Miliband re-launch sensation

Bet the title caught you by surprise.  Miliband and sensation in the same sentence.  The so-called re-launch might just as easily have passed you by, what with Tesco knocking 30p off of a dozen eggs and still giving Club Points!!  (Just kidding!)

Seriously though.

I would have expected any statement from Ed to have started:

"We are sorry."

"Let me say that again.  We are VERY sorry."

"We got it spectacularly wrong on Public Spending.  We were way too arrogant and conceited when we said we have abolished 'boom and bust' - I was there and I know how we strutted around!"

"We were wrong (boy that is a difficult phrase, to say!) to focus on unaffordable spending and not impose adequate regulation on the banking sector"

"Equally, myself and my other Ed have been wrong to keep on banging on about not making cuts and spending our way out of the recession."

"As a fair-minded member of the media or public, you know I couldn't just get elected and then ditch all these sacred cows, overnight.  Didn't you?  You must have expected me to show some deference to the union chaps that were kind enough to elect me."

"So now I am going to follow David's lead (Cameron that is, not my brother) and try to get people focused on 'responsible capitalism' (got a nice ring to it, don't you think?).  Of course there will be times I will over-step the mark and damage a business or two, but who will really notice? We can always blame that on the policies of the last government (Note to self - should I really say that?) "

"Some are saying that by now my poll ratings should be turning upwards.  Well to them I say, we are three years into this downturn, if the economy can't turn up, why do you expect me to?  I know some would say that with such a gloomy picture, Labour should look to be in a better position but how can I help it if The Guardian can't increase it's readership?!  After all we did for them, with thousands of pages of jobs and stuff - ungrateful, if you ask me!  Same for all those public sector workers - we gave them everything - okay much of it on other people's money but still..... "

Just why does Labour have a problem saying sorry for its mistakes?  It said sorry for Slavery, for the Irish Famine but can't find it in themselves to say sorry for their failings.

We have all heard the expression 'a labour of love'.  Now we know that Labour is the same as Love - it means you never have to say sorry!

Scotland again - Some Clarity?

The Secretary of State for Scotland - Michael Moore -  is to clarify the legal position as regards a referendum on Scottish independence.

Since the power to change the constitutional status of Scotland is a retained power, the legal situation can only be changed by the parliament of the UK - i.e. the one at Westminster.  Alex Salmond and his SNP cronies must know this.  So why all of the bluster about Westminster interference?

I retain the view that the SNP and particularly the wily Alex, both want their cake and to eat it.  They want 'devo max' where they get control of all matters of policy within Scotland while having no responsibility for paying for it.  So they (or the Scottish Parliament) set a spending policy and the cost of this, short of any locally raised taxation, is borne by the UK government and taxpayer.

They want to have a power out of all proportion to their contribution to the UK economy and the UK population.

If they want to look at or have the Scottish electorate look at 'devo-max'  then the rest of the UK must be consulted.  How can they or any sane person think it is right for the Scots electorate to have the right to write a cheque for the rest of the UK economy and people, to pay?

Blogs and comment boards are buzzing since David Cameron's announcement.  I will try and address the various themes here.

Who votes on the Union?
This falls into those that say, only Scotland should vote on the matter versus those that say since it affects the UK, both sides of the border should be consulted.
In some respects I suppose it depends on what is the question.  If it is a simple In or Out then I can have some sympathy with just the Scots electorate being consulted for their advisory position.

If though, the question is wider and looks for greater powers for the Scottish executive, then both sides need to be consulted.

Assuming an In or Out question, whatever the response, the issue still rests with Westminster for action and not Edinburgh.  Clearly that is the legal position.

Who votes?  
This would be the relevant electorate according to the rules usually prevailing in the UK.  If it is a referendum only in Scotland then those resident in Scottish constituencies and eligible to vote, would be entitled to vote - no expatriate Scots, no exclusion of non 'Scots' (whatever that means).  Simple - if you are legally on the electoral register in a Scottish constituency, then you can vote.  Same rules would apply for a UK-wide referendum.


Scottish economy 1
There has been much to and fro on the sustainability of an independent Scottish economy.  I suspect that they would struggle and living standards would decline and both personal and corporate taxes would rise.

I am sure that much will be made of this during the referendum campaign and that we will all be confused and really none the wiser - those so called 'independent' economists will likely have an 'axe to grind' and their own agenda but I guess we may get a reasonable sense of how the Scottish economy might make out.

One point that I hope is addressed, is the relocation, if there is a vote for independence, of the UK government offices that are currently located in Scotland - the central tax offices etc.


Scottish Economy 2
The rules surrounding the UK oilfields are governed by International law and so they will need to be followed.  How to apportion the relevant share of National Debt is somewhat more complex as I doubt this can easily be identified as being for Scottish purposes or for UK purposes.  I would expect that this would need to be proportioned on relative shares of the national UK economy.
This would also need to apply to pension liabilities for civil servants employed in Scotland.

For shares in the nationalized banks, these would be shared on the same basis.  I don't subscribe to the view that the UK should be compensated by an independent Scotland for the bail-out of RBS or HBOS.  What happened when we were in the Union was for the benefit of all of us.   We must start from a point in time and go forward, not go back over  300+ years of history.  

Scotland and the EU
There seems to be an assumption that Scotland will, upon 'independence' automatically be a member of the EU.  I would be interested to hear why people think this is so.  I would suggest that if the independence vote succeeds, then the UK probably ceases to exist and both the UK rump (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and newly independent Scotland would need to apply for membership of the EU. 

This would likely require that both adopt the Euro currency, assuming it still exists at that time.   So in some ways, a referendum on Scottish independence might give all UK citizens the long-denied referendum on EU membership!

I would guess something similar for the UN and the UK's permanent seat on the Security Council would apply and indeed the Commonwealth.

Afterwards
What happens if Scotland is given a vote on a straight In or Out question and the answer is to stay In?  I don't see this as the demise of the SNP but believe that you might see a re-alignment in Scotland with perhaps something less polarized along the left-socialist axis.

If the answer is No, I would hope that having had the referendum and had an answer, the issue could be put to bed for a reasonable period of time  - 25-30 years as a minimum.

Comment
Feel free to comment - I will publish all, whether you agree with me or not, except those that are abusive or use foul language.

UK Foreign aid and Economic Performance.

According to a report on the (still biased) BBC, the economy of Brazil has overtaken that of the UK, during 2011.

As you will see from the table below, produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, Brazil has pushed the UK economy into being the seventh largest in the world.

And you would be right in assuming that the UK continues to give foreign aid to Brazil!  Also to India, which is seen to have the tenth largest economy in the world.  It is difficult to get data out of the Department for International Development but I would not be surprised to see China as a recipient of foreign aid, as well!

While we may think it laudable to provide overseas aid and some consider that the old adage 'charity begins at home' is too narrow minded, how can it make sense to provide aid to countries that have such thriving economies?

When might we stop providing aid to these and, if we must provide aid, give it to those countries that both need it and do not currently have an economy that helps them get up off of their knees?

We regularly hear from left-leaning news media, that 'child poverty' is a growing phenomenon in Britain and at the same time we send funds overseas to relieve 'child poverty' in other countries (something which the self-same left-leaning media, think we do not do enough of!)

I wish someone could tell me how this makes sense.

CEBR World Economic League Table
Rank	2011	2020 (forecast)
1	US	US
2	China	China
3	Japan	Japan
4	Germany	Russia
5	France	India
6	Brazil	Brazil
7	UK	Germany
8	Italy	UK
9	Russia	France
10	India	Italy

Gus O'Donnell interview

The UK Cabinet Secretary (a Civil Service post) retires on December 31, 2011 and has given an interview.

In this, he highlights the three key issues facing the UK;  The EU, The Economy and the Union.

The EU - If you believe some, the UK is isolated and so can expect to have little influence.  Reality though, is we are still a member and as such need to continue to push for reform of EU institutions in spite of what some petty Euro MPs think of us.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100124965/time-for-britain-to-make-the-great-escape/

Click on the above and Open!

The Economy -  Everyone (except Ed 'I think we should borrow more' Balls and Ed ' does my voice sound funny and whiny to you' Miliband) agrees that 2012 is going to be a hard year, and 2013 doesn't look great either!  However, stopping the austerity measures isn't really an option.  Indeed many say the cuts should be deeper and more immediate.

Also, the fate of the economy is inextricably linked to the actions (or rather, non-actions) taken by the EuroZone members.  At some  point, fairly soon, I expect (not wish for) that the financial markets will lose patience and will attack one of the Eurozone members.  I would not be surprised if they took a tilt at France.  The exposure to sovereign debt for French and German banks is worryingly high.

The Union - I have posted before.  Have a referendum in Scotland and one in England and go with the wishes of the people.  No more delay.  I see that Alex Salmond and the Welsh leader, Jones have requested a meeting with Cameron to discuss his handling and us of the Veto at Brussels.  They both full well know that Foreign Policy is a 'reserved' policy and falls outside the ambit of the devolved administrations.  Their comments are posturing such as only petty people can manage.  Time Cameron slapped them down and sent them scurrying back to their Celtic palaces.

I have just re-read the paragraph on The Economy.  Why is it that in the case of Labour, two Eds are not better than none?

Incidentally, Gus O'Donnell is retiring aged 59.  Presumably on a sizable pension linked to his final salary of around  £235K and index-linked for life!

Sod the French

The French reckon UK is in worse economic shape than the 'soon to be rate-lowered' French.

They may be right.

So let's save some money and cut-back on the money the UK sends to Europe.  According to Wikipedia, the below is for 2009.  Can't believe we have paid any less in 2010 or 2011. 

£3.6 billion won't make much of a dent in our debt but it would help to improve care for our elderly or those in fuel poverty.

Might also concentrate some other Europeans and give them pause for thought before they 'slag off' the UK, when we contribute to the EU and they take from it !?!?!

Might also give those pompous asses - sorry MEPs a chance to consider just who it is that is paying fopr their Euro gravy train

Estimates for net receipts from EU budget based on 2009 budget data
(negative amounts show net contributions)^[4]

Country code	Member state	Per capita (euro)	Percentage of GDP	Absolute (millions of euro)
AT	Austria	−59.7	−0.18	−499
BE	Belgium	90.0	0.29	968
BG	Bulgaria	77.4	1.76	589
CY	Cyprus	−34.0	−0.18	−27
CZ	Czech Republic	150.4	1.11	1,575
DE	Germany	−107.3	−0.37	−8,797
DK	Denmark	−211.0	−0.53	−1,163
EE	Estonia	416.2	4.02	558
ES	Spain	9.7	0.04	444
FI	Finland	−113.8	−0.36	−606
FR	France	−100.4	−0.34	−6,461
GR	Greece	267.2	1.30	3,009
HU	Hungary	265.1	2.68	2.66
IE	Ireland	−35.0	−0.09	−156
IT	Italy	−100.7	−0.41	−6,046
LT	Lithuania	438.2	5.33	1,468
LU	Luxembourg	2364.5	3.05	1.167
LV	Latvia	218.8	2.62	495
MT	Malta	17.4	0.13	7
NL	Netherlands	−90.2	−0.26	−1,488
PL	Poland	160.5	1.66	6,119
PT	Portugal	196.4	1.25	2,087
RO	Romania	74.8	1.24	1,609
SE	Sweden	−43.6	−0.13	−404
SI	Slovenia	92.8	0.55	189
SK	Slovakia	88.8	0.78	481
UK	United Kingdom	−62.7	−0.24	−3,865