Labour's defeat

I don't wish to take anything away from the, frankly stunning, victory of David Cameron's Conservatives but the UK GE2015 election results are almost as much about the defeat of Labour as about the Conservatives.

The opinion pollsters will now conduct a post mortem into their abject failure to predict the outcome of the election.  Whatever, they now say, the polls that they published understated support for Conservatives and overstated that for Labour.  I like to think that they got it so wrong because the people that they asked consistently chose to fool the pollsters - otherwise known as lie to them, rather than give them straight, honest answers.   I am no psephologist but I always wonder how polling around a 1,000 people can give any kind of reasonable view or cross-section of the polling intentions of 46 million voters.

Anyway, no doubt the pollsters will enquire and conclude that it was the voters that were wrong and not them.  I can't see many people having much faith in their polls until they have re-built credibility.

So to Labour.

Ed Miliband resigned the leadership of Labour, once it became clear that they had soundly lost the election.  There are some, me included, that think his resignation was about four years too late but......

Now Labour does what it does best.  It will have a leadership election that will solve nothing.  Much as I didn't like Ed Miliband - he just didn't come across as sincere or honest - the biggest problem with Labour was their policies and over-riding that fatal flaw was their absolute unwillingness to accept any responsibility for the financial crisis that the UK faced, at the time of the 2010 General Election.  If I was a Conservative strategist, I would replay to the British public, time and time again, the part of the so called 'Leaders Question Time' where Miliband is asked if Labour overspent and he says no.  The audience reaction of utter disbelief, was surely reflective of the country at large.

Unless and until Labour say sorry for the financial mess, they will always lose on the economy, always.  They spoke, time and again, as did the odious SNP, about cuts and austerity and, did I mention savage cuts?  Yet people understand that while some of these did impact heavily upon some people, overall, these were essential and were handled sensitively.   Labour bang on about the NHS in some sort of proprietorial way but for me, people don't distrust the Conservatives anywhere near as much as Labour think they do or should.  I think that on the NHS, the discussion is moving more towards the Conservative side than Labour understand.  

The reason I mention some of the Labour election platform is that the current candidates for Ed Miliband's position seem destined to repeat the errors of his leadership,

The candidates are

Andy Burnham - I can state categorically that it isn't the whiny voice and his sense of  only he being able to 'really, really' understand and 'really, really' feel the pain of people, that bothers me about the 'emote at the drop of a hat' Burnham.  It his failure to take any responsibility for the 1,300+ unnecessary deaths which occurred in his beloved NHS, at Mid Staffs and elsewhere, when he was in-charge of the NHS.  Read the horror of Mid Staffs here  Simply put, Burnham has displayed very serious character flaws.  That and his allegiance to old-style Labour re-distributionist policies show him to be out of touch with the aspirations of people. Some other posts on the NHS are here  and here

Yvette Cooper - Can sound a little shrill at times but her most serious flaw, aside from being tied to out-dated policies, is that she is the wife of Ed Balls.  I can't speak to what attracted her to Balls nor what keeps her there but surely, at some recent point in their relationship she should have been able to convince Balls that he and Miliband needed to apologise for the financial mess and to take responsibility for it.  If she cannot persuade the man who shares a bed with her, of the massive errors of the party platform, then what faith can anyone have in her ability to negotiate on behalf of the UK or firmly deal with her union paymasters?  Every time I see Yvette Cooper, I think Ed Balls and I immediately think financial mess.  Maybe that's not fair, but that is my reality, and I would suspect that of many others.

Chuka Umana - Should narcissism be a qualifying condition for the leadership?  Every time I see Chuka, I see someone that seems more interested in how he looks and if his tie matches his suit and shirt etc.  Editor in Chief of GQ magazine  - maybe but far too lightweight to lead the Labour Party.  Imagine if you will, horror that it might be, that Labour is in power and Chuka has to face down Len McCluskey  of Unite regarding a series of public sector strikes and also to contend with aggressive moves from Putin's Russia and, at the same time, Daesh attacks in the UK.  Can you see that and see Chuka with any kind of the required knowledge and experience or gravitas?  Umana has been described (by himself?) as the UK's Obama.  Seeing how the former Community Organiser, Obama, has created great divisions within the US and promoted failed policy after failed policy, and destroyed America's standing in the world.  Should Labour elect someone with such aspirations?

The other declared candidates.  
Liz Kendall  I know little about, which maybe is a good thing because she maybe isn't painted into that 'we didn't overspend' corner and without such baggage may be able to provide Labour with a policy platform that focuses on the needs and aspirations of real people rather than a metropolitan elite.
Tristram Hunt - His opposition to Michael Gove's education reforms should automatically disqualify him - again, his adherence to party and union dogma seeks to override the aspirations of people.


Like many people, I find that Labour has nothing to offer me or my children.  Fundamentally, that is their problem.  The leadership is much less relevant.  Miliband's ineptitude with a bacon sandwich didn't help.  His inability to say sorry was a key factor - a clear character flaw. At the end of the day though, it always come down to policy and Labour had nothing to offer today's voters.  Until they get that right, it doesn't matter who they chose as leader!

2014 Predictions

Well, if journalists can do this, why can't I?

Scotland will vote to remain in the UK and not seek independence, though it will be a closer-run thing than many first predicted.  Indeed, (hedging bets here) it may yet go the other way given the lack-lustre performance of the No campaign and the reluctance of the UK parties to engage and promote the Union.

The UK (read South-East England) will not be flooded by Romanians and Bulgarians.  Total immigration will be less than 20,000

Pope Francis will continue to amaze the world with his humility and engagement.

Vince Cable will manufacture an excuse to leave the Coalition, at the start of the second half of the year.  Then he will successfully challenge Nick Clegg for the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party and lead his party to its eventual near annihilation at the 2015 General Elections.

President Obama's Democrats will suffer heavy poll reverses in the mid term elections.  This despite some Republicans seeming to spend more time attacking Tea Party activists than their liberal opposition.

Calls for a full investigation of the horrific events that occurred in Benghazi will gather strength but until the new members are sworn-in, most of the action will be on Twitter, where the Justice for the Benghazi 4 movement will gain increasing traction.  So Hillary remains safe for now but the eventual investigations will haunt her 2016 bid and make her wish she had got them out of the way, with a more compliant Congress.

In a move to improve efficiency, France's Socialist government will enact legislation to cut out the middle-man and have all wages paid direct to the State's tresor.  Apart from making it easier to identify those that exist or participate in the 'black' economy (not a racist statement, before any liberals complain), this will also reduce stubbornly high unemployment as more tax-collectors are hired.

Greece and Italy decide to not follow the French example - rumours that this is because some many of those countries' politicians operate within the 'black' (still not racist) economy will not actually be proven but nevertheless will abound.

The UK's Labour Party will formally change it's name to the Labour,Welfare and Minority Interests Party and will officially abandon any pretence of representing actual workers.

Ed Balls, in a move designed to avoid being sacked by Ed Miliband, will challenge him for the party leadership role.  In a close-run race, Len McCluskey, leader of the UNITE union,  will emerge as the winner, even though not a participant!

UK Prime Minister, David Cameron will react to Labour's attacks about the Cost of Living 'crisis' by abolishing the so called Green Taxes.  This will anger his Lib Dem partners but Cameron will tell Clegg it is the price to pay for support of Clegg's candidacy for a EU Commissioner role.

Cameron will also face internal opposition from those who accuse him of being a TINO (Tory in name only) and such opposition will increase following the Euro elections at which all parties will do badly, except UKIP, who score spectacularly well.  Indeed, it is only the Euro-sceptic MEPs, like Daniel Hannan, that retain their seats on the Euro-Gravy-Train.

The European Commission and Parliament will continue to enact directives that strengthen, on paper,  the undemocratic nature of their rule and which ignore the voices of the European people, expressed through the ballot boxes. 

 Youth unemployment in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy will continue at high levels that will haunt those countries for years to come.  Ireland too will continue to export its problem by large-scale youth emigration and the country will pay its price for EU inspired de-population with large-scale issues around unfunded pension liabilities - as in most countries, pension payments require a working and contributing mass of young people, to be viable!

Moves will continue to seek the impeachment of President Obama but while the mood in America will be marginally in favour, Congress will continue to not represent the will of the people and so Obama will continue in office but will find Congress much less compliant, especially as high-profile cases showing the effects of Obamacare's failures hit the headlines with increasing frequency, as even Obama's media supporters bow to pressure to stop hiding the truth.

China will continue to expand its economy but will be less involved in buying US Treasury bills and funding America's deficit and debt mountains.

Brazil will host the football World Cup but organizational problems will mar the occasion.

Russia will use a very heavy hand to confront their domestic terrorists and will ignore the 'human rights' whining from the West.

Then there are the predictions that are border-line wishes.......

Arsenal confound the doubters and not only win the English Premier League title but also complete a remarkable treble by gaining  victories in the FA Cup and the European Champions League.

David Cameron uses one of the many recesses that the UK parliament enjoys and reads-up on what it means to be a Conservative and then, in an amazing transformation decides to start to implement such policies.  Consequent upon this, Cameron corners Nick Clegg and explains to him the outcome of opposing the changed approach and advises that the Tories will rule in a minority government rather than continue to pander to the idiotic and damaging policies of the Lib Dems.

Notwithstanding the earlier prediction, moves to impeach Obama become a central policy plank and receive wide-spread and united Republican support.  Worried Democrats, pick-up on the public mood and  transfer their allegiance to the camp pushing for the ouster of the would-be Emperor of the Free World.

Difficult to know whether any desires relating to the US Supreme Court, supporting the US Constitution and the American people count as predictions or wishes.  Will they strike down the 'Executive Orders' that are being repeatedly issued by America's ruler, in contravention of the US Constitution or will they continue to pursue a 'leftist' and un-American agenda?

As a choice, this would be a profound wish - that the scales fall from the eyes of politicians around the world and the eco-nonsense ends as soon as possible.  Not only this though, but in an unprecedented attack of common sense, the world's politicians immediately repeal all of the restrictive eco-laws that have so negatively impacted the world.  If, in the process, Al Gore and the climate science lobby were convicted of gross fraud, then that would be an added bonus! 

I could go on.  I have probably thought this before but this time I will say in print, I sense that 2014 will herald some significant changes for America, the UK and Europe.  

 

Money raising idea for the Treasury and The Justice Ministry

Thinking about how relatively easy it has been to raise £250K in the Julian Assange bail money situation, prompts me to wonder.  The over-burdened British taxpayer hasn't had to stump up this just those foolish enough to believe in Assange's integrity.

Since it is always those on the left that manage to get their right-on friends to finance their bail and write indignant letters to The Guardian couldn't we have a different way of financing the Ministry of Justice?

How about we arrest leading 'lefties' and then allow them to be bailed and then drop them off outside the Ecuadorean embassy, when they are released?  I have nothing against Ecuador or it's people but since you have Jules it would be 'cruel and inhumane' to not give him some playmates.

So, who to arrest?

I thought about Gordon Brown - crimes against the British people - tons of gold sold for a song - economic mis-management on an epic scale - that funny glottal thing he does when he speaks (must be a crime against the English language - but then I thought who would put up his bail?  No, I couldn't think of anyone, either.

But we could look at:

• Ed Balls - criminal lack of apology for his part in the economic mess - criminal lack of economic sense or a coherent policy, other than 'look if we keep digging we will all have a nice big hole'!
• Ed Miliband - same as Ed Balls but with the added crimes of near fratricide and also that weirdly adenoidal speech (what is it with Labour and speaking strangely?)
• Harriet Harman - criminally culpable for being Harriet Harman and for assaulting the rights of all women by assuming that need her interference and that of her government of nanny-staters to promote women's rights rather than letting women claim their elevation in any organisation is theirs by right and merit rather than because of some 'tokenism'.
• Will Self and Owen Jones - So right-on and up themselves that their own self-importance and certitude would ensure that The Guardianistas would be frothing at the mouth as they sign their surety cheques.
• Polly - don't even need to say the surname but the crimes are numerous and all involve self-righteous stupidity at the core - mind you, if there was the opportunity for a counter to bail, putting up money to keep her in solitary and us from her rants, that might raise more money.
• Lord Leveson and that Jay fellow - All of those leftie QCs would put up the bail since they can see he will be a godsend for their 'profession' .
• George Galloway - Surely his freedom would be worth something amongst the radicals that form his core support.
• David Dimbleby - criminally bad taste in ties on QT plus constant interruption of his limited range of guests and thinking that people tune it to listen to his opinion.
• Alex Salmond - deceiving the Scottish people for personal aggrandisement - an especially high bail to be set so as to see if we can prise some money from all those mouthy expat Scots who speak of independence but chose not to live in Scotland -  a kind of hypocrite tax..
• Nick Griffin - bail to be set astronomically high - we wouldn't want him to get out.  Crime - too many to mention but maybe 'just for balance would do?

 Feel free to suggest others but if this is taken up as an economy measure, I expect a share of the proceeds.
  
One worry though, who would the BBC get to run Britain down, if not the above? 

Diamond leads - Labour to follow - get serious!

So now that Bob Diamond has taken the hint and had the decency to fall on his (probably well compensated) sword, what can we expect from the politicians?

Principally, I mean the likes of Ed Balls and Ed Miliband and of course, the man himself, Gordon - no more boom and bust - Brown. 

It is probably way too much to expect that they would have the decency to resign - remember, these are the same guys who have yet to apologise for massively over-spending and leaving the UK economy in such a parlous state.

Mind you though, maybe it is best that they don't go.  Maybe it is best that they (or at least the 2 Eds) are around to try and explain that they are neither the 'Senior Whitehall sources' nor the initiators of those people that gave a 'nod and a wink' to Barclays. 

At some point, these economic 'giants' (that's a code word which translates, outside of Labour Headquarters, to economic idiots or incompetents) need to be called to account, along with their almost equally culpable cabinet colleagues.

Health Tip:  Please don't hold your breath waiting for any of the Labour leaders to own up and say they got it wrong.  The only things they learnt, from 13 years in power was how to spend other peoples money (taxpayer's, our children's and lender's) and how to dissemble.



 

Ed Balls and Tax

The 'Shadow' Chancellor, Labour's Ed Balls, has proposed some ideas for the upcoming UK budget.

• A 2.5% cut in VAT or
• A 3% cut in income tax, for a year or
• Higher tax credits or
• Bringing forward the increase in tax free pay

Each proposal would cost £12 Billion.

He is only proposing to do one of these (I think).

The idea is that any of these would provide a boost to the economy by putting money into the pockets of lower earners and they would then spend it, etc.

The last proposal 'bringing forward the increase in tax free pay' is pure mischief making.  He knows it is Coalition policy.  He knows that it is something that is close to the heart for the Lib Dem members of the coalition and so just seeks to sow some division!

Higher Tax credits?  I can't help but feel that we need less welfare dependency - a whole lot less - and this doesn't do it.  People should get to keep more of their money not have to pay it into the government coffers and then be given it back!

3% cut in income tax for a year.  A short term boost but, it might then lead to a permanent cut.  I can just imagine, 12 months after this has been implemented, that Balls would be saying ' the removal of this time-bound policy, would lead to a flight of confidence from the economy...............'  In my view taxes should be cut and then stay cut!

A 2.5% cut in VAT - Make it 5% and make it permanent.  Enshrine in law that the maximum permitted VAT can be 15% and can only be increased by way of a referendum!  Also, remove VAT completely from energy costs.  This latter is trapping many people in 'fuel poverty'.

My budget ideas

1. Scrap the minimum wage for those under 25
2. Undertake a complete review of all HS&E legislation with a report due back within 6 months.  Starting point is  that all legislation should be scrapped.  Any that are found necessary to be maintained, must be fully costed as to the economic impact for the country.
3. Apply same process to Equality legislation with a view to capping compensation levels at £100,000 and equalizing cap for all forms of  discrimination. 
4. Remove the 50% income tax level
5. Reduce the entry level income tax rate from 20% to 15%
6. Reduce the new high income tax rate, from 40% to 35%.  So we have two levels 15% and 35%.
7. Cut Employer NI contributions, on all new employees hired after budget date to zero for first three years
8. Plan to incorporate personal employee NI contributions into Income Tax inside of  a couple of years and cap at 10%
9. Increase personal tax free allowance to £15,000
10. Means test supplementary payments to pensioners.  Rich OAPs do not need the Winter Fuel allowance, etc..  However, any money saved, from a 2011 baseline cost, should then go to the remaining pensioners.  We're all in this together! 

How to fund this?

• Dramatically cut back and restrict salary levels at the top of all publicly funded organizations.
• Treat MPs the same as other tax payers - they must pay taxes on expenses.
• Undertake a complete review of all Quangos with a report due back within 6 months.  Starting point is that all should be scrapped.  Any that are said to be necessary to be maintained, must be fully costed as to the economic impact for the country and the results published.  Then hold a referendum and a number (say something less than 50) selected to be retained.  People get to vote on say, 5 of however many and the top 50, in vote terms, stay, the rest get closed.
• Relative to the above (and, I know pre-judging) implement a hiring freeze on all Quangos.
• Reduce funding for Wales, NI and Scotland, equivalent to the amount that they subsidize university education and health care compared to that which applies in England - that is, set a level playing field!
• Cut Corporation tax by 10% and give a 5 year tax-free holiday to any new manufacturing company that establishes and manufactures in the UK.

I am sure I can think of more and I will return to this, shortly.

The balance - do like Ed Balls always says Borrow.  I think though that the stimulating effect would reduce the actual borrowing need.

Ed Balls, Labour and the S word

Sorry really does seem to be the hardest word for Labour!

Ed Balls is now saying that Labour supports a pay freeze for Public Sector workers and won't seek to reverse expenditure cuts.

On Public Sector pay he said:

It is now inevitable that public sector pay restraint will have to continue through this parliament. Labour cannot duck that reality and won't. There is no way we should be arguing for higher pay when the choice is between higher pay and bringing unemployment down.
I know there will be some people in the trade union movement and the Labour party who will think of course Labour has got to oppose that pay restraint in 2014 and 2015. That is something we cannot do, should not do and will not do.

And on the expenditures cuts he said:

My starting point is, I am afraid, we are going to have keep all these cuts. There is a big squeeze happening on budgets across the piece. The squeeze on defence spending, for instance, is £15bn by 2015. We are going to have to start from that being the baseline. At this stage, we can make no commitments to reverse any of that, on spending or on tax. So I am being absolutely clear about that.

There was some additional waffle and some luke-warm support for the other Ed but nowhere does he say Labour was again wrong on the economic issues - nowhere.  I have scoured the leftist blogs (its okay I was wearing disposable gloves so I don't think anything rubbed-off) - but nowhere do I see the S word.

As I said earlier, Labour can apologise for the 1848 Irish potato famine, they can apologise for the UK's role in the slave trade but economic failure, failure to adequately regulate the banking sector  - nothing to say sorry for, according to their leftist vision. 

Ed Balls was at the very heart of the incompetency that was Labour's economic 'policy'.  Not on the periphery, he was an economics advisor to Gordon Brown (sorry for using such bad language) and  then he became a government minster, all the while, being one of Gordon's inner cabal. 

Labour supporters must be in a whirl - how can the cuts be wrong one minute (per the 2 Eds) and suddenly ok the next.  Same for the pay freeze.  Flip-Flopping in Westminster used to be confined to MPs and their second homes but now Ed Balls has brought this into a core area of Labour policy.

Can I expect them to support my campaign to get Grantham to properly recognize Margaret Thatcher?

Gus O'Donnell interview

The UK Cabinet Secretary (a Civil Service post) retires on December 31, 2011 and has given an interview.

In this, he highlights the three key issues facing the UK;  The EU, The Economy and the Union.

The EU - If you believe some, the UK is isolated and so can expect to have little influence.  Reality though, is we are still a member and as such need to continue to push for reform of EU institutions in spite of what some petty Euro MPs think of us.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100124965/time-for-britain-to-make-the-great-escape/

Click on the above and Open!

The Economy -  Everyone (except Ed 'I think we should borrow more' Balls and Ed ' does my voice sound funny and whiny to you' Miliband) agrees that 2012 is going to be a hard year, and 2013 doesn't look great either!  However, stopping the austerity measures isn't really an option.  Indeed many say the cuts should be deeper and more immediate.

Also, the fate of the economy is inextricably linked to the actions (or rather, non-actions) taken by the EuroZone members.  At some  point, fairly soon, I expect (not wish for) that the financial markets will lose patience and will attack one of the Eurozone members.  I would not be surprised if they took a tilt at France.  The exposure to sovereign debt for French and German banks is worryingly high.

The Union - I have posted before.  Have a referendum in Scotland and one in England and go with the wishes of the people.  No more delay.  I see that Alex Salmond and the Welsh leader, Jones have requested a meeting with Cameron to discuss his handling and us of the Veto at Brussels.  They both full well know that Foreign Policy is a 'reserved' policy and falls outside the ambit of the devolved administrations.  Their comments are posturing such as only petty people can manage.  Time Cameron slapped them down and sent them scurrying back to their Celtic palaces.

I have just re-read the paragraph on The Economy.  Why is it that in the case of Labour, two Eds are not better than none?

Incidentally, Gus O'Donnell is retiring aged 59.  Presumably on a sizable pension linked to his final salary of around  £235K and index-linked for life!