So what can we expect from the Greek Election?
Based on the latest polls and the positions of the various parties, the 'stay in the Euro' camp has overwhelming support.
The actual outcome of the vote though, hangs in the balance between those parties that simply want to mildly 'tweak' the bailout and those that want to radically alter it or even tear it up.
Both camps depend on strange bedfellows actually co-habiting New Democracy and Pasok? Syriza and Golden Dawn?
Interestingly, the anti-bailout parties at least command something close to a majority - a government of national unity while they re-negotiate then new elections? Might sound tempting.
The worrying thing is the impact that the election is forecast to have on the Euro and the Eurozone economies - particularly Spain and Italy. Consider though that from an economy position, relative to the rest of the Eurozone, Greece is very small and unimportant. This suggests that the 'market' which is infinitely smarter than EU politicians, has moved on from Greece and now the focus is Spain and the underlying concern is the Euro itself and its in-built contradictions.
Italy might survive seeing great pressure by selling off its massive gold reserves. Say what you like about Berlusconi, he's no Gordon Brown! I honestly can't believe I wrote that - Berlusconi smarter than Brown - now there's a thing!
The smart money has to be on continued capital flight from Spain and increasingly so from Italy. Imagine all that 'black economy' Italian money just sliding over the border (if it isn't already there!)
We live in dangerously interesting times.
My prediction?
I don't think that this election will solve too much for Greece but once it's out of the way, where does the Euro and Spain hide?
Based on the latest polls and the positions of the various parties, the 'stay in the Euro' camp has overwhelming support.
The actual outcome of the vote though, hangs in the balance between those parties that simply want to mildly 'tweak' the bailout and those that want to radically alter it or even tear it up.
Both camps depend on strange bedfellows actually co-habiting New Democracy and Pasok? Syriza and Golden Dawn?
Interestingly, the anti-bailout parties at least command something close to a majority - a government of national unity while they re-negotiate then new elections? Might sound tempting.
The worrying thing is the impact that the election is forecast to have on the Euro and the Eurozone economies - particularly Spain and Italy. Consider though that from an economy position, relative to the rest of the Eurozone, Greece is very small and unimportant. This suggests that the 'market' which is infinitely smarter than EU politicians, has moved on from Greece and now the focus is Spain and the underlying concern is the Euro itself and its in-built contradictions.
Italy might survive seeing great pressure by selling off its massive gold reserves. Say what you like about Berlusconi, he's no Gordon Brown! I honestly can't believe I wrote that - Berlusconi smarter than Brown - now there's a thing!
The smart money has to be on continued capital flight from Spain and increasingly so from Italy. Imagine all that 'black economy' Italian money just sliding over the border (if it isn't already there!)
We live in dangerously interesting times.
My prediction?
I don't think that this election will solve too much for Greece but once it's out of the way, where does the Euro and Spain hide?
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