outta Play?

What is it with the US Republican Party, otherwise known as the GOP?

Does GOP stand for Gonads Outta Play?  It certainly seems that many GOP members in the Senate display an amazing lack of courage and they are joined by their spineless colleagues in the House of Representatives.

Of course these folks will be looking at the mid-term elections but is that it?  A potential threat to job security means that principle and integrity is cast aside?

Surely there are some Senators and Representatives (you listening Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan?) who will filibuster any attempt at a deal that doesn't include a reduction in US debt  and the US budget deficit. 

The October 17th deadline is bogus.  The key date is November 1st because that's when big payments become due and maybe the US won't have the money, at that time so there is not the urgency that the White House have concocted.

So why are the GOP playing into Obama's hand?  

Linking the budget approval with Obamacare was surely short-sighted.  All indications are that this programme already contains the seeds of its own destruction (see the numerous stories on the multiplying of premiums that people are encountering and the failing, and failed, online registration system).  However, now things have moved on.

My advice to GOP members is don't get tied-up with Obamacare.  The real, indeed the only, issue, is America's addiction.  The drug of choice is debt or other people's money (taxes to you and me!)

When Obamacare is long-dead and buried the American people will still be suffering  from the spending splurge and debt-overdosing that is occurring day after day.  We are not talking about going 'cold turkey', of completely stopping government spending, but rather of weaning the government of their over-indulgence in spending money that they don't have. 

That should be the whole focus of the GOP and it's activities around the budget impasse and the debt ceiling.  Giving any addict greater and greater access to their drug of choice is never a good idea. 

Einstein said that insanity is  doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results

 So this time, do something different - don't pass the budget, make cuts, don't increase the debt ceiling, stop feeding the beast!

US Shutdown - Questions for Goldman Sachs et al

Goldman Sachs are reported to be claiming that the 'shutdown' of the US Federal Government is costing the US Economy more than $300M a day!  Yes, a day!

As with many news stories, no supporting data is offered - just a self-serving soundbite.  Here's a tip for lazy journalists - ask the questions - how is that number supported and from where do the numbers come?
 
So let's try to think about it on a simple level.

The US Government is not spending money (money that it doesn't anyway have!) and it is doing this by putting employees on unpaid leave.  Is this the >$300M that is hitting the US economy?  If so, how?

What is the saving to the US economy by not having to borrow money to pay these furloughed employees?  Is that shown as a negative in the calculation?

The US military, Homeland Security and the FBI are not sending drones into the skies, to spy on the American people - so that means that they aren't spending money on foreign oil - presuming that the cost is predominantly for the product and not for the US middle-man's profit element,  how does that affect the US economy?

The EPA and other federal agencies are not issuing their usual reams of regulations that impose cost burdens on US business - is that cost benefit included in the $300M number? 

Surely the $300M can't be the daily cost for putting up barriers at places like the WWII memorial to stop veteran's visits? 

I can't believe that the GS number includes taxes and fines and penalties that are not collected, during the shutdown - surely these are simply deferred so no net impact (and they are zero sum anyway!

Here's another question for GS and Wall Street readers - We have heard all sorts of anecdotal evidence from companies across the US, citing by how much their health care costs will rise (and so profits and shareholder returns fall) as a result of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) but how much do you think this will take out of the US economy?  Is it a zero sum game?  So every $ of additional premiums that companies must pay is considered to remain sloshing around in the economy but just being transferred from other parts to the health care and insurance sectors?  Or is this wealth extraction from business seen as destructive to America's ability to invest?


If the GS numbers are correct, think about what that says about the US and its economy.  That the government is such an integral part of the economy that it starts to resemble and mirror the effects that the Soviet and it's satellites had on their economies - they become a or the key component in economic activity and so important that they feed their own destruction.

Of course, maybe GS are right and the number is correct but what would be the actual impact on the economy?  We all know that past shutdowns have led to real measured improvements in GDP so maybe the longer the shutdown, the better the benefit.  Since though this kind of positive data feeds into the 'smaller government is good' narrative, I can kind of understand why GS emphasizes the opposite.